Picks

Been busy with work this week. Hope to have a proper column up on Tuesday.

Week 14
Colts @ Titans - Picked this on Twitter on Thursday
Browns @ Bills
Buccaneers @ Redskins
Packers @ Lions
Falcons @ Panthers
Raiders @ Jaguars
Bengals @ Steelers
Rams @ Saints
Seahawks @ 49ers
Patriots @ Bears
Dolphins @ Jets
Broncos @ Cardinals
Chiefs @ Chargers
Eagles @ Cowboys
Giants @ Vikings
Ravens @ Texans

Last week: 11-5
Overall: 126-66

PICKS!

Yes, more picks.

A look at the Cardinals issues at Quarterback to come tomorrow.

Texans @ Eagles - Picked this on Twitter on Thursday.
Bills @ Vikings
Saints @ Bengals
49ers @ Packers
Bears @ Lions
Redskins @ Giants
Browns @ Dolphins
Broncos @ Chiefs
Jaguars @ Titans
Raiders @ Chargers
Falcons @ Buccaneers
Rams @ Cardinals
Panthers @ Seahawks
Cowboys @ Colts
Steelers @ Ravens
Jets @ Patriots

Brady Makes Turkeys of Lions; Feasts on Alphonso Smith

Oh yes, I went there.

With several injuries to their front-seven, the Patriots overcame a stubborn Lions team today, 45-24. Down by seven at the half, the Patriots stormed back, scoring three unanswered touchdowns to hand the Lions their seventh straight loss on Thanksgiving.

The Lions showed their trickiness on the Patriots first drive as Ndamukong Suh picked up a sack on Tom Brady. The sack was strange as Suh lined up at linebacker, and not in his usual position at defensive tackle. The play showed his versatility and showed viewers that his freakish athleticism. He's built like a house, but can play like a pass-defending outside linebacker. The Patriots settled for a short field goal to go up 3-0.

Shaun Hill, filling in at quarterback once again for the injured Matthew Stafford, led the Lions down the field with intermediate throws and even using his own legs when needed, before launching a throw to Calvin Johnson for a touchdown. Though the pass was under thrown, it turned out to be the perfect length as Johnson lost Kyle Arrington and fought to make the catch. What helped more than anything however, was the fact the throw came on play-action, which caused safety Brandon Merriweather to bite on the run, leaving him out of position, and Johnson one-on-one with Arrington for the easy score.

With the Patriots down, the Lions momentum carried to their defense. They forced the Patriots into miscues, stuffed their runs at the line, and got plenty of pressure on Brady, as Kyle Vanden Bosch knocked him down twice in vicious manner. The former Titan abused left-tackle Matt Light twice, leaving a defenceless Brady ripe for the kill.

The Lions took advantage of the Patriots inefficiency, commanding a long, 13-play drive culminating in a fourth-and-inches conversion on a sneak by Hill, and then a one-yard touchdown run by the long-time Seahawk Maurice Morris to make it 14-3.

After a horrible drop by Brandon Tate in single coverage, the Patriots stepped up a gear, and fired back with a touchdown of their own - BenJarvus Green-Ellis with a rumbling 15-yard scamper. 'The Law Firm' steam-rolled through Lions cornerback Alphonso Smith and pushed him all the way to the end-zone to make it a one-score game.

The Lions tacked on a field goal before the end of the half to make it 17-10.

Kid Rock played a half-time show, blatantly ripping off Springsteen's 'Born to Run' with a tired and plagiarising song called 'Born Free'. The crowd couldn't have looked more bored.

After going three-and-out to start the second half, the Patriots D finally made a statement. On a first-and-ten from their own 28, Hill lofted a pass for Johnson once again, but this time rookie cornerback Devin McCourty leapt beautifully to intercept in front of him. Hill didn't exactly try to throw off the Patriots D as he stared at Johnson the entire time before throwing in his direction.

With a short field in front of him, Brady made quick work of the Lions D. Brady went play-action before throwing to Wes Welker, running a slant and out to his left, who powered through a missed tackle by Alphonso Smith for the touchdown to tie the game up.

After long passes to tight-end Brandon Pettigrew and Johnson, Hill and the Lions offense sifted through the Patriots D with relative ease. After a three-and-out at the New England one-yard line, Morris ran off left-tackle on fourth-and-one to re-take the lead for Detroit.

Challenged with third-and-two at his own 21, Brady got aggressive, unleashing a deep strike to Deion Branch for a 79-yard touchdown. Though under thrown, Branch managed to out-duke Alphonso Smith on his way to the end-zone to put the Pats ahead, 24-17. Once again, the throw was on play-action, a move that seemed to burn the Lions time and time again.

From then onwards, the Lions offense grounded to a stop. After missing a 46-yard field goal, Brady and company took over, working their way down the field comfortably. The drive ended with Brady and Branch hooking up once again for a 22-yard touchdown. It was a perfect throw by Brady, in between the cornerback and the safety as Branch went in untouched. Who was the cornerback? You guessed it, Alphonso Smith.

Another failed Lions drive, another touchdown for the Patriots. This time a screen-pass to Welker, who ran in to score from 16 yards. What was amazing however, was the fact that Welker had no one covering him. Welker's arguably the best screen receiver in the league, and no one had tabs on him? What's going on there? At least we know it wasn't Alphonso Smith's fault.

Down 38-24, and looking for a spark with just six minutes to go, Hill tried to force the ball deep, but was picked off once again by McCourty, who ran the ball down to the Detroit 12. Green-Ellis killed off the game for good as he scored his second touchdown of the day on a one-yard run. Not to be a graceful loser, Lions safety Louis Delmas picked up an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for trying to pick a fight with a Patriots blocker after the extra point.

That was all she wrote for the Lions, who could only hang with the big boys for one half of football. The Patriots move into first in the AFC East with a 9-2 record (the Jets play later tonight) while the Lions lay at the basement of NFC North at 2-9.

Player of the Game
Tom Brady
Brady completed 21 of 27 passes for 341 yards and four touchdowns, earning a perfect 158.3 quarterback rating. You can't get much better than that. Brady has played at the top of his game lately, and has shown the Patriots don't need Randy Moss. With no obvious deep-threat, Brady has utilised tight-ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez with great effect, moving the Patriots from a quick-strike offense to a unit that chips away at the opposition defense with short throws and plenty of running. If Brady can play like this in upcoming games against the Jets and Packers, two teams with great pass-defenses, he will surely be the recipient of plenty of MVP nominations in the new year.

Week 12 Picks

Patriots-Lions report coming up later today...

Week 12 Picks
Patriots @ Lions
Saints @ Cowboys
Bengals @ Jets
Jaguars @ Giants
Packers @ Falcons
Panthers @ Browns
Steelers @ Bills
Titans @ Texans
Vikings @ Redskins
Chiefs @ Seahawks
Dolphins @ Raiders
Eagles @ Bears
Rams @ Broncos
Buccaneers @ Ravens
Chargers @ Colts
49ers @ Cardinals

Last week: 11-5
Overall: 104-56

Just the Picks Again...

Week 11 Picks
Bears @ Dolphins (Picked this on Twitter on Thursday)
Bills @ Bengals
Cardinals @ Chiefs
Packers @ Vikings
Redskins @ Titans
Browns @ Jaguars
Texans @ Jets
Ravens @ Panthers
Lions @ Cowboys
Raiders @ Steelers
Falcons @ Rams
Buccaneers @ 49ers
Seahawks @ Saints
Colts @ Patriots
Giants @ Eagles
Broncos @ Chargers

New Look France Outshine Inconsistent England

A “sell-out” crowd saw France completely outplay England and hand them their first defeat at Wembley Stadium under Fabio Capello. The Frenchmen ran out 2-1 winners in a largely dull affair between two teams looking to forget their World Cup miseries.

England rung the changes, handing débuts to the likes of Andy Carroll (Newcastle United), Jordan Henderson (Sunderland) and Jay Bothroyd (Cardiff City), no doubt to inject some fresh blood into the team. Capello also selected Micah Richards, despite the fact he'd spent the last three Manchester City games on the bench.

With no clear choice at right-back, Fabio Capello slot Phil Jagielka there. It was a baffling decision, considering Jagielka has rarely played the position in his career, as he's spent most of his time at centre-half and centre-midfield. His lack of experience was exposed early on as France attacked down the left repeatedly with Florent Malouda. It didn't help that right-winger Theo Walcott kept drifting inside either, as Jagielka would often have to come forward and then be left for dead by Malouda on counter attacks. Capello had better hope Glen Johnson can keep healthy, because the only cover for him seems to be Richards.

France started the better team, and for them, the only way was up. Malouda and Yoann Gourcuff tested England goalkeeper Ben Foster early, and on 16 minutes they broke the deadlock through Karim Benzema. The Real Madrid forward played a pair of neat one-twos with Malouda around the proverbial headless chicken, Jagielka, before Benzema took the ball forward and struck from ten yards out past Foster's right. Ferdinand attempted to tackle him before he shot, but as is the case with Ferdinand these days, he wasn't there in time.

The goal only helped to knock England down a notch. Their nervy start was highlighted by stray passes and a general lack of communication which provided hardly anything going forward. It took until the 28th minute for England to produce something that resembled a positive move. Joleon Lescott lofted a ball over the middle to Andy Carroll, who glanced it down to James Milner, who in turn shot wide. The idea was there, but the practice was flawed by the disappointing finish.

The French, continually attacking down the left, played some neat passes between themselves throughout the first half and they looked by far the more composed and comfortable of the two teams. Every attack was struck through fluid passing and great link-up play from defence to midfield to attack.

England finally had another attempt, this time from a Keiran Gibbs free kick. The target-man Carroll heading it down to Gerrard who then sliced over from inside the area. A wasted opportunity that Gerrard would likely blame on the slippery surface.

The partisan crowd expressed their dissatisfaction, performing perhaps the world's first ironic Mexican wave before showering the team with boos as the half was brought to a close.

England started the second half by mixing things up. Micah Richards replaced Rio Ferdinand, moving Jagielka to centre-half, and Walcott and Gareth Barry made way for Ashley Young and Adam Johnson. The moves failed to have any immediate impact, and the French continued to attack.

It was France who struck next, of course, doubling their lead through Mathieu Valbuena. Arsenal defender Bacary Sagna charged down the right wing before crossing into the middle where Nasri completely missed the ball, but right next to him was Valbuena, who slotted home past the on-looking Foster.

Now 2-0 down, England seemed to actually pick up the pace. Gibbs became more involved going forward, showing promise and ease against Sagna. Once again, England's next chance would come through Gerrard, who hid at the back post on a Johnson free-kick. French players left the ball, thinking it would go straight out of play, but Gerrard's header looped up and fell onto the bar, much to their surprise.

Wasted chances highlighted England's second half. Be it a shot or soft header straight at goalkeeper Hugo Lloris, or a strong effort gone wide or over, it just wasn't their day. Nasri cracked the post after making Stephen Warnock look silly, and in the build-up Gerrard injured himself trying to tackle Gourcuff.

Peter Crouch replaced Gerrard, and he scored with his first touch, jostling with Diarra on a corner before side-footing a volley at the back post into the goal. It was Crouch's 22nd goal in 42 international games, and while many champion his great England form, you can't help but think, when has he ever scored a goal that meant anything? He has an impressive record for England, but the majority of his goals have come against international minnows like Jamaica, or in friendlies like this one.

With barely five minutes to go, it was a matter of too little, too late as débutante Jay Bothroyd wasted his only chance – a soft header straight at Lloris. Milner skied over the bar, before England's last chance at producing anything was killed by Ben Foster, whose long ball went sailing out of play for a throw-in. The punt forward summed up England's play – a mix of sloppy passing and wasted opportunities and a general lack of consistency. Danish Referee Claus Bo Larsen blew the full time whistle as the Wembley crowd voiced their disapproval once again.

