Thursday Night Football, 1.20am, Sky Sports
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) @ Tennessee Titans (1-4)
Line: PIT by 6
It took Tennessee 49 minutes to score in the thrashing by Minnesota last Sunday. RB Chris Johnson can't do anything (15 carries for 17 yards) and the otucome of this game will be irrelevant whether starting QB Jake Locker is back from injury or not. Pittsburgh won a tough, defensive battle against the Eagles, and their intermmediate passing game should rip the Titans apart. Steelers rusher Rashard Mendenhall returned to action last week and his physical running style will be ideal against a soft Tennessee run-defense. This game will get ugly - fast. I'll be fast asleep by halftime.
Pick: Steelers (31-12)
Bet: PIT -6
Value Bet: Titans U19
Sunday, 6pm, Sky Sports
Oakland Raiders (1-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (5-0)
Line: ATL by 9
This game will feature arguably the best receiving corps in the NFL going up against arguably the worst secondary in the NFL. Falcons QB Matt Ryan is having an MVP type season so far, and I can't see Oakland mounting any challenge whatsoever. Though the Raiders will be fresh off a bye, it really doesn't matter. The offense is a mess, QB Carson Palmer has lost considerable arm strength and the only place in the Atlanta defense that has any weakness is on deep-downhill throws. Without that available, the Raiders will ride RB Darren McFadden, but will have to revert to the passing game once they fall behind. In Atlanta, that won't take long.
Pick: Falcons (38-17)
Bet: ATL -9
Value Bet: Julio Jones (ATL) first touchdown scorer
Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) @ Cleveland Browns (0-5)
Line: CIN by 1
Now this is a trap game. The Bengals bungled their way to a damning loss at home to the Dolphins as 3.5 point favourites last week, while the Browns were up by two touchdowns in New York against the Giants before being resoundly beaten to a pulp. If the Browns can stay away from errors, they should be in good nick to cause an upset here, especially with talented CB Joe Haden back to cover Bengals All-Pro receiver A.J. Green. We learned against Miami that the Bengals struggle against a dominant front-seven. The Browns front-seven isn't neccessarily dominant, but it could be enough to worry QB Andy Dalton. I think the key in this game is impressive rookie runner Trent Richardson, who has scored a touchdown in each of the last four games. With Browns QB Brandon Wheeden progressing, Richardson isn't seeing eight defenders gunning for him on every play, and his physical running style combined with his speed could see the Browns edge this one.
Pick: Browns (23-21)
Bet: CLE +1
Value Bet: Trent Richardson first touchdown scorer
St. Louis Rams (3-2) @ Miami Dolphins (2-3)
Line: MIA by 3.5
I've picked the Dolphins to lose every game so far, and I've been proven wrong twice. That is mostly to do with their defensive line, which has been monstrous so far (Cameron Wake - 5.5 sacks), but also due to rookie QB Ryan Tannehill, who has really surprised me. Tannehill missed reps in training camp over a contract dispute, and he was hastily thrown in as starter after injuries to Matt Moore and David Garrard, all of which seemed the perfect concoxtion for a tough start. But Tannehill has played about as well as you could expect of him thus far, if not better. The Dolphins' victory in Cincy was just as good as the Rams' win over the then-undefeated Cardinals. Though Sam Bradford played terrible (7-for-21 completed passes), the St. Louis defense made up for it by battering Cardinals QB Kevin Kolb to the tune of nine sacks and a combined 32 hits and hurries. That's outrageous. The Rams lost their best receiver in Danny Amendola to a dislocated shoulder, and with him gone, Bradford's remaining targets are sub-standard (Brandon Gibson, Chris Givens). With the dominant D-line of the Dolphins shutting down the St. Louis run-game, this could be a very long day for Bradford and co. The Rams best chance to win is once again through their defense causing turnovers.
