The Rotation of a Lifetime

Pitching wins championships.

That notion was lost in the steroid-fuelled nineties, but last year's Giants proved the saying is well and truly back. Working with three pitchers who could be aces on a number of teams, the Giants beat the Rangers with their pitching (and some fluke clutch-hitting from Edgar Renteria of course). Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez (the three aces) had help from the surprisingly impressive rookie Madison Bumgarner, and the four teamed up to allow just eight runs in five games, clinching the Series with Lincecum tossing eight innings of one-run ball.

Pitching wins everytime. You can have a beefy offense, you can have that home-run king who'll knock fifty out of the park every season, but bats don't clinch playoff-berths, nevermind championships. Adam Dunn has hit at least 38 home runs every year since 2004, and he has no rings to show for it. Tim Lincecum has won two Cy Young awards, and he just claimed his first ring last year. Of course, Dunn and Lincecum are not the blueprints for the league, but it shows what is needed to win a championship. It sure helps to have a big-hitter, but it's the lockdown pitcher you need.

Pitching is more than half the game. Of course it is. If a pitcher does his job and gives up no runs, it leaves the offense with just one run to have to score to win the game. This is all obvious I know, but the pitcher sets everything up. You could say the hitters set the game up. That they jump ahead with a big lead and give the pitcher less to worry about, but I say the pitcher holding the opposition to a hit or two only sets up the offense as his opponent has to pitch like-for-like. That pressure forces the lesser pitchers to crack, and gives the offense the window to get their run.

Pitching is what will drive the Phillies this season. One of the Fightins will win the Cy Young this season. How can one of them not? Without throwing a collective pitch, this is the greatest rotation to ever bestow the city of Brotherly Love.

This offseason the Phillies added Cliff Lee. The 2008 AL Cy Young had a cup of coffee in Philadelphia in 2009, culminating with a pitching masterpiece in game one of the World Series against the Yankees. Lee threw three complete games in just 12 starts, and the city took to him like a long lost son. Lee was then shipped off to Seattle for another cup of coffee (where better?), before being traded to Texas last summer. A free agent to be after the World Series, Lee spurned long-time friend CC Sabathia and the Yankees to join the Phillies for a reported $120 million over five years. What's funny is that despite the number of dollars in that contract, he'll be the Phillies second starting pitcher this season.

It's pretty obvious who's first. It's the guy that tossed a perfect game, posted a 2.34 ERA, won the 2010 NL Cy Young and threw the first postseason no-hitter since Don Larsen in 1956. It's Roy Halladay.

Acquired in the trade that sent Cliff Lee to the Mariners, Halladay had a remarkable impact with the Phillies in his first season. He's the ace of this team, and no one can take that from him. I think it's fair to say he's earned it. Halladay is 1. Cliff Lee is 1A (or two).

Number three is Cole Hamels. The 2008 World Series MVP had a bounceback year after struggling in 2009 and complaining of tiredness. Despite poor run support, Hamels went 12-11 last season (like a less dominant Felix Hernandez), achieving a career low ERA of 3.06, and a career high in strikeouts with 211.

Number four is Roy Oswalt. The longtime Astro joined the Phillies last year after veteran Jamie Moyer went on the disabled list. Oswalt played to his hype and more, posting a 7-1 record with a 1.74 ERA in 12 starts. He started last season with Houston as an ace, and now he's the fourth starter. That tells you everything you need to know about this rotation.

Finally, number five. The average Joe. Joe Blanton to be precise. But will he be throwing the first pitch on 6th April (the fifth game of the season) against the Mets? I have my doubts. Blanton has been centre of any trade talks the Phillies have been rumoured to be in as the the club will be paying him $8.5m for each of the next two seasons. The Phillies could still move him if they find a potential suitor, but that's the difficult part. Blanton was up and down in 2009, finishing with an unimpressive 4.82 ERA. Not many clubs will want to pay $17m to a middle of the rotation type guy. The Yankees are most likely to bite if Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia don't work out in Spring Training. If the Phils do manage to move Blanton, they'll likely give Vance Worley the number five slot. Kyle Kendrick hasn't shown enough in recent seasons and likely won't get many starts (if any at all).

While I've hyped this rotation as much as any other writer, I'm not saying the Phillies are destined to win 120 games. The all-time record is 116 wins (by the 1906 Cubs), and I think the Phillies will fall short of that. I do however see them clinching triple digits in the W column. The increase in talent, provided it plays the way it has up to this point, should mean easier matchups every step of the way. Cole Hamels will be facing number three starters, and Roy Oswalt will be facing number four starters. You have to think those are automatic victories every-single-time.

Time will tell though.