Speaking after the match to ITV, Rio Ferdinand told Gabriel Clarke: “We didn't really pass the ball. We didn't get going until the last 20 minutes. We didn't play to our strengths.” I found the last comment interesting, as I thought France simply denied England the chance to play to their strengths. Clarke then added a typical inane ITV question: “Is there room for improvement?” Ferdinand's reply was “definitely.” Well of course there is room for improvement, if it was a draw there would be room for improvement, and I'm sure Ferdinand would have said the same had it been a narrow victory.

Fabio Capello praised his younger players, specifically singling out Andy Carroll. “He's a fighter, but he has quality. He has an England future for sure, and he's one of the most interesting young players in Europe.” Capello described how his younger players dealt with playing at International level, highlighting the faster pace of the senior game. “The speed is difficult, and when you play with a lot of young players, there's a lot of pressure too.”

Florent Malouda kept his side grounded after the victory, he said: “It's a great result, and it's great to turn the page and look forward. You have to be positive. [The win] was nice, but it doesn't mean anything until you win the big game.”

Man of the Match
Florent Malouda
It has to be Malouda. An ever-present in France's attacks, every positive action seemed to move through him. His link-up play with Nasri and Benzema was pivotal to their success and his hand in the first goal showed his creativity and vision to play Benzema in.

Final Thoughts
England have a long way to go. Of course, this was just a friendly, and it featured new players getting their first shot at senior level. The likes of Wayne Rooney, Ashley Cole, Frank Lampard, Joe Hart and Glen Johnson were missing, and it looks like their presence was sorely missed.

This shouldn't be the last time we see Andy Carroll in an England shirt. He played as the lone-striker and the Newcastle forward performed well in the difficult role, winning every ball that came to him, and forcing Lloris into a few saves. Jordan Henderson however did not impress me. He was invisible as Nasri, Gourcuff and Malouda passed circles around him and Barry. Jay Bothroyd didn't provide the spark that I thought he might, either.

Despite conceding, England looked a lot better defensively in the second half. It's obvious that Jagielka's true position is at centre-half, and Gibbs became a lot more active with Ashley Young in front of him. Walcott showed me nothing, but his replacement Adam Johnson played very well, as he always seems to do in an England shirt. If I had to give Johnson some advice, it would be to get out of Manchester. A growing talent like Johnson needs to be getting first team action, something he isn't getting at Eastlands. The boy could do wonders at Arsenal.

Teams
England: Foster, Jagielka, Ferdinand (Richards 45), Lescott, Gibbs (Warnock 72), Henderson, Barry (Young 45), Walcott (Johnson 45), Gerrard (Crouch 85), Milner, Carroll (Bothroyd 72).
Unused subs: Green, Cahill, Smalling.

France: Lloris, Sagna (Reveillere 87), Rami, Mexes (Sakho 45), Abidal, M'Vila, Valbuena (Diarra 67), Nasri, Gourcuff (Hoarau 85), Malouda (Payet 77), Benzema (Remy 67).
Unused subs: Mandanda, Carrasso, Clichy, Cabaye, Gameiro,

Attendance
85,495

The Phillips Firing and a Case of Chad for Chad

Once again, I have been without a broadband connection. So it's just a few quick points and the picks.


- Wherever he is, I'm sure Wade Phillips is a happy man right now. The likeable Dallas coach was fired after the 45-7 drubbing by the Packers. Phillips managed to look more miserable as the weeks went on, which is saying something. At least he can relax with his hefty severance package now.

- Jason Garrett had to be Phillips' replacement. He had to. Jerry Jones wouldn't have been able to justify overlooking Garrett, who prior to being named Head Coach, was the highest paid coordinator in NFL history. With the Cowboys season pretty much over, I expect Garrett to whip the players into shape and potentially grind two or three wins out. One of those wins won't come this week though. The Giants are too good, and Jon Kitna might want to do his damnedest to get out of the way of that pass-rush after seeing what it's done to Romo and Cutler et al.

- The Dolphins were right to bench Chad Henne for Chad Pennington. If Miami is going to win the AFC East, or at least make the playoffs, they need to improve their red zone offense considerably. Pennington's experience and excellent accuracy (even when he played for the Jets in the wind tunnel -- the Meadowlands) should mean more touchdowns, and less field goals.

- The Peyton Hillis hype is becoming a bit silly. Yes, he shredded the Patriots, but he can't be expected of to perform like that every week. The Patriots D isn't the standard-bearer of the NFL for stopping the run, but the Jets are having a good swing at it (fourth in rushing defense).

Week 10 Picks
Ravens @ Falcons (picked this on Twitter on Thursday)
Titans @ Dolphins
Bengals @ Colts
Vikings @ Bears
Lions @ Bills
Panthers @ Buccaneers
Texans @ Jaguars
Jets @ Browns
Chiefs @ Broncos
Cowboys @ Giants
Seahawks @ Cardinals
Rams @ 49ers
Patriots @ Steelers
Eagles @ Redskins

Last week: 11-2
Overall: 85-45

Internet Issues

Had some major downtime this week, so just the picks will have to suffice.

Week 9 Picks
Jets @ Lions
Dolphins @ Ravens
Patriots @ Browns
Chargers @ Texans
Bears @ Bills
Cardinals @ Vikings
Buccaneers @ Falcons
Saints @ Panthers
Giants @ Seahawks
Colts @ Eagles
Chiefs @ Raiders
Cowboys @ Packers
Steelers @ Bengals

Last week: 6-7
Overall: 74-43

Oh, and Randy Moss is an idiot, Brad Childress is an idiot, Matt Cassel was clutch last Sunday, and James Harrison is still an idiot.

Week 6 and 7 in the NFL

Quick Week 6 Thoughts

- The Romo injury is big for Dallas. But, their season was already over. Cowboys fans can look forward to Jon Kitna (I doubt they'll be as excited as Ron Jaworski though), and probably a top ten pick in next year's draft.

- Packers Left Tackle Chad Clifton really impressed me this week. He went one-on-one with Jared Allen on every snap and never looked to be in trouble. A welcome sigh of relief for Packers Quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who was sacked seven-and-a-half times by Allen last season.

- Kenny Britt abused Ellis Hobbs last Sunday. Despite being benched for the first quarter due to a scuffle in a nightclub last week, Britt had a career day, catching seven balls for 225 yards and three touchdowns. Though pundits are saying Britt is 'an elite receiver' now, I have to disagree. He beat up the unreliable Hobbs and a rookie Safety in Nate Allen. That's not very impressive. Sure, the numbers speak for themselves, but the opponent has to be evaluated. If he's elite, he should be going against the top cornerbacks and doing well against them.

- Brad Childress probably shouldn't have called out Brett Favre about his play. Yes, he played badly, but Favre has the keys to the Vikings bandwagon. If he doesn't play Sunday, the Vikes are left with Tarvaris Jackson, and that's never good.

Week 7
On to week seven, looking in-depth at the top four games.

Minnesota Vikings @ New England Patriots
Randy Moss returns to New England; slew of writers predict career day for him. It would be sod's law for Moss to go into “beast mode” against his former team, but I just can't see it. I don't think he'll do poorly, of course not, not against THAT secondary, but a career day? C'mon man. Moss's production lies solely on Brett Favre being healthy, because who knows how T-Jax will play for the first time in seemingly years and years. I think it'll be close, but I'm with the Patriots. Coach Belichick is starting to turn the young defense and it's hard to pick against Brady, who has won his last twenty-three games at Foxboro. One thing to note however, Favre's last appearance against the Patriots in 2008 – 26 for 33, 258 yards, 2 touchdowns, with a 119.4 Passer Rating.
Prediction: Vikings 28 Patriots 31

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints
This could be completely one-sided if the Saints don't begin to pick up their play of 2009. What has happened? Are Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush that pivotal to the offense? Drew Brees threw three interceptions last week (two for touchdowns) against the lowly Browns. How many will he throw Troy Polamalu's way? The good news for the Saints is that Steelers DE Aaron Smith is out, and he's a massive piece to their defensive line. In the last three seasons, Ben Roethlisberger is 2-0 in dome games, but this is neither Detroit nor St. Louis. Brees hasn't faced Ben since 2006, when the Steelers came out 38-31 winners, but Brees has come a long way since then. He's cemented his place amongst the top tier of Quarterbacks, but to beat the Steelers he's going to have to play like one, and not like he has been recently (throwing ten interceptions this season already after he had eleven all last year).
Prediction: Steelers 27 Saints 28

Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets
It's hard to know what to expect in this game. The Packers are decimated by injury, but are still getting it done. Meanwhile, the Jets are coming off the bye, meaning coach Rex Ryan will have schemed like a mad-man to stop Aaron Rodgers. The Packers run-defense worries me, and with LT playing the way he is, he could be the deciding factor in this game. Sanchez's turnover ratio is a lot better this season, he's thrown only two interceptions in 177 pass attempts. I think the Jets force enough turnovers to win this game, as long as Sanchez doesn't start throwing in Charles Woodson's direction.
Prediction: Packers 27 Jets 30

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
I've seen writers split on this game, and it's easy to see why. The Texans ran all over the Colts in week one (257 yards rushing), yet Peyton Manning can and has, thrown all over Houston's thirty-second ranked defense (463 yards). I think it all comes down to how the Texans get to Manning. The defensive line is their strong point, and Manning won't be able to get those quick throws off to the injured Dallas Clark. Clark is a big loss, but Manning could probably beat the Texans with high-school receivers. Some unlikely names are going to come up big on Monday night, the likes of Jacob Tamme, Blair White and Brody Eldridge to name a few. This shouldn't be too competitive.
Prediction: Texans 27 Colts 37

Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers - @ Wembley Stadium
Once again, the UK plays host to probably the worst game possible. Besides, there shouldn't even be any games in the UK. It's a stupid idea that only leads to British pundits clamouring for a British franchise. Simply put, it's never going to happen.
Prediction: Broncos 23 49ers 14

Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals better hope CB Jonathan Joseph is back. Matt Ryan and Roddy White killed their secondary last week, and now Adam Jones is on IR too. This could be a big day for Chad Henne.
Prediction: Dolphins 23 Bengals 20

Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions
Matt Stafford is back in at Quarterback after his lengthy injury. I think this'll be an ugly game. It's two teams that are struggling offensively and succumb to turnovers often, and it will likely be decided because of turnovers. DeAngelo Hall will not have four interceptions this week.
Prediction: Redskins 17 Lions 14

Carolina Panthers @ St. Louis Rams
After the Rams fizzled out last week at the Bucs, it's hard to pick against a Panthers team that may be starting to turn it around after giving Matt Moore a deserved second chance.
Prediction: Panthers 23 Rams 20

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
The surprisingly dominant Chiefs won't slip up at home to the Bills, even though Buffalo forced the mighty Ravens into overtime. Jones and Charles will lead the Chiefs on the ground, and Cassel will do just enough through the air. I'm becoming a fan of Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick though, who seems to play every snap like it's fourth down.
Prediction: Bills 13 Chiefs 30

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Dallas Cowboys
Jon Kitna replaces the injured Tony Romo. No one notices because it's Jacksonville.
Prediction: Jaguars 13 Cowboys 27

Tennessee Titans @ San Diego Chargers
A tough game to pick. The Titans are rolling at the moment, but I think the Chargers are due a win. If Marc Mariani has any impact on special teams for the Titans however, Tennessee wins easily. Antonio Gates should have a big day (74 yards and a touchdown in his last appearance against the Titans).
Prediction: Titans 17 Chargers 28

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals
Ugh. This will be ugly. I have no idea. A tie is just as likely.
Prediction: Buccaneers 13 Cardinals 14

Seattle Seahawks @ Oakland Raiders
Despite the Raiders dropping fifty-nine on Denver last week, everyone knows they're not as good as the scoreboard read. This has field goal battle written all over it.
Prediction: Seahawks 18 Raiders 13

Last week: 7-7
Overall: 68-36

Rookie Watch

Top 15 Most Impressive Rookies So Far

1. Sam Bradford (QB) – St. Louis Rams – Draft Position: #1
The Rams won one game last season. They have three wins from six games already this season, and it's got a lot to do with Bradford. He's not tearing through opposing defenses, but he's getting the job done. With progression throughout the year he should be able to lead the Rams to at least two or three more wins. One man who has to be delighted to have Bradford is Running Back Steven Jackson, who's actually seeing less guys in the box (last year when asked if he kept seeing eight guys in the box, he said, "eight? I see nine.") and is being given the space to have big games on the ground. Whilst Bradford's numbers aren't spectacular, two things have to be taken into perspective. One, he is a rookie, and two, he's throwing to arguably the worst receiving corps in the league due to injuries to Mark Clayton and Donnie Avery. Rookie Danario Alexander is likely to be Bradford's number one target for the remainder of the season.