Pick: Dolphins (27-13)
Bet: MIA -3.5
Value Bet: Bian Hartline (MIA) first touchdown scorer
Indianapolis Colts (2-2) @ New York Jets (2-3)
Line: NYJ by 3
The Jets surprised me this past Monday, losing by only six to the Texans. It's bad for the Jets when "only losing by six" is a positive. With QB Mark Sanchez yet again proving he's not a worthy starting quarterback (48.4% pass completion through five games), the Jets used backup Tim Tebow to minimal effect and CB Antonio Cromartie as a receiver. That is just awful. I know the Jets are without probably their best two players in WR Santonio Holmes and CB Darrelle Revis (maybe the best defender in the league), but it just shows how thin they are at every other position. The only player on the Jets right now that's worth anything is center Nick Mangold. And he can't win games by himself. If I'm a Jets fan, I'm praying for West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith in the draft next April. But I digress. The Jets are terrible, they are having to try wacky things on offense and pray they can score on defense and special teams. When you have to install gadget plays for your offense, it's not a good offense. The Colts rallied against the Packers and "won one for the coach" so to speak as HC Chuck Pagano is in hosptial being treated for luekemia. Rookie QB Andrew Luck had an impressive day, racking up 362yds passing and three total touchdowns (two pass, one run) and he has the potential like his predecessor Peyton Manning to do this every week. The Colts will be without RB Donald Brown and have a lack of depth at receiver, and if Antonio Cromartie covers Reggie Wayne as well as he covered Andre Johnson of the Texans last week, it may become a little difficult for Luck. However, the Colts defense is looking a lot stronger with the likes of Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis and Cory Redding rushing the passer. Mark Sanchez, be warned.
Pick: Colts (23-20)
Bet: IND +3
Value Bet: Duane Allen (IND) anytime touchdown scorer
Detroit Lions (1-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-2)
Line: PHI by 3.5
It's a strange year for the Eagles, they're dominating on defense (only five passing touchdowns against) and in the run-game through Shady McCoy, but turnovers, mainly from QB Michael Vick are costing them dearly. The 16-14 defeat in Pittsburgh last week looks like a tough-luck loss, but really, the Eagles should have got the job done. Vick turned the ball over with a costly fumble at the Steelers two-yard line, and then coughed it up at midfield on the next possession. Vick is responsible for a whopping nine turnovers (6 interceptions, 3 lost fumbles) already this season. You have to think if this continues, then Philly will turn to backup Nick Foles, but that won't happen unless it gets REALLY bad. The Lions are a good team to get the Eagles back on track this week. Their porous secondary should provide plenty of points and the offense is out of sorts after so much expectation was placed on them in the offseason. After QB Matt Stafford threw for 5,000 yards and 31 touchdowns last season, everyone expected his form to continue, but with a banged-up run game and some costly drops (even from all-world receiver Calvin Johnson), the Lions have struggled to score. Against this Eagles defense, it's going to be a tough ask for the Lions to come away with anything. Stranger things have happened though, and these Eagles flip and flop on the predictability scale from week to week.
Pick: Eagles (28-20)
Bet: PHI -3.5
Value Bet: Brent Celek (PHI) anytime touchdown scorer
Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3)
Line: TB by 4
Now this is a change-the-channel game. Two teams that just suck right now. The Chiefs lost QB Matt Cassell to a concussion (which was actually cheered in Kansas City last week) so first-round draft bust Brady Quinn will start in his absence. Brady Quinn is a name that does not strike fear into a defensive player's heart. Honestly, this game could go either way. The Chiefs have looked good when they hand it off to RB Jamaal Charles and their defense has the potential to be really, really good, but the big problem is the quarterback, and in today's NFL, that's the paramount position. The Chiefs should have beaten the Ravens last week. Charles was gashing the Baltimore defense for eight yards a carry, but turnovers and bad QB play cost them dearly. The defense held the Ravens high-scoring offense to just three field goals, but when your offense is a mess, you only score six points. The Buccaneers are coming off a bye and should be able to win here. Their offense is out of sorts too, as they're struggling to form any sort of rhythm in the run-game. With the Chiefs quality in the secondary, it will likely be hard for WR Vincent Jackson to get any separation at all, and this will go down to the wire because of it. I'll be amazed if more than two offensive touchdowns are scored.
Pick: Buccaneers (17-12)
Bet: TB -4
Value Bet: U36.5pts
Dallas Cowboys (2-2) @ Baltimore Ravens (4-1)
Line: BAL by 3.5
After their ugly MNF defeat at home to the Bears, the Cowboys now embarque on five very tough games, four of them on the road. After this, they travel to Carolina, host the Giants, and then travel to Atlanta and Philadelphia. I think Dallas will be very lucky to come away with two wins. The Cowboys offense is very lacklustre at the moment. RB DeMarco Murray was tipped for a great season, second-year receiver Dez Bryant was meant to overcome his off-field issues and be a better quality receiver, and QB Tony Romo was supposed to keep up his good play. But as always the Cowboys are good on paper just not in real life. The Cowboys receivers let Romo down against Chicago with drops and tipped balls that became turnovers and now they face an aggressive, turnover-happy Baltimore defense. Romo threw five interceptions against the Bears, and now he has to face future hall of fame safety Ed Reed. It's almost unfair. The Ravens were sloppy and out of control against the Chiefs last week, and the Cowboys defense could surprise if they get an early lead, but in QB Joe Flacco's house, this should be a relatively easy win for the Ravens. The Cowboys struggle mightily against teams that involve the running back in the passing game, and that's where Ray Rice excels. With a bye week to recover from the loss, the Cowboys might as well be playing this on a short week. The Ravens should manhandle them.
