Tuesday, 13 April 2010
Huge Trades, The Draft, and Liars in the NFL?
The Front 7
1. The biggest news of late has to be the trade of Eagles QB Donovan McNabb to the Redskins. The controversial inter-divisional occurred this past Sunday (just in time to steal the thunder of the Yankees-Red Sox opening night game for MLB). All signs pointed towards Oakland for McNabb, but he instead finds himself in Washington under the guidance of new head coach Mike Shanahan. The obvious comparisons between McNabb and John Elway have already been drawn. Elway never won a Super Bowl until he had Shanahan coaching him, McNabb has eleven years of NFL service under his belt and still has no ring. This must mean the Redskins will win the Super Bowl, right? Not so fast.
2. In return, the Eagles received the Redskins 2nd round draft pick (#37) and based on McNabb's performance, a 2011 3rd or 4th round pick. The interesting note to come out of this, was that Albert Haynesworth's name was brought up in trade talks. It is widely known that Shanahan isn't fond of the $100 million Defensive Tackle after he chose to work out with his personal trainer and not join his teammates for OTAs. It still came as a surprise when ProFootballTalk reported the Redskins offered Haynesworth in a man-for-man trade for McNabb. Unsurprisingly, the Eagles turned it down for a number of reasons. One, they have productive defensive line play already, and two, just like every other team, they don't want to touch Haynesworth's expensive contract. In the mean time, it's being reported that Shanahan will take as little as a 3rd round pick for him, which shows how much he thinks of him.
3. The primary beneficiary of this trade is Kevin Kolb. He's learned under McNabb for three years and shown in two starts (against the Saints and Chiefs) that he's more than ready to fill no.5's shoes. Kolb has proven to be a leader already in his short career. Reports have circled since last season that many players would come to him, and not McNabb, for advice and help. The Eagles are a much younger team now following the departures of McNabb and Brian Westbrook, with all offensive starters under the age of thirty. Kolb, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant and breakout TE Brent Celek should be able to grow together and become a very successful offensive unit. Kolb has all the playmakers he needs, now he just needs to show he can make the Eagles win when it counts.
4. Rex Ryan and the Jets are courting Jason Taylor. The 35-year old DE/OLB of the rival Dolphins is mulling an offer from the Jets to be primarily their 3rd down pass-rusher. Vernon Gholston has proven to be a bust thus far, and he'll find himself only on special teams if he doesn't improve. If Ryan and fellow veteran LaDainian Tomlinson can persuade Taylor that they can win, and win now, Taylor may find it hard to stay in Miami for a second time, especially when Ryan is offering Taylor at least 25 snaps a game (that would make him more than just a 3rd down guy, right?). Speaking of the Jets, Kellen Clemens has finally opened his mouth this off-season. Like many backup Quarterbacks in the NFL, he wants to start. Unless he can persuade Bills HC Chan Gailey to trade for him, he hasn't got a chance of starting anywhere. If players like Michael Vick and Troy Smith (who have openly stated they want to start elsewhere) can't get look-ins, Clemens is definitely not going to get one. Well, there's always Oakland.
5. Ross Tucker's article on NFL front offices being full of liars caught my eye today. Tucker explains what great individuals these men are, but finds it hard to see why they lie to the media. He says Andy Reid lied to him about McNabb not being on the trade block, and that he shouldn't have. Lying is a part of business. Reid couldn't come out and tell the other thirty-one teams that McNabb was available, as that would only serve to devalue him. The Eagles had to put up a front that they were keeping him so they could drive up the price.
6. Brian Westbrook is still without a team, and you have to question whether he even wants to play again. Last season, Westbrook only started seven games due to suffering two concussions. He voiced that he was scared for his health, and with a lack of interest being shown in him so far, you have to think he'll retire if no one comes in for him after the draft in two weeks. Green Bay have reportedly brought him in for talks.