2. Ndamukong Suh (DT) – Detroit Lions – Draft Position: #2
Suh currently leads the league in sacks by Defensive Tackles with four and a half. Though the Lions rank 28th in rush defense, they rank 19th in pass defense after being dead last in 2009. This is due to the arrivals of Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch. Suh is blowing up interior Offensive Lines with twenty one combined tackles, four and a half sacks, and even an interception. Suh will be salivating for upcoming games against Buffalo and Chicago with their pitiful offensive lines.

3. Nate Allen (FS) – Philadelphia Eagles – Draft Position: #37
Although he won the starting job by default due to injury to free agent acquisition Marlin Jackson, Allen is proving he belongs in the starting lineup. Allen leads all rookies with three interceptions and all Free Safetys with nine passes defended. The Eagles pass defense has improved from 17th to 9th this season, all the while holding opposing Quarterbacks to an NFL worst 47.3 rating (per ESPN's stats and info blog), not bad for a secondary that has two other rookies getting plenty of playing time in Kurt Coleman and Trevard Lindley. I'm not saying Allen is the second coming of Brian Dawkins, but no Eagles rookie has had three picks since him in 1996.

4. Trent Williams (LT) – Washington Redskins – Draft Position: #4
Williams is playing up to his draft position so far in Washington. In his last game against the Colts and more importantly, Dwight Freeney, he kept Donovan McNabb upright with a clean uniform from start to finish. This isn't a knock on Freeney, who I still regard to be a top five pass-rusher, but a massive praise for Williams. Up next for Williams? The Bears' Julius Peppers.

5. Perrish Cox (CB) – Denver Broncos – Draft Position: #137
He might be playing alongside veterans Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins, but Cox is proving his worth. He only has one interception, but his ten passes defended at this stage of the season is remarkable for any player. He's set to be targeted a lot due to the presence of the aforementioned veterans, but he's shown that he can manage the workload. The Broncos pass defense is worse this season, but this is most likely due to the injuries to the Defensive Line (Elvis Dumervil), the secondary (Brian Dawkins), and of course the changing of Defensive Co-ordinator (from Mike Nolan to Don Martindale).

6. Alterraun Verner (CB) – Tennessee Titans – Draft Position: #104
Verner is playing great, simply put. He has nine passes defended and two interceptions, and is playing like a veteran and nothing like a twenty-one year old coming out of UCLA. It will be interesting to see how Peyton Manning attacks him this season, what with the rest of the Titans defense playing well too.

7.Chris Ivory (RB) – New Orleans Saints – Draft Position: Undrafted
With Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush out, the Saints running game has been left to Chris Ivory -- Tiffin University's finest, Ladell Betts and Julius Jones. Ivory has taken Thomas' role of the primary first and second down runner, and he has shined. Averaging 6.3 yards a carry, it will be hard for Saints coach Sean Payton to take him out of the lineup. When healthy, I see Ivory sharing carries with Thomas, and Bush reprising his third down role. Of course the flip side of the coin is that any back should produce good numbers when they have Drew Brees to support them, but Ivory has shown flashes of dominance.

8. Earl Thomas (FS) – Seattle Seahawks – Draft Position: #14
While the Seahawks pass defense is still struggling, giving up 290 yards per game, Thomas has been instrumental in being a right-place-right-time guy for Seattle. He has three interceptions and six passes defended, and should have a good next couple of weeks against Arizona's Max Hall and whoever Oakland throw under center. His biggest game so far was the Hawks 27-20 win over the Chargers, where he picked off Philip Rivers twice.

9. Jahvid Best (RB) – Detroit Lions – Draft Position: #30
Best has started okay in the run game, but has excelled in the passing game. His future looks to be as a Reggie Bush put-him-anywhere kind of player so far. He's averaging 3.2 yards per carry, which needs to be improved if he's going to keep getting a high amount of carries, but he has 31 receptions for 285 yards already this season. If he keeps it up, he's looking at catching 82 balls for 760 yards. I see him being more like Ray Rice than Bush however, but he'll have to bulk up from 199lbs to be able to play like Rice.

10. Mike Williams (WR) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Draft Position: #101
The fourth rounder out of Syracuse opened the season as the team's number one receiver, and he's done about as good as a rookie receiver can in the circumstances. He leads all rookie Wide Receivers in receptions (23), yards (283) and touchdowns (3). The only knock against him is he's fumbled twice.

11. Tony Moeaki (TE) – Kansas City Chiefs – Draft Position: #93
Moeaki's job is to replace Tony Gonzalez essentially, but no one is expecting him to play like him. So far, he's doing enough to hold down the starting job. In a running offense, he's managed eighteen receptions, 194 yards and 2 touchdowns, and in the process he's starting to become Matt Cassel's safety blanket.

12. Aaron Hernandez (TE) – New England Patriots – Draft Position: #113
He's outplaying fellow rookie Tight End Rob Gronkowski, who was drafted 71 places ahead of him, and has become the down field threat for the Patriots even before they traded away Randy Moss. He leads all rookies in receiving yards with 301, and is averaging 13.7 yards per catch (4th amongst all Tight Ends, minimum 15 receptions).

13. T.J. Ward (SS) – Cleveland Browns – Draft Position: #38
Despite playing on a bad defense, Ward has racked up 54 tackles, tied for eight in the NFL.

14. Russell Okung (OT) – Seattle Seahawks – Draft Position: #6
Okung has only started two games, but he's looked impressive so far. He shut down Julius Peppers this past Sunday, which is enough to make this list for sure.

15. Dexter McCluster (RB/WR/KR) – Kansas City Chiefs – Draft Position: #36
McCluster burst onto the scene in the Chiefs opening game against the Chargers, taking a punt 94 yards to the house. Since then, he's largely been used on third-down, catching 10 balls for 106 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Honourable Mention
Jermaine Gresham (TE) – Cincinnati Bengals – Draft Position: #21
The Bengals offense has struggled at times despite Carson Palmer having Cedric Benson, Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens at his disposal. Meanwhile, Gresham has excelled in the intermediate passing game. While Ochocinco and Owens are stretching the field, Palmer is getting short throws off to Gresham (7.2 yards per catch), making him an important piece to their offense.

On the Cusp: Danario Alexander, Eric Berry, Dez Bryant, Joe Haden, Marc Mariani, Colt McCoy, Koa Misi.

Five First Rounders Who Need to Improve

1. Kareem Jackson (CB) – Houston Texans
He may have 6 passes defended and an interception. But, c'mon man. The Texans are on pace for surely a record setting turgid pass defense. They're giving up 306 yards to opposing Quarterbacks, and twenty seven points per game. Jackson might be the only bright spark in their secondary, but he needs to shine brighter to have any sort of impact this season.

2. Ryan Mathews (RB) – San Diego Chargers
He leads all rookies with 282 yards, but he should have so much more. If he can stay healthy, he should pass the 1,000 yard mark.

3. Gerald McCoy (DT) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs are 31st in run defense. McCoy needs to change that, starting with stopping the Rams' Steven Jackson this Sunday.

4. Devin McCourty (CB) – New England Patriots
The Patriots 29th ranked pass defense and their young secondary need to start producing. They began their progress this past Sunday, holding the Ravens to twenty points, and a banged up Chargers team should boost their spirits this week.

5. Kyle Wilson (CB) – New York Jets
Wilson's playing with All-Pro Darrelle Revis, and a good comeback player in Antonio Cromartie, so he's been targeted (and abused) regularly this season. Wilson needs to start playing a helluva lot better soon, especially if Revis' hammy continues to hinder his play.

Rookie Who Likely Has Chronic Depression
C.J. Spiller (RB) - Buffalo Bills
It's gonna be a tough few years for Spiller most likely. Playing for Buffalo isn't easy, especially when the rest of the AFC East is in a dogfight for the number one spot. At least he signed a big contract though.

Updated Awards Predictions
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Sam Bradford (QB) – St. Louis Rams
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Ndamukong Suh (DT) – Detroit Lions

Week 7 Picks
Browns @ Saints
Jaguars @ Chiefs
Redskins @ Bears
Steelers @ Dolphins
Bengals @ Falcons
Rams @ Buccaneers
Bills @ Ravens
49ers @ Panthers
Eagles @ Titans
Cardinals @ Seahawks
Raiders @ Broncos
Patriots @ Chargers
Vikings @ Packers
Giants @ Cowboys

Last week: 11-3
Overall: 61-29

And finally...

Two Running Back Committees

In the NFL, teams operate many different schemes at Running Back. Some have a franchise runner, or a runner who is head and shoulders above every other Back on the roster, and he gets the vast majority of carries (see: Cedric Benson; Rashard Mendenhall). That franchise runner then has other Running Backs behind him that work in set scenarios, like a power runner on third and short, or a pass-catching back on third and long. This is the basis for many teams, especially New England and New Orleans. When healthy, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Pierre Thomas carry the load for their respective team, and they are relieved on third down by either their power runners (Fred Taylor; Julius Jones – who just signed for New Orleans this week) or their pass-catching backs (Kevin Faulk; Reggie Bush). This is their system, and it clearly works for them based on their records the past few seasons.

Other teams however, are blessed with having two Running Backs that seem to be fighting for the number one job on a week-to-week basis. That's not always the case, but my point is that some teams have two Running Backs that can seemingly get the job done. If one goes down due to injury, the other can come in and pick up from where he left off – with similar stat lines. It's arguable how many teams do operate this scheme, but in my opinion, I have identified eleven teams that could start any one of two Backs. As you're about to see, it's not always a blessing to have two equally talented guys in the backfield.

Arizona Cardinals – Beanie Wells & Tim Hightower
This is what I mean. They share carries more often and not, and the results are similarly bad. Hampered by having a no-good veteran (Anderson) and now a free-agent rookie (Hall) at Quarterback, the two Backs have combined for just 368 yards in five games. That's 73 yards per game, and they're averaging 4.3ypc (yards-per-carry) thanks to Hightower's 80-yard touchdown carry against Atlanta. Without that run, the two are averaging a horrible 3.42ypc.

Baltimore Ravens – Ray Rice & Willis McGahee
Sure, everyone knows Rice is the better back who can do it all, but McGahee is key to Baltimore offense. While Rice gets most of the carries, McGahee can be depended on if needed. The only problem with the tandem is that coach John Harbaugh seems to think McGahee is a good short-yardage runner, especially inside the five yard line, when he's not. He had a fluky season last year with red zone carries and has already proved that this season. At the moment though, the tandem work well in relief for Quarterback Joe Flacco, and should carry Baltimore to an AFC North crown.

Carolina Panthers – DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart
In my opinion, this is the best two Running Back committee in the entire league. But in the win-loss column, Carolina is 0-5. That can't be held responsible at their feet though. Both guys are seeing at least eight guys in the box when they get the ball because rookie Quarterback Jimmy Clausen seemingly can't do anything. He's young, he'll learn (hopefully, for Panthers fans), so it'll take time for the offense to come alive again. In the draft, if the Panthers can add some more depth to their offensive line and maybe a Tight End, their luck should change. Williams and Stewart are better than 0-5. Carolina shot down trade rumours for Williams this week, and it's the best thing they can do right now.