Pick: Ravens (28-17)
Bet: BAL -3.5
Value Bet: Ray Rice first touchdown scorer
Sunday, 9.05pm, Sky Sports
Buffalo Bills (2-3) @ Arizona Cardinals (4-1)
Line: ARI by 4.5
On paper, this should be the game where the expensive defensive line of the Bills crushes Cardinals QB Kevin Kolb. And in reality, it really should be. The Cardinals offensive line is easily the worst in football, and it's amazing that HC Ken Whisenhunt isn't doing anything about it fortmation wise. He's rarely putting in a tight end to help block or a running back to chip any rushers and RT Bobby Massie is getting killed one on one on almost every snap. This week he has to face the $50 million dollar man -- Mario Williams. Mario isn't your average pass-rusher, but has been playing like one as of late. Opposite end pass rusher Mark Anderson has been ruled out indefinitely. The Bills were destroyed by the ten point favourite San Francisco last Sunday, while the Cardinals lost in St. Louis ending their undefeated start to the season. I believe the Bills will get going early on with C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson in the run game, and should be able to hold a lead from there due to the aformentioned troubles with the Cardinals pass-blocking. This won't be a glamour tie, and Kolb might not be there to see it finish.
Pick: Bills (21-17)
Bet: BUF +4.5
Value Bet: C.J. Spiller first touchdown scorer
New England Patriots (3-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (3-2)
Line: NE by 3.5
It's amazing how the Patriots can keep changing their offense yet still remain dominant. The last two seasons have seen them go from a team highly dependent on short-to-intermmediate throws to slot-receivers and tight ends, to multiple tight-end formations with the dominant Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, to a very balanced offense. The Patriots are riding three running backs, two of them rookies, and the offensive line is showing great strides in their run blocking. The pressure is off QB Tom Brady at the moment, as he and coach Bill Belichick can trust the run game to win matchups and get points on the board. That is where Seattle are struggling right now. They have a dominant defense, but their offense has been below average (save for a Cowboys defense that couldn't defend the Seahawks' run options) and QB Russell Wilson has struggled to produce much at all. Seattle have a Pro Bowl calibe receiver in Sidney Rice but he's barely been involved due to Wilson's inability so far. I think the Seahawks are in for a tough game here, and while their stadium is built to guarentee their fans are the loudest, I doubt it will be enough to slow down Tom Brady and co.
Pick: Patriots (30-14)
Bet: NE -3.5
Value Bet: Stevan Ridley (NE) first touchdown scorer
Sunday, 9.25pm, Sky Sports
New York Giants (3-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-1)
Line: SF by 6.5
The 49ers are the most entertaining team in the league by far. Every snap has the potential for something fun. On offense, there's big plays in both the pass and run games, and on defense there's always a chance for the talented trio of Justin Smith, Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman to level a receiver or destroy a quarterback. Throw in the Colin Kaepernick option stuff with defensive tackles lining up at full back, and this is just like a college team. A really talented college team. The Niners tricked and brutalized their way to a 45-3 win over Buffalo, and they did something they haven't done since the 1960s -- they had a 300yd passer, a 100yd rusher and two 100yd receivers. HOF QBs Joe Montana and Steve Young and Jerry Rice (the best receiver of all-time) never managed that feat! As for the Giants, they went down early to the Browns due to some poor defense and a turnover, but rallied through their running backs (243yds combined) and receiver Victor Cruz (3 touchdowns). Without Hakeem Nicks, the Giants have reverted to the run-game, and obivously it was very succesful, but they go up against probably the best defense in the NFL, certainly the best run-defense in the NFL, and they will have to change things up. Alex Smith is struggling with a finger injury but should play on Sunday. This rematch of last season's NFC title game will be just as close, but this time the Niners will come out on top.