7. Finally, the blockbuster trade that happened Sunday. The Steelers shipped troubled Wide Receiver and former Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes to the Jets for a 5th round draft pick. The fact that the Steelers didn't let trade talk play out for a while to try and get a higher pick speaks volumes of how fast they wanted him gone. This must surely serve as a wake up call to Ben Roethlisberger. Holmes will miss the opening four games of the 2010 season due to the NFL's substance abuse policy, so it's no wonder the Jets managed to get a true no.1 wide-out (79rec-1,248yds-5TDs in 2009) for such a low price.
About Last Time...
I said the Rams have to take Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy. I was wrong, they need to improve their Quarterback play first, and that starts with Sam Bradford... The Bears were the team that gambled on Julius Peppers, not the Patriots. They gave him $91.5m/6yrs... Torry Holt and Terrell Owens are still without teams. One of them will surely end up in Tampa Bay or Chicago... Mike Holmgren did indeed pay Josh Cribbs. The Browns rewarded him with $20m/3yrs, which has to mean an increased amount of plays on offense... Antonio Cromartie was traded, just to a team I didn't expect – The Jets. With Darrelle Revis shutting down the opposition's main threat, Cromartie will be free to play his aggressive press coverage that burned him so many times in San Diego... The Steelers let go of free-agent RB Willie Parker, and he joined the Redskins to form the best backfield of 2006 (with Clinton Portis and Larry Johnson)... Brandon Marshall is still in Denver. I have to believe that Broncos HC Josh McDaniels will crack by the draft and accept as low as a second round pick for the out of favour receiver.
Mock Draft
With the Draft only nine days away, here's my predictions on who will go where.
1.Rams - Sam Bradford (QB)
Bradford should be a lock here. He wowed the St. Louis scouts with an excellent pro-day, and is clearly the best Quarterback in this year's draft.
Alternatives: Ndamukong Suh (DT); trading down for more value in a deep draft.
2.Lions - Ndamukong Suh (DT)
Suh will transform the Lions D-line which now features Corey Williams and Kyle van den Bosch. If you're gonna stop guys like Adrian Peterson, you need to be able to stuff him at the line. Suh's explosive power should have a major impact on opposing offenses.
Alternatives: Russell Okung (OT); Trent Williams (OT); Bryan Bulaga (OT); Eric Berry (S); The Lions O-line isn't great, and rookie stand-out Louis Delmas could do with an explosive partner at Safety. Suh is the right choice though.
3.Buccaneers - Gerald McCoy (DT)
The Bucs need help at almost every position except Quarterback. The best player available is McCoy. Tampa Bay ranked dead last in rush yards allowed last season, and in a division which has DeAngelo Williams and Michael Turner, the Bucs need a great run-stuffer like McCoy.
Alternatives: With the amount of needs the Bucs have, trading down would be smart. Other than that, Eric Berry (S) would sure up a pass-defense that just couldn't defend the deep ball last season.
4.Redskins - Russell Okung (OT)
They've got McNabb, now they need to protect him. The O-line was a sieve last year, giving up 46 sacks to a mobile QB who managed to throw the ball away at the last second anyway.
Alternatives: There isn't much. The only other possibilities are Bulaga and Williams. Their young defense is good enough. It's the offense that needs immediate help, and McNabb can only do so much.
5.Chiefs – Bryan Bulaga (OT)
GM Scott Pioli lives by the best player available (BPA) rule. With that in mind, the best OT is likely to land in Kansas. They would be better off trading down, needing help at DE and in the secondary, but Bulaga could be the best lineman in the whole draft.
Alternatives: Eric Berry (S); Derrick Morgan (DE).
6.Seahawks – Eric Berry (S)
Seattle need a playmaker on offense, and will be tempted to take RB C.J. Spiller, but the correct decision has to be Berry. With comparisons to guys like Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu, the Seahawks need to be able to stop teams throwing all over them like they did last season (3rd worst in pass defense).
Alternatives: Other than Spiller, HC Peter Carroll could take an OT, or a corner like Joe Haden. Wide Receiver Dez Bryant is probably a reach at this position, especially with questions looming over his attitude.