Dallas Cowboys – Marion Barber & Felix Jones
It's sad to see that through four games, Felix Jones has only thirty seven carries (averaging 5.3ypc). This is a guy that averaged 5.9ypc last season. Barber has only five more carries, averaging 3.4ypc. Is it not clear to the coaching staff that Jones should be starting AND seeing more of the ball? Tony Romo has attempted 174 passes this season. That's 137 more attempts than Jones. Everybody's coming up with ideas about why the Cowboys are 1-3. They say they've got the wrong personnel, or a bad defense, but it's not. It's the play-calling. People are idiotic if they think Jerry Jones is going to fire Wade Phillips in favour of offensive coordinator Jason Garrett. If Garrett can't see that Felix Jones isn't getting enough touches, he deserves to be fired more than anyone.

Indianapolis Colts – Joseph Addai & Donald Brown
All the Colts need are Running Backs that can make things that little bit easier for Peyton Manning. If the running game was abandoned in Indy, they would still be fine, after all Manning is arguably the best of the best right now. Thankfully, Addai and Brown play a prominent role in the passing game too, much to Manning's delight. In the Colts system, the two are interchangeable. Last season, the two combined for 62 receptions. That might only be less than 10% of Manning's passes, but with the number of active and capable receivers at his disposal, it shows how many little times he's had to check down into throwing to his Back. With the two Backs being still relatively young, Manning and the Colts should be fine for the next three seasons at least.

Kansas City Chiefs – Jamaal Charles & Thomas Jones
Through four games, the Chiefs are third in the NFL in rushing. They would probably be higher if Charles had more carries (50 to Jones's 60) as he has a staggering 6.5ypc compared to Jones's 3.9. Charles and Jones are akin to the Titans' Smash and Dash of 2008 (Chris Johnson and LenDale White). Jones is the power runner, Charles is the guy who gets into space, escapes blockers, and scored big, long touchdowns. The only hindrance to the Chiefs offense is Quarterback Matt Cassel, who is only completing 54% of his throws. If the Chiefs get improved play from him, Charles and Jones can lead this team to big things. It's not out of the question that they make the playoffs this season, but I would say next year is a must for the young franchise.

Miami Dolphins – Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams
From what I've seen of the Dolphins, these two are the exact same back. It's hard to distinguish many differences between them. They have similar running styles, except Williams seems to hit tacklers with a lot more force than Brown. I think what stops the Dolphins being more successful in the run game is their persistence to stick with the option (Wildcat) formation. When defenses see the wildcat, they almost always stuff the A gap (the middle) or do a full-house blitz. What carried the formation's success was the threat that Brown would throw the ball or hand it back to Chad Henne for a throw. In ordinary situations however, the Dolphins have a solid running attack with Brown and Williams, and they will likely get more of the ball against some good pass-defenses in the upcoming month (vs. Pittsburgh; at Cincinnati).

New York Giants – Ahmad Bradshaw & Brandon Jacobs
After Jacobs' benching, Bradshaw has thrived, becoming the fourth leading rusher in the league. If Bradshaw were to go down however, I don't think Jacobs would perform as well as he did in 2008 (the year before he was paid the big bucks). Jacobs will likely be on another team next season, so this tandem doesn't have long together. In the meantime, the Giants are steady with the two backs, but are seemingly going further towards the passing game becoming the primary attack. You can't argue against that either with the way Hakeem Nicks has started (33 receptions, 409 yards, 6 touchdowns).

New York Jets – LaDainian Tomlinson & Shonn Greene
The NFL's best rushing team so far this season, and it's mainly thanks to Tomlinson, and not Greene. Many (including myself) saw Tomlinson as the reliever, the guy who comes in on passing downs and then the fourth quarter to kill off the game, but Tomlinson has obviously worked like mad during the off-season to get to where he is now. He's at 5.7ypc with 435 yards through five games. That's unimaginable for a guy who San Diego unceremoniously dumped last season. Greene is the apparent heir to Tomlinson now, like he was last year to Thomas Jones, and the Jets should feel comfortable that he can carry that mantle based on his production this season (4.5ypc so far). Going against the Broncos and their 25th ranked rushing defense, Tomlinson and Greene should combine for a big day this Sunday.

Philadelphia Eagles – LeSean McCoy & Jerome Harrison
This week the Eagles traded Mike Bell to Cleveland for Jerome Harrison. I don't understand the Browns thinking at all. What has Harrison done to coach Eric Mangini, seriously? Harrison ran for 561 yards in the Browns final three games last season. That's 187ypg. That's insane! Cleveland have gone with Peyton Hillis though. Sure, he's started well, but how can Harrison NOT start the season as the number one back? The Eagles got rid of the unimpressive Bell, who struggled to do anything in the their system, and have replaced him with an obviously very capable back in Harrison. That now gives the Eagles two similar guys in the backfield. Harrison will likely get more carries in power running situations, but he's also a capable receiver. McCoy will still get more snaps, and he has seemingly improved by leaps and bounds this season, but this could be an interesting competition come the end of the season. Either way, it's a win-win situation for the Eagles, who now have four different Quarterback and Running Back match-ups thanks to the injury flip-flops of Kolb and Vick. Most Eagles fans should feel confident of a win with most of the match ups.

Seattle Seahawks – Marshawn Lynch & Justin Forsett
Another tandem yet to play with each other, at least in the pros, Lynch and Forsett actually formed the backfield of the California Golden Bears in college in 2005. Great friends off the field, hopefully their friendship will translate to great production for the Seahawks offense. Lord knows they need something to bolster their 29th ranked rushing attack. However, with Hasselbeck throwing more interceptions than touchdowns, it might be difficult for the pair to get anything going unless Charlie Whitehurst starts, and starts well.

Week 6 Picks
Falcons @ Eagles
Chiefs @ Texans
Saints @ Buccaneers
Dolphins @ Packers
Chargers @ Rams
Ravens @ Patriots
Lions @ Giants
Browns @ Steelers
Seahawks @ Bears
Jets @ Broncos
Raiders @ 49ers
Cowboys @ Vikings
Colts @ Redskins
Titans @ Jaguars

Last week: 9-5
Overall: 50-26

Moss, Kolb and the Bears OL

The Moss Trade
The Patriots made another big move this week, trading Randy Moss to the team that drafted him, the Minnesota Vikings. It was surprising to some, but inevitable to others. Teams don't normally trade a future Hall of Fame receiver like Moss four weeks into the season, but the Patriots aren't a normal team. You can look back to last year, when they traded all-pro Defensive Lineman Richard Seymour to the Raiders just six days before the start of the season. They saw Seymour as past his peak, and decided to get good trade value while they still could. With Moss, it's a little different. Moss was a distraction in the locker room, he used press conferences as sympathy pleas for a new contract. The Patriots have been anticipating a trade though, you can see by their play. The Patriots have been playing a lot more snaps with two Tight End formations with the emerging Aaron Hernandez and fellow rookie Rob Gronkowski. For Moss to complain though, it's ridiculous. Now in Minnesota, he has the exact same contract, the only difference being the Vikings promise not to label him with the franchise tag at the end of the season. That allows the ever so faithful Moss to bolt at the end of the year (when Favre likely retires) to the highest bidder, much like when he left the Vikings the first time around in 2004, but this time, they won't get anything in return (The Raiders gave up a first round draft pick and Linebacker Napoleon Harris for his services).

Looking at the likeliest highest bidders for Moss, is there any doubt he doesn't sign with the Redskins? Owner Dan Snyder has splashed the cash many times in the past, and he won't hesitate to sign a true elite player like Moss. The Redskins need receivers, and McNabb almost managed to get Moss to join him in Philadelphia in 2009, so they will probably gel easily (Moss and Owens comparisons a plenty).

What do the Patriots do now? Well, they need a receiver, a veteran to line up outside. They can't expect the inexperienced Brandon Tate to fill in for Moss right away, so a pick-up of someone Brady knows and trusts like Deion Branch or Reche Caldwell would certainly help. I don't think the trade really affects Welker. Welker's play is normally a six yard gain per reception. He's a player that just chips and chips away at the defence, and rarely ever stretches the field. Tight End Aaron Hernandez will likely be the guy that stretches the field, which he's already started to do (three receptions over twenty yards, two over forty yards).


Kevin Kolb's Second Half Play vs. Redskins
I decided to take a look at what Kolb did in the second half against the Redskins this past week due to the fact most people buried his play. Down 17-6, the Eagles were primed to throw a lot, and Kolb struggled to an extent. It's not all his fault though. The offensive line play has been rather woeful for the Eagles this season, so the fault is shared by a lot of different players. Also, it can be hard for a Quarterback to adjust to a game he hasn't started.

- Kolb was nearly intercepted on three plays, two were bad throws, the other he was forced to scramble due to bad blocking.
- The Redskins defensive line didn't blitz once, but still managed to sack Kolb once. Bad blocking forced him out of the pocket, he tried to scramble, but was immediately tackled by Andre Carter.
- A lot of Kolb's throws were shovel passes, screens and short dump offs to Running Backs due to the fact the Redskins were only rushing four players at most on every play. Receivers like Jackson, Maclin and Avant were tied up, leaving Kolb to throw under for small to medium gains all day long.
- Left Tackle Jason Peters was ABUSED by Brian Orakpo. Orakpo forced Peters into holding him on a Kolb thirty-two yard scramble that was brought back.
- Kolb missed a lot of wide-open guys, notably frustrating to Maclin, who showed his colours on the sidelines after a replay showed he was wide open, while Kolb threw short of a first down.
- The touchdown was Kolb's only real successful throw of the day. He went to his safety blanket, Tight End Brent Celek, and threw a tight spiral over Linebacker London Fletcher into Celek's waiting hands, who was also being covered by Rocky McIntosh.
- With thirty seconds to play, the most perplexing and poignant play of the day occurred. The Eagles were third-and-one at their own thirty-five, and looking at the play-by-play (K.Kolb pass short right to 87-B.Celek to PHI 45 for 10 yards), you would think it was just a normal play. Well it wasn't. Not by a long shot. The play demonstrated the frailties of the Eagles Offensive Line. Six players stayed in to block the Redskins THREE MAN RUSH, and all three guys got thisclose to Kolb, nearly sacking him. Alas, Kolb managed to get the throw off. The genius of the play was what the Redskins Defensive Line actually did. Albert Haynesworth lined up as the fourth rusher, so Eagles linemen Todd Herremans and Mike McGlynn went to double team him. But instead of rushing the passer, Haynesworth dropped back, catching Herremans and McGlynn off their guard. That made it three good pass-rushers on four, and the confusion amongst the Offensive Line nearly caused their Quarterback to be sacked. Had they got to him, I'd say it was the best defensive play I'd seen this season, but Kolb just got the throw off in time. Kudos to Mike Shanahan for the idea though.
- With twenty-seven seconds to go, Kolb overthrew McCoy. The incompletion? Nothing. The fact that DeSean Jackson was wide open ten-yards further down field? Disastrous.

The final play of the game is the perfect example of how pundits and writers judge a player's performance. Kolb was trashed by the media to an extent, but had the final play resulted in a touchdown, he would have been lauded for his great play. Kolb sends up a Hail Mary towards Celek and Jason Avant. Avant gets his hands on it, but drops it into the hands of DeAngelo Hall. Ballgame. If Avant completes the catch, it's a completely different story. Sure, criticism would still come in on Kolb's overall play, but the Eagles would be 3-1, and not 2-2. This has resulted in many writers picking the 49ers to beat the Eagles, when in my opinion, I see the Eagles performing well against the fledgeling Niners.

At the end of the day though, the Eagles lost, and the most important factor was the way the Redskins defence smothered the Eagles offense into short throws. Per @movingthechains (Sheil Kapadia of philly.com), “73% of Kolb's attempts travelled five yards or less from the line of scrimmage. Take away the final drive, and that's 84%.”