The Phillies offense will likely be less impressive as last year as Jayson Werth has departed to the nearby Nationals. His shoes are left to be filled by Domonic Brown. The 23 year-old was okay last season in limited play. He hit .210 with 13 hits and two home runs in 35 games. On the bright side however, is that Brown has added 15lbs of muscle this offseason and considerably lowered his batting stance. And really, can Brown strikeout 147 times like Werth did last year? Possibly, but with any impressive rookie, you expect early success before pitchers can figure him out.

If the Phillies win the World Series, it will be their pitching that wins it for them.

Pitching wins championships, right?

Andy Carroll and Moneyball

"It's every young Geordie lad's dream to be a Newcastle United number nine and I'm so lucky to be given that chance."
- Andy Carroll, 20th July 2010

Six months later, Carroll is now with Liverpool. For £35 million, the Reds snapped up the England international, and depending on who you hear it from, he either handed in a transfer request or was forced out. I'm sure you can guess which story is Carroll's.

This is the state of football these days. There is never a transfer fee which can't be paid. The clubs simply have too much money, and the players can't resist the high wages that come with the pricetag. In 1996, Alan Shearer showed his colours as he turned down the bright lights of the red half of Manchester to join his hometown club Newcastle United (albeit for a world record of £15 million at the time). Though Newcastle bid the most for him, I bet Manchester United could have paid Shearer more in wages.

How can Carroll leave his hometown club? He claims he was forced out by coach Alan Pardew, but Pardew insists Carroll handed in a transfer request after Newcastle rejected Liverpool's first bid of £30 million. If Carroll did that, he clearly has no loyalty, and it was all for the money. Dane Whitehouse, a boyhood fan of Sheffield United, played his entire career for the Blades during the 1990s. He was sought after by many Premier League clubs throughout his tenure and not once did he ever consider leaving. That's a player staying faithful, something if Carroll handed in a transfer request, is the polar opposite of.

If Carroll was so proud to be wearing the number nine shirt for Newcastle, how can any old club come in, wave some money at him, and pry him away so easily? Carroll is reportedly now earning £80k a week.

If Andy Carroll was forced out, then my humble apologies, but his chequered past and his demeanor off the field just makes me think he was all for this move.

"Alan Shearer was my idol as a young lad and who would have thought I'd be following in his footsteps?"
- Andy Carroll, in the same interview last July

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Now, for the Liverpool side of the story. What on earth drove them to pay £35 million for a player whose only promise is his potential? He's unproven in the Premier League. Carroll managed to score 19 goals in the Championship last season, and has tallied 11 this term, but it doesn't mean he's going to set Liverpool alight and propell them to 'another title.'

Liverpool's argument for the their efforts on transfer day is simple. They only spent £2 million. They sold Fernando Torres to Chelsea for £50 million and Ryan Babel to Hoffenheim for £5.8 million. They bought Carroll for £35 million and Uruguayan international Luis Suarez from Ajax for £22.7 million. When you look at it like that, money wise, it doesn't seem so bad. But that isn't what sticks out. What sticks out is the ludicrously high price they paid for Carroll.

Prices for English football players are always hiked up these days. Why? There probably isn't one answer. I'd say it's because every big club wants to own the 'next big British talent'. Look at the likes of Wayne Rooney and Theo Walcott, each snapped up after brief playing time for their first clubs (Everton and Southampton respectively). Manchester United paid £25.6 million for the eighteen year old Rooney, and Arsenal paid an eventual £9.1 million for the sixteen year old Walcott. This is the way it works, and it will continue for years to come. If the big clubs can't nurture their own kids in their academies, they'll pay the big bucks for someone elses.

This Carroll transfer strikes me as ridiculous for the most part because when Liverpool were taken over by Boston Red Sox owner John Henry, he installed his men to control the club using the teachings of Moneyball.

Moneyball is a term coined by Boston Red Sox front-office man Bill James, who argued that clubs should use sabermetrics to evaluate players (like on-base percentage), rather than through typical stats (like runs-batted-in and batting average). The complicated look at evaluating players meant the teams that generated little revenue like the Oakland Athletics could compete with the big spenders like the New York Yankees. How this can be extrapolated to football? I'm not sure. I'm sure there are in-depth statistics PAID EMPLOYEES at Liverpool can look into. Maybe stats of how many succesful headers a centre-half wins, or the number of crosses by a winger led to a scoring opportunity. There has to be some kind of stat these new guys at Liverpool are looking into.

So they sell Torres and Babel for a combined £55.8 million and buy Carroll and Suarez for £57.7 million. How can a proven Premier League striker like Torres be replaced by someone like Andy Carroll. Since his move from Atletico Madrid, Torres has notched 65 goals, scoring once every 121 minutes -- a Premier League record. Chelsea have paid a lot of money for a quality player, something I can't knock, but Liverpool in my opinion have overpaid by far for Carroll.