7.Browns – Joe Haden (CB)
The Browns do have more pressing needs at DE and WR, but if they go by BPA, Haden has to be their choice. The tandem of Haden and recent acquisition Sheldon Brown will be extremely valuable against Quarterbacks like Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer and Joe Flacco.
Alternatives: Derrick Morgan (DE); Jason Pierre-Paul (DE); Dez Bryant (WR).
8.Raiders – Derrick Morgan (DE)
As always, it's hard to predict who Al Davis will take. Each pick is usually more baffling than the last. I'm giving crazy Al the benefit of the doubt, and say the Raiders will make the smart pick in either helping their run-defense, or going with an OT.
Alternatives: If the Raiders do go OT, it would be hard to see them not pick up Bruce 'King of the Bench Press' Campbell.
9.Bills – Trent Williams (OT)
After trading away Jason Peters to the Eagles last off-season, the Bill Offensive line was nothing short of abysmal (46 sacks against). They need to protect whoever wins the job at QB.
Alternatives: Jimmy Clausen (QB) – Nothing screams mediocre more than Ryan Fitzpatrick, Trent Edwards and Brian Brohm. Clausen impressed scouts at his Pro day this week and is rising up draft boards around the league. Dan Williams (DT) also fits the new 3-4 defensive scheme HC Chan Gailey is installing.
10.Jaguars – C.J. Spiller (RB)
The Jaguars need a change-of-pace Running back, but more importantly a playmaker on offense. Maurice Jones-Drew was left by himself to make plays for the Jaguars and he could only do so much. Spiller has game-changing potential.
Alternatives: The Jaguars released the disappointing Torry Holt and could do with a premium talent at WR. Dez Bryant would be a huge upgrade, but reports have emerged that the Jaguars front office have concerns over his character.
11.Broncos – Dez Bryant (WR)
Brandon Marshall will be dealt by draft day. He could go for as little as a low 2nd round pick due to coach McDaniels willingness to get rid of the Wide Receiver. As soon as he's dealt, the Broncos need a new no.1 receiver. Dez Bryant is the man for that role.
Alternatives: A defensive back like Earl Thomas (S) or Kyle Wilson (CB) could do well under the guidance of veterans Brian Dawkins and Champ Bailey.
12.Dolphins – Dan Williams (DT)
Bill Parcells is known to take the safest pick possible, and with starting DT Jason Ferguson suspended for the first eight games of the season, Dan Williams is the perfect choice.
Alternatives: If Bryant is on the board, you would think Parcells would cave for a player with so much upside. Other than WR, Earl Thomas is a possibility at Safety.
13.49ers – Anthony Davis (OT)
With the 49ers owning two 1st round picks, they should address their most pressing needs in OT and CB. They may have to take Kyle Wilson here if they think the three teams sandwiched between their picks like him. For now, I'll say Wilson does fall to them at 17, so the 49ers can pick up Davis at this selection with some relief.
Alternatives: Kyle Wilson (CB)
14.Seahawks – Ryan Mathews (RB)
After addressing the defense with Eric Berry, the Seahawks need a spark on offense. Ryan Mathews can be their playmaker while the Hasselbeck-to-Whitehurst transition takes place at Quarterback.
Alternatives: Demaryius Thomas (WR) would be a reach here, so an offensive lineman like Charles Brown (OT) or Mike Iupati (G) wouldn't be a bad choice.
15.Giants – Rolando McClain (LB)
Most mock drafts have the same. McClain almost feels like a lock to the Giants, especially after they cut starting inside Linebacker Antonio Pierce at the end of the season.
Alternatives: The Giants front seven on defense needs big help. If they don't take McClain, they should take Jason Pierre-Paul (DE) or Brandon Graham (DE).
16.Titans – Jason Pierre-Paul (DE)
After losing Kyle van den Bosch, the Titans clearly need front seven help. Pierre-Paul is a freak of an athlete and could wind up beating 'The Freak' Jevon Kearse for a starting job.
Alternatives: In the AFC South, it's all about stopping Peyton Manning. Kyle Wilson (CB) has to be on their radar.