The Bears Offensive Line
The G-Men sacked Jay Cutler NINE times last Sunday night, setting the record for most sacks in a half of football. The ninth and final sack on Cutler put him on the sidelines for the rest of the game and this week's upcoming game against Carolina. So here's a blow-by-blow (sorry, Jay) of each sack, highlighting exactly where the play went wrong.

1. The Play: 3-10-CHI 39 (13:36) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 35 for -4 yards (72-O.Umenyiora).
Snap-to-Sack: 3.945 seconds
Blockers vs. Rushers: 6 vs. 4
What Happened: Umenyiora performs a swim move, and blows through Brandon Manumaleuna, the Tight End Chicago brought in especially for his BLOCKING.
Hilarious note: LG Roberto Garza blocked NO ONE.

2. The Play: 1-10-MIDFIELD (10:11) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 41 for -9 yards (99-C.Canty).
Snap-to-Sack: 3.160 seconds
Blockers vs. Rushers: 6 vs. 4
What Happened: Chris Canty just about kills Roberto Garza.

3. The Play: 3-7-CHI 31 (14:27) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 22 for -9 yards (72-O.Umenyiora). FUMBLES (72-O.Umenyiora), recovered by CHI-57-O.Kreutz at CHI 23. 57-O.Kreutz to CHI 29 for 6 yards (96-B.Cofield). Officially, a sack for 2 yards.
Snap-to-Sack: 3.784 seconds
Blockers vs. Rushers: 7 vs. 4
What Happened: The Bears put GREG OLSEN on Osi Umenyiora. Why?! Olsen immediately panics and fails at a chop block.

4. The Play: 1-10-CHI 35 (11:25) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 28 for -7 yards (91-J.Tuck). FUMBLES (91-J.Tuck), recovered by CHI-22-M.Forte at CHI 23. 22-M.Forte to CHI 23 for no gain (99-C.Canty). Officially, a sack for 12 yards.
Snap-to-Sack: 3.878 seconds
Blockers vs. Rushers: 7 vs. 4
What Happened: Another failed blocking assignment by Manumaleuna. Tuck just steals his lunch money.

5. The Play: 3-19-CHI 26 (9:59) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 23 for -3 yards (72-O.Umenyiora). FUMBLES (72-O.Umenyiora), touched at CHI 25, RECOVERED by NYG-34-D.Grant at CHI 29. 34-D.Grant to CHI 29 for no gain (80-E.Bennett). Officially, a sack for 1 yard.
Snap-to-Sack: 3.845 seconds
Blockers vs. Rushers: 6 vs. 4
What Happened: Osi just blows by backup Left Tackle Frank Omiyale. He didn't have a chance.

6. The Play: 2-7-CHI 23 (7:05) 6-J.Cutler sacked ob at CHI 21 for -2 yards (sack split by 54-J.Goff and 96-B.Cofield).
Snap-to-Sack: N/A
Blockers vs. Rushers: 8 (EIGHT) vs. 4
What Happened: I didn't include the snap-to-sack time as Cutler scrambled out of the pocket. Eight guys against four though? There are no excuses for a play of negative yards.

7. The Play: 3-9-CHI 21 (6:26) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 12 for -9 yards (91-J.Tuck).
Snap-to-Sack: 3.887 seconds
Blockers vs. Rushers: 7 vs. 4
What Happened: The Offensive Line disintigrated and Right Tackle Kevin Shaffer just seemed to give up, enabling Justin Tuck to dive at Cutler.

8. The Play: 1-10-CHI 48 (5:07) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 39 for -9 yards (96-B.Cofield).
Snap-to-Sack: 2.818 seconds
Blockers vs. Rushers: 7 vs. 4
What Happened: Just an awful, awful attempt at blocking by Right Guard Lance Louis. Cofield just walks through him.

9. The Play: 1-10-CHI 19 (:58) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 12 for -7 yards (31-A.Ross).
Snap-to-Sack: 3.197 seconds
Blockers vs. Rushers: 5 vs. 5
What Happened: The first play where Cutler is protected by the same number of guys coming after him? Of course he was gonna be sacked. Olsen goes into a route, leaving his man, Ross, to just go uncovered to Cutler. Ross wraps him up and dumps Cutler, smacking his head into the turf.

Result: A concussion for Cutler, and the Bears first loss of the season. On the eight timed snap-to-sacks, Cutler received on average 3.56 seconds to get the ball out. That's just not enough.

Before the season started, I wrote, “if Cutler keeps waiting and waiting behind a sieve of an offensive line, it won't be long before we see Todd Collins under center.” Boom. Week four. That didn't take long, did it?

Week 5 Picks
Jaguars @ Bills
Giants @ Texans
Chiefs @ Colts
Buccaneers @ Bengals
Packers @ Redskins
Rams @ Lions
Bears @ Panthers
Falcons @ Browns
Broncos @ Ravens
Saints @ Cardinals
Titans @ Cowboys
Chargers @ Raiders
Eagles @ 49ers
Vikings @ Jets

Last week: 11-3
Overall: 41-21

The Blindside

After reading Michael Lewis' The Blindside, I've become a lot more conscious of the presence of offensive line play in the NFL. Offensive linemen are often hidden in plain view, and the book goes into great detail of how the Left Tackle in particular goes about his business. The evolution of the Left Tackle, with more eyes on them than ever before, is because of the elite pass-rushers they have to go up against. As Lewis writes, it all started with Giants Outside Linebacker Lawrence Taylor, who made opposing coaches change their entire game-plan. Taylor was arguably the first elite, game-changing pass-rusher. He would line up opposing the Left Tackle, go around or through him, and then hit the Quarterback at his blind side (hence the name of the book). It's the point of weakness for all offences. It's the only area of the field the Quarterback can't see, so he has to be able to trust his Left Tackle to keep him safe. Obviously, this logic is based on the fact that most QBs are right handed. For left-handed QBs like Michael Vick and Matt Leinart, the best offensive tackle would then line up at Right Tackle.

Ever since reading the book, I've been intrigued by the battle between the Left Tackle and the pass rusher. I've found myself watching the battle more than actually watching the ball. So, for this week's column, I decided to look at two of the best Left Tackles in the game right now:


Jake Long (Miami Dolphins) vs. New York Jets
Long was the no1 overall pick in the 2008 draft, and he swiftly showed everyone that he was money well spent. If the Dolphins keep him happy, he should be there for fifteen years. Whether he's protecting QB Chad Henne or Running Backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams (when in the option formation, or 'wildcat'), they have nothing to worry about.

The Jets defense is renowned for being aggressive, hard-hitting and stubborn. They play the 3-4 defense and blitz a lot of men, a lot of the time, meaning Long would go up against different pass-rushers on each play. Sometimes he would be double-teamed too. I looked through every offensive play the Dolphins had in their 31-23 loss to the Jets, and this is what I found:

- On seventy-one offensive snaps, the Dolphins had double or triple protection (Running Backs, Linemen or Tight Ends) involving Long on only five of those plays.
- Those five plays came on passing downs, and not when Brown or Williams were taking the snap. The plays were decoys for run plays, but all turned into play-action. Two of the throws were deep, as they hoped the extra blocking and the hint of a run play would draw a safety so Marshall or Hartline would be one-on-one with the erratic Cromartie or the rookie Wilson. Of those five plays however, only one pass was completed, a seven yard gain to Hartline.
- He had trouble on only two plays. 1) A four yard run by Brown where Bryan Thomas managed to trip Brown. 2) On a third-and-ten, Thomas got thisclose to Henne before he got the throw off.
- Other problems on the offensive line really don't help him. On one play, Long and Incognito were lined up opposite two Jets pass-rushers. Long easily handles his man, but Incognito suffers from a lapse in concentration and lets Howard Green almost decapitate Henne.
- He lined up at Right Tackle for one snap – a wildcat play that finished with an end around the Left Tackle by Cobbs for a loss of six. The play was HORRIBLE.
- As I said, Bryan Thomas was the only Jet to give him any trouble. The other three starting Linebackers (Taylor, Harris, Scott) didn't get to breathe anywhere near Henne when Long was on them.
- There were two plays that stood out in particular when watching Long. The first was the eleven yard Touchdown pass to Brandon Marshall. The Jets blitz as it's third-and-one. Long gets matched up with two pass-rushers (Gholston and Cummings) and obliterates them, making them crash into each other, giving Henne all the time in the world to throw it to Marshall for the score. The second play was similar. On first-and-ten on the final drive of the game, the Jets blitz again. This time, Long faces Bryan Thomas, the only guy to make any sort of impact against him, and Drew Coleman. Long simply pushes Thomas back, and he stumbles into Coleman. Two birds, one stone. The result? A thirty yard pass to Marshall. Two Jets blitzes with two men on Long, two completed passes for forty one yards and a touchdown. I think the Jets can do that normally, but right now, when all-world Cornerback Darrelle Revis is out injured, they can't afford to free up those passing lanes for opposing offenses.

So what can you take from all of this? Well, for starters, despite it being only one game, everyone who watched Jake Long saw a great offensive tackle. The Dolphins are wasting their time putting in extra blockers on his side, when they could be using those guys as extra receivers. Despite the offense playing largely a good game, it's clear that the Dolphins could use an early round draft pick next year on an interior lineman to tighten things up. Richie Incognito has been playing good at Left Guard, but at times in this game he showed that he's certainly not the best Guard in the league by any measure.


Ryan Clady (Denver Broncos) vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Broncos spent their first overall pick in the 2008 draft (no12) on Boise State's Clady, and like Long, he has established himself as a very dependable NFL Left Tackle. This past Sunday he was challenged with protecting Quarterback Kyle Orton from one of the best pass-rushers in the league in the Colts' Dwight Freeney.

- On seventy-eight offensive snaps, nine featured double team protection on the left-side of the offensive line. Eight of them were passing downs, predominantly on third down. On most of those plays it was Clady and someone else blocking only Freeney, which in my eyes tells you the respect opposing coaches have for Freeney, not the frailties Denver see in Clady (at all).
- Clady handled Freeney very well, forcing him to rush the A gap (between the Center and a Guard) more often as the game progressed.
- Despite the little number of double teams, it surprised me that a considerable amount of the run plays were to the right, and not the left, where Clady is. Laurence Maroney, picked up in a trade with the Patriots is a horrible, horrible Running Back. He played a part in helping the Broncos lose this game (27-13) as he was just terrible. It wouldn't have mattered had there been five Ryan Cladys playing on the offensive line, he would have likely produced the same numbers (twelve rushes for twenty-four yards). He is a terrible runner who dances forever at the offensive line before being tackled (either by a defender, or by tripping over his own teammates).

Until Knowshon Moreno returns from injury, or the Broncos give more carries to Correll Buckhalter, the Broncos should just air it out against the Titans this week (despite the Titans having a solid group of defensive backs) because Maroney is stifling the team's potential. Clady's pass protection looks to be exquisite, so why shouldn't the Broncos play to their strengths - despite playing against their opponents best strength?

Week 4 Picks
Jets @ Bills
Bengals @ Browns
Broncos @ Titans
Panthers @ Saints
Lions @ Packers
Seahawks @ Rams
49ers @ Falcons
Ravens @ Steelers
Texans @ Raiders
Colts @ Jaguars
Redskins @ Eagles
Cardinals @ Chargers
Bears @ Giants
Patriots @ Dolphins

Last week: 10-6
Overall: 30-18

Quick Thoughts

Today is my Birthday (the big 22), so I have other things on the brain other than football. A few quick points to make, however...

NFL

Rest in peace, Kenny McKinley. No one can truly understand what you were going through, and it's a shame that it had to end the way it did. The Broncos receiver committed suicide this past week, and police say he was suffering from depression due to his lingering and recurring injuries that barred him from playing frequently for Denver. McKinley leaves behind a wife and son, and my deep condolences go out to them.