Pick: 49ers (24-20)
Bet: NYG +6.5
Value Bet: Colin Kaepernick anytime touchdown scorer
Minnesota Vikings (4-1) @ Washington Redskins (2-3)
Line: WAS by 2
Two teams that have caused upsets and surprises, moreso Minnesota as they have compiled a 4-1 record so far and QB Christian Ponder looks like a totally different player. They say a good quarterback makes a considerable leap in their second year and Ponder is playing to a high level thus far. On the other side is Washington's number two overall draft pick, QB Robert Griffin III, who has played about as well as a Redskin fan could hope, but last week against Atlanta he suffered a concussion on a devastating shot from LB Curtis Lofton. Griffin was said to not know what the score was or the quarter they were in during his evaluation. Despite all of this, the injury has been reported as a "mild" concussion, which absoloutely baffles me. I want to know how you can mildly rattle your brain around in your skull. Griffin has said that he expects to play in this game but if he doesn't. fellow rookie Kirk Cousins will fill in as he did against the Falcons. Minnesota surprised me last week by pummeling the Titans. I expected the 6 point underdog Titans to cover, and they were terrible. The Vikings so far has been impressive with Ponder, RB Adrian Peterson and RB/WR/KR Percy Harvin, but more surprisingly their defense has been terrific. I don't think it matters who lines up under center for the Skins, this should be an away win. The Redskins defense did well against an unexpectedly groggy Atlanta offense, but with injuries to their pass rush I expect the speed combination of Peterson and Harvin to once again carry the Vikes.
Pick: Vikings (26-21)
Bet: MIN +2
Value Bet: Percy Harvin anytime touchdown scorer
Sunday Night Football, 1.20am, Channel 4 Green Bay Packers (2-3) @ Houston Texans (5-0)
Line: HOU by 3.5
Despite being favoured by a touchdown last week in Indianapolis, the Packers could only muster two second-half field goals as the Colts caught up from an 11 point defecit and beat them with little time remaining. Now Green Bay has to travel to the AFC title favourites, but I don't think they should feel too disadvantaged. The Texans have shown little weakness so far, as their record would have you believe, but I think the Packers match up well with them. Even though Houston have stud receiver Andre Johnson, I think the rest of the passing game has taken a hit. Then again, they've barely had to go to the air at all. The Packers have struggled to limit quarterbacks, and gave up 212yds and a touchdown to just Reggie Wayne of the Colts. The Packers are better suited to defend the run, which is Houston's best attribute, so that side of the ball will be very interesting to watch. The other side could be ugly. Though the Packers have a brilliant offense, they are not playing to the standard they have set the past few seasons, and a lot of that is on injured receiver Greg Jennings, the lack of a run game, and a woeful offensive line. The latter two could turn out to the be the focal point for this game as the vaunted pass rush of the Texans will be on full-display, and defensive player of the year candidate J.J. Watt will be looking to add to his already staggering total of 8.5 sacks. With the threat of Packers QB Aaron Rodgers having to take a lot of hits, it won't surprise me if Green Bay keeps extra blockers on most plays, which will then hurt their attack as Texans CB Jonathon Joseph is outstanding in man-to-man coverage. With Packers RB Cedric Benson out for potentially the season, Green Bay will hope James Starks and Alex Green can revitalise their rushing offense and give Rodgers some much needed help.
Pick: Texans (31-28)
Bet: GB +2.5
Value Bet: Andre Johnson Over 90.5 receiving yards
Monday Night Football, 1.30am, BBC Red Button/iPlayer
Denver Broncos (2-3) @ San Diego Chargers (3-2)
Line: SD by 1
Down by a touchdown against the Saints with just seconds to go last week, Chargers LT Jared Gaither was visibly injured, barely ablt to move his back. As the Chargers quickly lined up to get another play off, NBC commentator Cris Collinsworth said the game would end here on a sack of QB Philip Rivers by Martez Wilson if they didn't get Gaither out of the game or give him help. And Collinsworth nailed it. Wilson stripped the ball from Rivers and the Saints recovered to end the game. A brilliant call at the time, but looking back - why didn't anybody do anything about it? Couldn't HC Norv Turner see there was something wrong with Gaither? In the NFL, you can't trust a player to say he should come out of the game the same way players have kept injuries quiet to make sure they don't lose their job to the backup or lose their job entirely. Either way, the Chargers lost a game they looked comfortable in for a long time, and turnovers (and a bad interference call on Antonio Gates) cost them dearly. The Broncos lost handily in New England, when they too should have been very much in it. RB Willis McGahee had a fourth down drop and a fumble in the red zone that wiped off some valuable points, and in this divisional game mistakes like that can't be repeated. A win for QB Peyton Manning and Denver here ties the lead for the division, but I believe the Chargers will come out on top. Though Denver's pass-rush of Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller are impressive, the Broncos have some gaping holes in their defense, and I'd look for Rivers to make some big players to his deep-ball receivers (Malcom Floyd and Robert Meachem). Manning shouldn't have too much difficulty against the Chargers defense, though their front seven could cause a few problems. I can't imagine McGahee doing too much either as the Chargers run defense is much improved as of late.
Pick: Chargers (27-24)
Bet: SD -1
Value Bet: Robert Meachem anytime touchdown scorer