17.49ers – Kyle Wilson (CB)
As I said, the 49ers will be lucky if Wilson falls to them here.
Alternatives: Earl Thomas (S). Any defensive back would be a good choice.
18.Steelers – Mike Iupati (G)
After the loss of Santonio Holmes, the Steelers will be tempted to take a WR, but they first need to be able to give Ben Roethlisberger time in order to throw to anybody. Iupati is a force in the trench.
Alternatives: Demaryius Thomas (WR). The Steelers can always wait until the 2nd round to pick up a wide receiver. The likes of Golden Tate, Arrellious Benn and Riley Cooper are attractive at no.52 if they're still available.
19.Falcons – Earl Thomas (S)
If Thomas falls this far, it'll be a major coup for Atlanta. The Falcons need more than just recent acquisition Dunta Robinson in the secondary to help stop Drew Brees twice a season.
Alternatives: Kareem Jackson (CB). I wouldn't rule out Brandon Graham (DE) either.
20.Texans – Kareem Jackson (CB)
After trading away Dunta Robinson, the Texans should logically take the best available Cornerback or Safety.
Alternatives: If Ryan Mathews falls don't be surprised if he goes here.
21.Bengals – Jermaine Gresham (TE)
The Bengals shortcomings in the passing game were badly exposed by the Jets. Darrelle Revis shut down Chad Ochocinco twice, leaving Carson Palmer with abysmal stat-lines (19/47-146yds-1TD-2INT COMBINED). Any kind of receiver is wise at this point. Jermaine Gresham is head and shoulders above any other Tight End, and could be an Antonio Gonzalez-type pass-catching TE.
Alternatives: Demaryius Thomas (WR).
22.Patriots – Brandon Graham (DE)
Needing youth on defense, the Patriots have to take a pass-rusher here.
Alternatives: Wide Receiver is a possibility with Wes Welker likely to miss half the season due to injury. Demaryius Thomas (WR) would be a smart pick-up. An athletic Tight End like Arizona's Rob Gronkowski could be a sleeper here.
23.Packers – Charles Brown (OT)
Though the Packers line play improved towards the end of the season, it was exactly that that finished their season. Rodgers was sacked (once again) and fumbled, leading to the Cardinals 51-45 win over the Pack with a defensive touchdown.
Alternatives: The other pressing need is Cornerback, so Devin McCourty is the other logical selection. They could wait until the 2nd round for someone like Patrick Robinson or Chris Cook though.
24.Eagles - Devin McCourty (CB)
After trading away Sheldon Brown, the Eagles need immediate help. They can't possibly go into the season with Ellis Hobbs starting. If McCourty is still available, he should go here.
Alternatives: If McCourty is gone however, an offensive lineman like Maurkice Pouncey or one of the linebackers from TCU (Jerry Hughes or Daryl Washington) would make sense. Pass-rush is another need, and with Carlos Dunlap available, they could go with him.
25.Ravens – Carlos Dunlap (DE)
The Ravens may look at Wide Receiver, however I think with the acquisitions of Anquan Boldin and a motivated Donte Stallworth, the Ravens should go defense. Their starting defensive line is getting old and needs to be addressed.
Alternatives: Demaryius Thomas (WR); any defensive back. Taylor Mays (S) could be a shock pick here.
26.Cardinals – Jerry Hughes (LB)
After letting Karlos Dansby and Adrian Wilson go in free agency, the Cardinals must surely be drafting on defense with their 1st round pick. In the case of BPA, Hughes is the likely pick.
Alternatives: Sean Weatherspoon (LB); Sergio Kindle (LB); Taylor Mays (S)
27.Cowboys – Taylor Mays (S)
Anything can happen in the draft, and after the Cowboys cut Ken Hamlin last week, I have to believe Dallas will address the Safety position early. They do need an OT, but with the first wave of linemen gone, they should take Mays here.
Alternatives: A lineman like Rodger Saffold is always a possibility as they could wait and draft a safety like Nate Allen in the 2nd round.