Woody Paige of the Denver Post wrote a moving article about how he almost committed suicide due to depression. - http://bit.ly/bXyuCi

Braylon Edwards needs to get his act together.
The DUI - http://bit.ly/9YWFgf
The hilarious reason why this could have been avoided - http://bit.ly/bpJaqB

Michael Vick was named as starting Quarterback for the Philadelphia Eagles, after Kevin Kolb played ONE HALF OF FOOTBALL before suffering a concussion against the Packers in week one. I somewhat agree with the situation, but it's still a weird thing to do...you know, benching your franchise player after he's waited three years to get the opportunity. Coach Andy Reid seems like a different man these days.

Soccer
Great column by Jonathan Liew of the Telegraph on why Match of the Day pundit Alan Shearer is a disgrace (and a strange looking man-baby). - http://bit.ly/9YZs34

Chelsea take on Manchester City today in the latest pissing contest between billionaires Roman Abramovich and Sheik Mansour. On the field, it's a completely different story. Chelsea, who boast the second best goal difference after five top-flight games in football history with plus-20 (Everton had plus-21 in 1890-91), should beat Citeh handily. The Mancs played Chelsea well last season, doing the double over them, but Chelsea look like they can take on the world right now. The game is in progress right now, and surprisingly, City just took the lead...

Baseball
My Philadelphia Phillies (93-61) are the best team in the Majors right now, after the Yankees (92-62) and Twins (92-62) both lost last night. The Rays (92-61) win against Baltimore puts them back in second place. The Yankees probably won't care that the Rays are odds on to claim the AL East. They most likely want the Rays to take that mantle so they can avoid the Texas Rangers in the playoffs. With the wild card berth, the Yankees would travel to Target Field to face the Twins, a team they probably feel they have a better chance against. The Yankees are 5-2 against the Twins this season, but 4-4 against the Rangers. More importantly, against the Rangers' ace Cliff Lee, they have struggled at times (most recently scoring one run over eight innings @ Yankee Stadium against him two weeks ago). The Lefty destroyed the Yanks in Game 1 of the World Series last year when he was with the Phillies (9IP – 6H – 1ER – 0BB – 10SO - @ Yankee Stadium).

As for the AL Cy Young award voting, it really is up in the air. On Thursday night, all three contenders started, but only one helped his case. Rays pitcher David Price and Yankees pitcher CC Sabathia faced each other in an 'epic battle', which quickly turned into a hitters game.

Price (18-6) 2.84ERA
- 6IP – 8H – 3ER – 4BB - 7SO - WIN
Sabathia (20-7) 3.26ERA
- 5.1IP – 10H – 7ER – 3BB – 6SO - LOSS

It wasn't a typical game contested between two of the teams' aces. Meanwhile, the dark horse for the award, Seattle Mariners pitcher Felix Hernandez did this to the Blue Jays:

Hernandez (12-12) 2.31ERA
- 8IP – 2H – 1ER – 4BB – 5SO - LOSS

Other than the three individual performances from just those games, the stat that sticks out is each guy's win-loss record. No Cy Young award winner has won less than sixteen games (the amount Zach Greinke had last season). But you have to say that Hernandez is a special case. He's playing for a team that has two Major League hitters (Ichiro and Figgins), whilst the Yankees and Rays boast around 40 combined everyday hitters that would walk into most line-ups (barring the Phillies and Twins). If King Felix was on the Yankees, he could have won 25 games this season, but sadly for him, he isn't. In his thirty-three starts this season, he's received zero or one run in support in ten games. That's pathetic. If Felix doesn't get the Cy Young, it should go to David Price based on his ERA, and the fact that ten of Sabathia's wins have come against the historically inept offenses that are the Indians, Mariners, Orioles and Royals.

Week 3 NFL Picks
Titans @ Giants
Bengals @ Panthers
Cowboys @ Texans
49ers @ Chiefs
Steelers @ Buccaneers
Bills @ Patriots
Browns @ Ravens
Lions @ Vikings
Falcons @ Saints (UPSET SPECIAL!)
Redskins @ Rams
Eagles @ Jaguars
Colts @ Broncos
Raiders @ Cardinals
Chargers @ Seahawks
Jets @ Dolphins
Packers @ Bears

Last week: 10-6
Overall: 20-12

I'm 22 today, which means I've reached Dallas Cowboys HOFer Emmitt Smith in jersey-number-age. I just hope I don't start talking like him...

The Case Against Extending the NFL Season

As most NFL fans know, many NFL team owners want to expand the season to eighteen games instead of sixteen, and drop two pre-season games. They claim this will provide fans with more football, more entertainment and more...more what exactly? The only reason the owners want to extend the season is so they can earn more money from television revenue and ticket sales. Writers and fans that agree with extending the season draw their reasons from how boring the pre-season is, citing solutions by adding an extra bye week and expanding the size of the rosters.

I'm totally against an eighteen-game season, and the main reason is the amount on injuries that pile up so early and often in the brutal game. The owners that want two extra games are greedy. Do these millionaires (some billionaires) really need that little-bit-more? Do they need more of the players they love so much landing on injured reserve with season ending injuries? Nine players were placed on injured reserve this week after ONE game. A game! How can there be a good argument for more games when so many guys get hurt?

A look at the guys whose seasons are finished:

Carolina Panthers – Todd Carter (K) - Back
Obviously, Kickers are easily replaceable. I'm sure Scotsman Rhys Lloyd will do well in relief.

Chicago Bears - Hunter Hillenmeyer (LB) – Concussion
A significant loss for the Bears. Hillenmeyer suffered the concussion in week three of the pre-season, but returned to start this past Sunday against the Lions. However, he had to leave the game after feeling unwell.

Detroit Lions – Aaron Berry (CB) – Right Shoulder
The Lions acted quickly, adding Nate Vasher from the street to replace Berry. With the Lions being the Lions, if you haven't heard of Berry, he's probably not that valuable.

Green Bay Packers – Ryan Grant (RB) – Ankle
One of the biggest losses from week one. After successive 1,200yd rushing seasons, the Packers have to turn to backup Brandon Jackson, a guy who hasn't started a game since 2007, when he lost his starting job to...you guessed it, Ryan Grant. With Aaron Rodgers looking the way he is, it wouldn't surprise me if the injury barely affects the Packers offense. If anything, Rodgers will just get to throw the ball more and beef his stats for MVP candidacy.

Green Bay Packers – Justin Harrell (DE) – Knee
A starting Defensive End in a 3-4 defense is usually a big loss, but Harrell hasn't played up to his sixteenth overall selection in 2007, not by a long shot (two career games started, TWO). The Packers Defensive line should be fine without him (Pickett-Raji-Jenkins).


Houston Texans – Connor Barwin (DE) – Right Ankle
A big loss for the Texans, as Barwin completely shattered his ankle (as you can see in the picture). The Texans immediately signed free agents Ryan Denney and Adewale Ogunleye to replace him. Personally, I'm a big fan of Ogunleye and believe he'll bookend the D-line with Mario Williams over Denney for the remander of the season.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Jarrett Dillard (WR) – Undisclosed
A backup.

Kansas City Chiefs – Cameron Sheffield (LB) – Neck
A good prospect who will have to wait a year now. Shame.

New York Jets – Kris Jenkins (NT) – Knee
It's a loss for the Jets, but it could have been worse. The Jets barely differed in performance with and without Jenkins last year when he was suspended for four games. It begs the question of whether Rex Ryan's system is manageable by most players, and not just the very best. Matt Kroul replaced him in the game against the Ravens and managed pretty well against Ravens Center Matt Birk.

Philadelphia Eagles – Jamaal Jackson (C) - Torn Right Triceps
A nasty injury for the Eagles to get over. Nick Cole, the starting Right Guard who replaced Jackson (due to injury) last season for the Divisional Round game at Dallas, will most likely get the nod at Center. If he struggles however, Mike McGlynn did a good job in relief of Jackson when he went down last Sunday. If Cole does in fact start at Center, recent acquisition Reggie Wells (from Arizona) will take his place at RG.

Philadelphia Eagles – Leonard Weaver (FB) – Torn Left ACL
Weaver had a strong first season in Philly last year, and now his second season is over. The Eagles signed Owen Schmitt to replace him, a good move in my opinion. The Eagles chose him over Hard Knocks guy Jason Davis, which pleased me as Davis came off as egotistical and a locker room problem on the show. The crazy Schmitt will likely become a cult hero in Philadelphia if he manages to stay in the lineup.


San Diego Chargers – David Binn (LS) – Hamstring
Of course, a Long Snapper isn't a big loss. But still, I'm sure someone shed a tear for the guy. Well, maybe a relative...or maybe just him. /harsh

Seattle Seahawks – Max Unger (C) - Left Toe
Unger played a big part in keeping Matt Hasselbeck on his feet this past Sunday (as always), and without him there, Hasselbeck will have to be a lot more mobile, which can be difficult for a Quarterback about to turn 35. Thankfully for the Seahawks, their first round pick Russell Okung should be fit and healthy for week two.

It's not just players going on injured reserve that is worrying, it's the more dangerous short-term injuries that can result in long-term after affects. I'm talking of course about concussions. With Hillenmeyer down for the season with one, it's only a matter of time before more players are hit the same. This past Sunday, FOUR players suffered concussions - Eagles Quarterback Kevin Kolb, Eagles Linebacker Stewart Bradley, Panthers Quarterback Matt Moore, and Giants Tight End Kevin Boss. What's even worse, is Kolb and Bradley went back in to the game after they had suffered concussions! Coach Andy Reid claims they were misdiagnosed, but the NFLPA are investigating. The NFL requires a player to leave a game if they suffer a concussion. The players are then subject to tests throughout the week, and cannot practice until they are deemed physically fit to perform by independent doctors.

If it were up to me, a player suffering from a concussion would automatically be exempt from playing in the team's next game (unless a bye week followed). Players can't be too careful with brain injuries, which is why the NFL had teams put these up in the locker room:



A sobering reminder of what can happen to a person after suffering multiple concussions came from an article in the New York Times this week. University of Pennsylvania player Owen Thomas committed suicide this past April despite having no history of suffering a concussion. The autopsy showed his brain to be in the “early stages of chronic traumatic encephalopathy, a disease linked to depression and impulse control primarily.“ Thomas was said to be a popular person, with no signs of depression. His parents said he never complained of headaches, but admitted he was the kind of player who would keep quiet about a concussion so he could stay in a game. That's the problem. Players don't want to come out of games because they believe it will hurt their job security. Eagles Right Tackle Winston Justice came out this week and said he's played in games where he couldn't remember where he was, or what the previous play was, but he continued on just out of instinct. Players need to be comfortable in admitting they've suffered a concussion, because the long term after effects can be deathly. Two former NFL players, Shane Dronett and Andre Waters, both took their lives after suffering from brain damage and brain tumors from playing football. They each became depressed and were seemingly left with no other choice. Nobody should have to go through the loss of a loved one because they played a brutal sport.

So, a solution is needed. Once again, if I was in charge, I would do three things:
- Increase suspensions and fines for helmet-to-helmet hits
- Take out a pre-season game, start the season a week earlier and have two bye weeks for each team.
- Automatic one game suspension (unless the next game is after a bye) if a player tests positive for a concussion.

The increase in suspension time would hopefully help decrease the amount of head injuries, and the add and subtract of a pre-season game for a bye week would help improve overall health, and give four teams an extra prime time television game, which would help the owners and their wallets (a little). I don't see how anyone but the owners could disagree with this proposal.

If there had been an extra bye week for teams last season, some of the twenty players who were placed on injured reserve in the first three weeks may have only been placed on the physically unable to perform list instead, meaning they would have been eligible to return to the team when they were healthy again. And what would one less pre-season game do to downsize injuries? Hundreds of players are on injured reserve due to injuries suffered in the largely wasteful pre-season, and you have to think how much one game less would make when each team made up their final fifty-three man rosters.