Couldn't they have found a cheaper option, perhaps abroad? A similar pricetag to the one they paid for Suarez? Apparently not.

The Final Four

Four teams remain, and the off-season is (sadly) on the horizon. This season has gone too fast for my liking. But it always does. When the Super Bowl is over, then comes possibly the most boring seven weeks of the year. No NFL and no baseball shift my focus to basketball and hockey, and they can only provide me with only so much excitement. The NFL is a different entity. Every game is different, for the better or worse, and there's always something to talk about (quiet, Panther fans).

Luckily for the NFL, the off-season pretty much only lasts two months. Soon enough you've got the college prospects holding their pro days, the draft, mini camps and training camps, and before you know it, the pre-season has come back around.

The only hitch this off-season is whether the NFL and NFLPA can formulate a new collective bargaining agreement so we don't have a lockout on our hands (what on earth will I do without the NFL for a year?)

Anyway, we have four teams left, so let's get to the games...

NFC Championship
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
They split their two divisional games this season, most recently with the Packers winning 10-3 to get into the playoffs in week 17 against a Bears team with nothing to play for. The media have spent most of the week talking about two things:

1) Soldier Field. We all know the field is ridiculously high-school-level and shouldn't be played on, but it's the NFL. These guys are pros and should be able to play on sand if called to. I think Aaron Rodgers could play on gravel and put up four touchdowns at this rate with his recent form (well, maybe not). The field has been said to be in 'better shape' this week, but you can't drastically improve a field in just over a week. If it's dry in Chicago tonight, there shouldn't really be a problem, but if the weather turns and the field becomes muddy, this could be a very defensive game.

2) Referee Terry McAulay. The first matchup between these two in week three was officiated by McAulay's crew, who called the Packers for 19 penalties (18 accepted). The media have yammered on all week about how this will impact the game, but it's a moot point. In the playoffs, head referees don't officiate with their usual crews. The best back judges, line judges, etc. get the nod and their rightful place in the playoffs. Terry McAulay didn't throw all 19 flags in that game, did he?

I think it's a difficult game to predict, obviously it's between two of the NFL's best teams, and games like this are always tough to pick. I think the Packers edge out the Bears. I just see the Packers offense and Jay Cutler's weekly brain fart to hamper the Bears. The Packers passing attack is vastly superior to the Bears' and Cutler will be throwing at Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams, who are playing like lockdown-corners right now.

Prediction: Packers 24 Bears 20

AFC Championship
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The Jets have been here before. They beat Pittsburgh in the snow in week 15. Two major factors in that game favoured the Jets considerably though:

1) Brad Smith's kickoff return touchdown to open the game. You can't bank on a KR TD every time you play the Steelers. Maybe in 2009, when their special teams unit gave up four KR TDs. Smith had no other impact in the game, rushing once for two yards being his only other contribution.

2) The absence of Troy Polamalu. With no Polamalu, there was a massive hole in the Steeler D. Mark Sanchez was sacked only once, something I expect the Steelers to do repeatedly tonight. The addition of Polamalu changes the game so much. Don't expect to see Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards team up for 14 catches and 140 yards again. Polamalu will be blitzing a lot in this game to begin with, and dropping back when the Steelers take the lead (which they will). Mark my words, Polamalu will have a huge impact on the outcome of this game.

So what do the Jets do to combat the Steelers? On offense they can't stick with the run-game, because eventually they will just end up going three-and-out constantly. The Steelers run defense gave up a staggering 62.8 yards per game, 27.3 yards less than the second-ranked Bears (the Jets were third with 90.9 ypg), and that's a wall that just isn't going to break. Dustin Keller might have to take the game on his shoulders and go up and get some balls he might not want to -- when Polamalu could be gearing up to knock his head off.

On defense, the alignment of all-world cornerback Darrelle Revis is an issue. Where do you play him? In week 15, Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders combined for 180 yards, while Revis, who was covering Hines Ward, had two catches for 34 yards. I don't see Ward as the main threat in this game. I'd line up Antonio Cromartie with Ward, and have Revis playing man on Mike Wallace. Drop safety Brodney Pool to shadow Ward/Sanders and have Eric Smith blitzing regularly. Then again, I'm not Rex Ryan, and he could surprise us with his selections.

I think this game comes down to who can sack the other team's quarterback the most, and with Troy Polamalu back on board, I can't pick against Pittsburgh.

Prediction: Jets 13 Steelers 17

Here's a reminder of what tonight is all about, courtesy of NFL.com