28.Chargers – Sean Weatherspoon (LB)
Shawne Merriman seems to be no longer 'lights out' and was restricted in his play last season. Despite drafting Linebacker Larry English last year, the Chargers need another elite backer to improve on the play of Merriman and Ben Siler.
Alternatives: Jahvid Best (RB). After releasing L.T., the Chargers need to grab a Running Back by the 2nd round. Best is similar to Darren Sproles, so it's unlikely they'll take him. Toby Gerhart would be a better fit as a change-of-pace power back, and he will probably still be available when the Chargers pick in the 2nd at forty.
29.Jets – Jared Odrick (DE)
I did have the Jets taking Demaryius Thomas (WR) but they filled that need with the trade for Santonio Holmes. With plenty of weapons on offense, the Jets can focus on either an interior offensive lineman to learn under the ageing Alan Faneca, or more likely draft on D. I feel the pursuit for Jason Taylor will come up short, but Jared Odrick is more than capable of being productive under Rex Ryan.
Alternatives: Maurkice Pouncey (C/G); Sergio Kindle; Sean Lee (LB)
30.Vikings – Jahvid Best (RB)
With 3rd down back Chester Taylor now in Chicago, the Vikings need a change-up runner behind Adrian Peterson. The Vikings say they like their current backups Albert Young and Ian Johnson, but I wouldn't put it past Brad Childress to take the BPA in Best. The other knock back on this selection is the fact that the Vikings have a similar all-purpose guy in Percy Harvin.
Alternatives: I think Cornerback could take presidence. The Vikings offense is already a juggernaut and they could do with an upgrade over Cedric Griffin at CB. Patrick Robinson could go here.
31.Colts – Maurkice Pouncey (C/G)
With Jeff Saturday slowly diminishing, the Colts will improve their line that Bill Polian blames for the Super Bowl loss to the Saints. Pouncey would start at Guard first, filling the gap that Ryan Lilja left behind, before moving to Center when Saturday hangs up the cleats.
Alternatives: Rodger Saffold (OT); Brian Price (DT). The Colts could do with an upgrade on the defensive line.
32.Saints – Daryl Washington (LB)
After skipping on Brian Cushing last year, the Saints surely won't skip on a talented backer like Washington. Cushing went on to win Defensive Rookie of the Year at Houston, whilst the Saints took the mediocre Malcolm Jenkins, who struggled at times during the 2009 season. Washington will take the newly departed Scott Fujita's (Cleveland) starting job, and be able to do a more than capable job.
Alternatives: Nate Allen (S). Talks of a new contract are stalling with ball hawk Darren Sharper, the Saints could take Allen and be done with the veteran.
The two glaring snubs are Jimmy Clausen (QB) (above) and Demaryius Thomas (WR). I decided to not do any trades in this edition, and I feel a team will definitely trade up and take Clausen between eight and thirty. I say eight and thirty because the Bills (#9) and the Vikings (#30) are likely suitors. Thomas on the other hand could easily slide into the 2nd round. Dez Bryant appears to be the only elite WR in this year's draft, so many teams may wait until receivers becomes BPAs in the late 2nd round.
Quote of the Week
“His batteries are recharged; Donovan’s first month of the season is going to be lights out. After that, the reality of the Redskins’ wifty o-line and the fact that he really isn’t quite what he was five years ago – especially in sensing and sidestepping pass rush pressure -- will have a levelling effect. But brace yourself for a slew of premature boy-the-Eagles-sure-screwed-up stories from the national media.” – Les Bowen of Philadelphia Daily News on Donovan McNabb's new start in Washington.
Throw The Flags
Throw them at Ben Roethlisberger. I omitted any analysis on the disgraced Pittsburgh Quarterback from the Front 7 because he isn't worth the time. The charges against him have been dropped, but the Steelers organisation needs to do something about him. Sexual assault accusations can't be left alone. It's pathetic behaviour from Roethlisberger, and much like the Tiger Woods scandal, he's already lost a sponsor (Beef Jerky).
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