Week 2 Picks
Ravens @ Bengals
Bears @ Cowboys
Eagles @ Lions
Cardinals @ Falcons
Chiefs @ Browns
Bills @ Packers
Steelers @ Titans
Buccaneers @ Panthers
Dolphins @ Vikings
Rams @ Raiders
Seahawks @ Broncos
Texans @ Redskins
Patriots @ Jets
Jaguars @ Chargers
Giants @ Colts
Saints @ 49ers

Last week: 10-6

The Big Fat NFL Preview

The NFL and Subjective Math

I'm not a stout statistician like the guys at Football Outsiders, who use every single stat under the sun, for example, from Monday's MMQB by Peter King, “Tom Brady will face the toughest schedule of pass defenses for any QB since 1993.” The FO guys break down everything in every game and use the numbers to predict the future. My idea is to do a more simple, and way more subjective set of predictions. Because they are subjective, they obviously don't represent the truth, they represent what I personally think of each team.

So, thirty-two teams worked out in my own subjective way. I'll mark (out of ten) the Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Receivers (WR and TE), Offensive Line, Defensive Line, Linebackers, secondary (CB and S), the coaching of each team, and the strength of schedule (in their favour) they face this upcoming season. Nine categories, a score out of Ninety. In terms of a tie, teams will be separated by their QB, and then if necessary, their combined defense (why not? After all, “defense wins championships”).

Here we go...

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
QB: 8 RB: 8 WR/TE: 8 OL: 6 DL: 8 LB: 8 CB/S: 6 Coaching: 8 Schedule: 4
TOTAL: 64
The Cowboys are NFC contenders for sure. A good receiving core from last year is upgraded with the drafting of Dez Bryant, making Tony Romo an even bigger offensive threat. They have one of the best groups of pass-rushers in the league with DeMarcus Ware and Theo Ratliff. Their weaknesses lie in their offensive line, which despite getting rid of Flozell Adams; managed to replace him with a just-as-likely-to-get-flagged-all-the-time tackle in Alex Barron from the Rams. The secondary is weak too, and they should pick up another CB soon (there are only 3 on the roster).

New York Giants
QB: 8 RB: 6 WR/TE: 8 OL: 8 DL: 7 LB: 6 CB/S: 6 Coaching: 8 Schedule: 5
TOTAL: 62
A diminishing set of Running Backs should hamper the Giants this season. Brandon Jacobs has already spoken out about a lack of carries in the pre-season compared to Ahmad Bradshaw. However, they're strong in most other areas. Eli Manning seems to be getting better by the season, with brother-like numbers last year. Tough games at pass-happy Minnesota, Indy and Green Bay will be major tasks for their secondary.

Philadelphia Eagles
QB: 6 RB: 6 WR/TE: 8 OL: 6 DL: 8 LB: 7 CB/S: 6 Coaching: 8 Schedule: 5
TOTAL: 60
Kolb looks better than a 6, but it's hard to rate him any higher just yet. He played well in his 2 starts last year, but has to prove he can lead the Eagles for a full 16-game slate. In a west coast offense, the Eagles are loaded at receiver, and their blitz packages are loaded with extraordinary pass-rushers. You can never have too much of a bad thing. I've rated Andy Reid's coaching high based on his long-term success, not his two-minute offense, which I'd rate 0. Seriously.

Washington Redskins
QB: 7 RB: 5 WR/TE: 6 OL: 7 DL: 8 LB: 7 CB/S: 6 Coaching: 7 Schedule: 5
TOTAL: 58
Though the Redskins DL is rated an 8, the case could be they play more like a 5. Haynesworth isn't happy he played all but 3 snaps of the 4th pre-season game, which really is a slap in the face. Sure, he bitched and moaned all off-season, but I think the conditioning tests were enough humiliation from coach Shanahan. Elsewhere, the Redskins young receivers need to step up. Cooley will likely be McNabb's best friend, and the zone-blocking line should propel Portis and Larry Johnson to a good, joint stat line for the season. Then again, Shanahan's tendencies for ignoring his defense like he did in Denver may come back to haunt him once again.

NFC North
Chicago Bears
QB: 7 RB: 7 WR/TE: 6 OL: 3 DL: 7 LB: 8 CB/S: 6 Coaching: 7 Schedule: 5
TOTAL: 56
A lot of people were heralding the hire of Mike Martz as Offensive Coordinator as an early success, saying Cutler looked good in training camp. But it doesn't look too good now. In the pre-season, Cutler was sacked 10 times on just 37 passing attempts. That's just terrible. If you're gonna play Martz's system, you have to have more guys blocking. The system is all about throwing into passing lanes before the receiver gets there, and if Cutler keeps waiting and waiting behind a sieve of an offensive line, it won't be long before we see Todd Collins under center. The return of Brian Urlacher is big. The Bears 23rd ranked defense of last year will be much improved thanks to his return and the free agent signing of Julius Peppers.

Detroit Lions
QB: 6 RB: 6 WR/TE: 7 OL: 5 DL: 8 LB: 6 CB/S: 7 Coaching: 6 Schedule: 5
TOTAL: 56
The Lions could be a juggernaut on offense this season (for once). They're loaded at Tight End, and of course have Megatron (Calvin Johnson) on the outside. Jahvid Best could be an impact player from the get-go and the development of Stafford will be key to their success. The defense is what everyone will be looking at though. Their DL looks amazing (Avril, Suh, Williams, Van den Bosch) and their secondary isn't too shabby either with the impressive Louis Delmas leading the way at Safety.

Green Bay Packers
QB: 8 RB: 7 WR/TE: 8 OL: 6 DL: 6 LB: 7 CB/S: 7 Coaching: 7 Schedule: 6
TOTAL: 61
Many are calling the Packers the favourites in the NFC. If Rodgers can do well behind a shoddy OL last year, he should fare better with the addition of Bryan Bulaga. The only real worry for the Pack could be their banged-up and ageing secondary. Then again, they do have the Defensive Player of the Year in Charles Woodson. The loss of Aaron Kampman doesn't really affect the DL as he was largely a non-factor in the 3-4. They should be a lock to win the NFC North at the very least.

Minnesota Vikings
QB: 7 RB: 9 WR/TE: 7 OL: 7 DL: 9 LB: 6 CB/S: 7 Coaching: 6 Schedule: 5
TOTAL: 63

Well, the old man is back. I rated Favre a 7 because, well, he's an old man. I don't see him putting up numbers like he did last year, especially with Sidney Rice out for half the season. Chilly should give the ball to Peterson more often this season (unless Favre audibles into pass-plays again and again) and should be able to rely on an incredible DL to stop the likes of Jahvid Best, Ryan Grant and Matt Forte. The Vikes are another team who have secondary issues, with rookie Chris Cook already out injured, so they will have to turn to the sometimes unreliable Lito Sheppard (Peyton Manning's best friend) as cover.

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
QB: 7 RB: 7 WR/TE: 7 OL: 6 DL: 6 LB: 7 CB/S: 7 Coaching: 6 Schedule: 6
TOTAL: 59
It's Matt Ryan's third season, and he'll probably play at the level of a 5th or 6th year starter. In my opinion, he's that good. They have an improved defense with the additions of Dunta Robinson and Sean Weatherspoon, but will be relying on the perceived improvement of DE Kroy Biermann. The loss of Michael Jenkins at WR is not too bad, considering Ryan has Gonzalez and Roddy White to throw too. A healthy Michael Turner will be a big help If he plays anything like he did in his breakout 2008 season.

Carolina Panthers
QB: 5 RB: 9 WR/TE: 6 OL: 6 DL: 6 LB: 6 CB/S: 7 Coaching: 7 Schedule: 6
TOTAL: 58
Fantastic Running Backs, potential at Quarterback, but 3rd place looks likely. I think Matt Moore is a capable QB, but we've never seen him for a full season. The D will have to step up after losing Peppers. Peter King called the Panthers his sleeper team, but I see this as a transitional year. Jimmy Clausen might wind up starting the last couple of games if that is the case. I've got them ranked 21st, which suggests not a complete do-over, but rather a developmental year.

New Orleans Saints
QB: 9 RB: 8 WR/TE: 8 OL: 7 DL: 6 LB: 7 CB/S: 8 Coaching: 9 Schedule: 7
TOTAL: 69
The Super Bowl winners are still the best team in the NFL in my opinion. It's hard to argue they're not. They've got one of the best offenses in the league and their defense looks to be better than last year. Darren Sharper is lost to the PUP (physically unable to perform) list for the first 6 weeks, so converted Safety Malcolm Jenkins fills in for him. Rookie CB Patrick Robinson replaces Jenkins, and is touted to be a much better fit than his predecessor. Their biggest loss was short-yardage back Mike Bell, but his duties will likely be given to Pierre Thomas or Heath Evans.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
QB: 5 RB: 5 WR/TE: 5 OL: 5 DL: 7 LB: 7 CB/S: 6 Coaching: 5 Schedule: 6
TOTAL: 51
Sub-par offense in another rebuilding year, with an average to above average defense. The very young Bucs could surprise a few teams this year. Rookie WR Mike Williams is likely to be the no1 wide-out and Gerald McCoy at DT is a massive upgrade to their defense. The basement of the NFC South is very likely.

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
QB: 5 RB: 6 WR/TE: 8 OL: 7 DL: 8 LB: 7 CB/S: 7 Coaching: 7 Schedule: 7
TOTAL: 57
Kurt Warner's retirement is massive. His understudy Matt Leinart is now in Houston after playing and talking himself off the team, and former Brown Derek Anderson is now the starter. It wouldn't surprise me to see BYU rookie QB Max Hall playing by season's end. The plus side for the Cardinals is their defense. Daryl Washington and Joey Porter improves the LB core, and the re-signing of monster DT Darnell Dockett is key to stopping guys like Steven Jackson and Frank Gore twice a year.

San Francisco 49ers
QB: 6 RB: 8 WR/TE: 8 OL: 7 DL: 7 LB: 8 CB/S: 6 Coaching: 7 Schedule: 7
TOTAL: 64
I think you could swap Alex Smith for most of the starting Quarterbacks in the league and you would get the same results (bar the upper echelon of Brady/Brees/Manning). The 49ers offense rests on Gore, Davis, Crabtree et al. Smith will be kept upright more often this season with the addition of rookie Offensive Linemen Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati. The D is in the hands of Defensive Player of the Year candidate Patrick Willis.

Seattle Seahawks
QB: 5 RB: 5 WR/TE: 6 OL: 7 DL: 6 LB: 8 CB/S: 6 Coaching: 5 Schedule: 7
TOTAL: 55
Pete Carroll's already revamped Seahawks are rebuilding. It's clear Carroll didn't like what Mike Holmgren and Jim Mora Jr. left him. OL coach Alex Gibbs has just left because of health issues, but the Seahawks could be better with the OL they have playing anything but a zone-blocking scheme (they're just not built for it). RT Stacey Andrews, just acquired from the Eagles, could be a mistake waiting to happen. He's played RG for the majority of his career, so a change to a tougher position may prove costly if he doesn't grasp the playbook quickly. Earl Thomas should be a defensive playmaker.

St. Louis Rams
QB: 5 RB: 8 WR/TE: 6 OL: 6 DL: 6 LB: 6 CB/S: 5 Coaching: 6 Schedule: 7
TOTAL: 55
I think no1 overall pick Sam Bradford will play better than a 5. The Rams are rebuilding, slowly. Bottom of the NFC West is most likely. There just isn't much to say about the Rams. They acquired WR Mark Clayton from the Ravens this week to lead the young group of receivers. The Rams are relying on breakout performances from A LOT of guys.

AFC East
Buffalo Bills
QB: 4 RB: 7 WR/TE: 5 OL: 5 DL: 6 LB: 5 CB/S: 7 Coaching: 5 Schedule: 5
TOTAL: 49
I have the Bills ranked 32 of 32, and how can I not? They have two potential star players (RB Fred Jackson and S Jairus Byrd) and a Quarterback competition that reeks of mediocrity at best. The Bills are likely to win the Andrew Luck/Jake Locker sweepstakes with the team and coaching staff (Chan Gailey?!) they have right now. They haven't replaced DE Aaron Schobel either, good one, Bills. If they win 4 games, I'll be astounded.

Miami Dolphins
QB: 7 RB: 8 WR/TE: 8 OL: 7 DL: 6 LB: 6 CB/S: 6 Coaching: 7 Schedule: 5
TOTAL: 60
Chad Henne proved last season he's more than capable of leading the Dolphins. Because of that, the Big Tuna rewarded him with a new toy, namely wide out Brandon Marshall. Early concerns about Marshall dropping balls in pre-season will go away after the first game. Every WR drops balls in pre-season, and then they're quickly forgotten about after that first TD grab in week 1. Miami strengthened it's D in the draft, and is gonna be in a dogfight with the Jets and the Patriots. I expect at least two of them to make it to the playoffs.

New England Patriots
QB: 9 RB: 6 WR/TE: 8 OL: 7 DL: 7 LB: 7 CB/S: 5 Coaching: 9 Schedule: 4
TOTAL: 62
Enough talk of the banged up Patriots being past their best. Brady is fully fit (with a fat wallet coming soon according to ESPN) and he's proved in the past he can win with mediocre receivers. He'll have Moss on the outside, Welker in the slot when he's 100%, and two rookie Tight Ends (Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez) who could make an immediate impact. Though the Patriots rank 10th, they will most likely play better than that. The only hindrance to the Pats is their young and inexperienced secondary, so they could be in a lot of shoot-outs this season.

New York Jets
QB: 5 RB: 8 WR/TE: 8 OL: 8 DL: 8 LB: 8 CB/S: 9 Coaching: 8 Schedule: 5
TOTAL: 67
The Jets are going to be a force this season, that's what everyone's saying anyway. This subjective math gives them a ranking of second. Their secondary was ranked an 8 just 3 days ago, but then shutdown corner Darrelle Revis ended his holdout, and he makes the Jets defense elite. Had he not signed, teams would have been throwing all over rookie CB Kyle Wilson. Mark Sanchez has to show that his pre-season play was just a blip, and with Santonio Holmes at his disposal (after week 4 when his suspension finishes), the Jets passing offense should be better than last season.

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
QB: 7 RB: 8 WR/TE: 8 OL: 8 DL: 8 LB: 8 CB/S: 6 Coaching: 8 Schedule: 5
TOTAL: 66
This could be the Ravens' year. The only thing missing from their line-up last year was a game-changing receiver. This off-season they've added Wide Receivers Anquan Boldin, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Donte Stallworth, to go along with the veteran Derrick Mason. Ray Rice is one of the best Running Backs in the league and will probably get around 350 touches this season. The only problem they have is a lack of depth in the secondary, and ball-hawk Ed Reed (every announcer just loves to call him that, don't they?) is on the PUP list until week 7. Michael Oher has now moved to LT (yes, The Blindside, aren't we all clever?) and struggled a little in pre-season, but other than that, the Ravens look very solid.

Cincinnati Bengals
QB: 7 RB: 8 WR/TE: 8 OL: 6 DL: 6 LB: 7 CB/S: 8 Coaching: 8 Schedule: 4
TOTAL: 62
After the mess with Antonio Bryant and the acquisition of Terrell Owens, the Bengals still manage to look good this season. They have one of the deepest and best receiving corps in the league (Ochocinco, Owens, Caldwell, Shipley, Gresham) and a good power run game with Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott. Those offensive weapons have to enable Carson Palmer to play better than he did towards the end of last season, which was a big factor in them crashing out to the Jets. A healthy Keith Rivers (LB) will improve the run defense (11th last year).

Cleveland Browns
QB: 4 RB: 6 WR/TE: 5 OL: 7 DL: 7 LB: 6 CB/S: 7 Coaching: 5 Schedule: 5
TOTAL: 52
Jake Delhomme at Quarterback. Yikes. He's had a good pre-season, but the dude could be dead in week 3 if Suh comes at him a-house-on-fire again. They've already lost rookie runner Montario Hardesty, so Jerome Harrison is left alone to carry the rock. Joe Haden is expected of to be a fine, fine player, and he'll have to prove his no7 overall draft choice worth soon if the Brownies are gonna win games. It's a transitional year, and maybe Eric Mangini's last.

Pittsburgh Steelers
QB: 7 RB: 7 WR/TE: 7 OL: 5 DL: 6 LB: 9 CB/S: 9 Coaching: 9 Schedule: 6
TOTAL: 65
I've ranked the QB at 7 due to Roethlisberger's 4 week suspension. Dennis Dixon has been named starter after Byron Leftwich went down in pre-season, and he is probably capable of leading the Steelers to a 2-2 start at least. If he leads them to a 4-0 start, he should carry on under center in my opinion, and make Big Ben pay for what he did. He can't just walk back on to the field if Dixon is proving himself as a capable starter. On defense, Polamalu is fit and ready to go, and they should dominate as they always do.

AFC South
Houston Texans
QB: 8 RB: 6 WR/TE: 8 OL: 6 DL: 8 LB: 7 CB/S: 6 Coaching: 6 Schedule: 4
TOTAL: 59
Though the Texans signed Matt Leinart, it probably won't matter much at all in the grand scheme of things. Schaub will keep his starting job no matter what, and Leinart's there just in case Schaub goes down (like he did last year against the Jaguars, and SEXY REXY Grossman had to fail in his place for a quarter). The defense is good, but will have to deal with the loss of Dunta Robinson to the Falcons. Rookie CB Kareem Jackson starts in his place, and will probably be targeted a lot by Peyton Manning. If I'm coach Kubiak, I'm on the phone to free agent DE Aaron Schobel right now trying to work out a deal to get him in his hometown team's uniform.

Indianapolis Colts
QB: 9 RB: 7 WR/TE: 8 OL: 7 DL: 6 LB: 7 CB/S: 8 Coaching: 9 Schedule: 5
TOTAL: 66
The 3rd ranked Colts should be better than last year, and last year they were Super Bowl runners up. They've improved their run defense with rookie LB Jerry Hughes, their secondary with the return of Safety Bob Sanders, and their passing attack with the return of receiver Anthony Gonzalez. I'd be surprised if they don't win 13 games this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars
QB: 6 RB: 9 WR/TE: 6 OL: 6 DL: 7 LB: 7 CB/S: 6 Coaching: 6 Schedule: 4
TOTAL: 57
The Jaguars are a tough team to break down. They improved their OL last year, and their DL this year (DE Aaron Kampman from the Packers and DE Tyson Alualu with their first draft pick). Teams are built at the line, now they need something more from their skill positions. RB Maurice Jones-Drew is arguably the 3rd best back in the league and Mike Sims-Walker earned the role of the go-to-guy over Tory Holt for QB David Garrard last season. Speaking of Garrard however, his pre-season was terrible, and he was badly outshone by backup Luke McCown. If he doesn't do well in the first few weeks, he'll be yanked for McCown. Oh, and they dumped Safety Reggie Nelson, about time they rid themselves of a guy who can't tackle AT ALL. +1 Jags.

Tennessee Titans
QB: 6 RB: 9 WR/TE: 6 OL: 9 DL: 6 LB: 7 CB/S: 7 Coaching: 7 Schedule: 4
TOTAL: 61
Nothing much has changed for the Titans. They've had a quiet off-season (bar Vince Young punching people in nightclubs) and haven't changed much. They traded away LenDale White to Seattle (who then bounced to Denver, and then to injured reserve), added pass-rusher Derrick Morgan in the draft, and signed LB Will Witherspoon in free agency. They played well last season when VY replaced Kerry Collins, going 8-2, so you would think they can go above that this season.

AFC West
Denver Broncos
QB: 6 RB: 6 WR/TE: 6 OL: 7 DL: 6 LB: 6 CB/S : 8 Coaching: 5 Schedule: 6
TOTAL: 56
Josh McDaniels' revamp of the Broncos has been...interesting. Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler were shipped out and replaced by rookies Deymarius Thomas and Eric Decker, and coach McDaniels is now grooming Tim Tebow to be his QB of the future. The loss of DE Elvis Dumervil is a huge hindrance to their Defensive Line, which I would have rated a 9 with him (he's that good). They could be unseated by the Raiders (gasp) in the race for 2nd, because we all know the Chargers will walk the division again.

Kansas City Chiefs
QB: 5 RB: 8 WR/TE: 7 OL: 5 DL: 6 LB: 6 CB/S: 8 Coaching: 6 Schedule: 6
TOTAL: 57
A power-run game with the electrifying Jamaal Charles and the A-gap attacker Thomas Jones should propel the Chiefs to some more wins this season. Rookie playmaker Eric Berry should give the Chiefs secondary a huge upgrade, and Brandon Flowers at CB can only be good for each other's development. The 3rd RB, Dexter McCluster, a Reggie Bush/Percy Harvin type back/receiver could be dynamite for the offense. QB Matt Cassel just needs to be efficient with the ball.

Oakland Raiders
QB: 5 RB: 6 WR/TE: 6 OL: 5 DL: 8 LB: 8 CB/S: 8 Coaching: 5 Schedule: 5
TOTAL: 56
I expect the Raiders to be a lot better this season, well, an improvement at least in the post-JaMarcus Russell era. Jason Campbell is a massive upgrade at QB, and the Raiders dumped LB Kirk Morrison for rookie Rolando McClain (fresh off a National Championship win at Alabama). The offensive line is a worry, meaning we may see Bruce Gradkowski a few times this season, but the defense looks strong. Second place in the AFC West is not out of the question.

San Diego Chargers
QB: 8 RB: 7 WR/TE: 8 OL: 6 DL: 7 LB: 8 CB/S: 7 Coaching: 7 Schedule: 7
TOTAL: 65
Finally, the Chargers. They may be without holdouts LT Marcus McNeill and stud wide-out Vincent Jackson, but a friendly schedule and a reinforced power run game with Ryan Mathews balances things out. With Patrick Crayton acquired from Dallas, the Chargers are likely to be a less-vertical team, with more short passes to Crayton, Gates and Sproles, before they eventually do go deep to Malcolm Floyd, who has shown glimpses of greatness at times. Rivers may not put up similar numbers to years gone by, but the Chargers are a well oiled machine that should make the Divisional Round.

Now, to look at how each team ranks: (click thumbnail)



From this subjective math, the Saints will beat the Jets in the Super Bowl, with the Colts and Cowboys making the Conference title games. These are not my predictions however, this is just an experiment after all.

Speaking of predictions, here are mine...

NFC East
Cowboys 11-5
Eagles 10-6
Giants 7-9
Redskins 7-9

NFC North
Packers 14-2
Vikings 11-5
Bears 6-10
Lions 4-12

NFC South
Saints 12-4
Falcons 10-6
Panthers 5-11
Buccaneers 1-15

NFC West
49ers 11-5
Cardinals 6-10
Rams 3-13
Seahawks 3-13

AFC East
Patriots 12-4
Jets 11-5
Dolphins 8-8
Bills 1-15

AFC North
Ravens 13-3
Steelers 12-4
Bengals 12-4
Browns 2-14

AFC South
Colts 13-3
Texans 8-8
Titans 7-9
Jaguars 6-10

AFC West
Chargers 14-2
Raiders 6-10
Broncos 5-11
Chiefs 5-11



You may have noticed the glaring exemption from the playoffs, the Jets. I'm just not that high on them. They were 9-7 last season and have added good veterans (Jason Taylor, Antonio Cromartie and LaDainian Tomlinson) who could be boom or bust. Personally, I see a bust.

MVP
Aaron Rodgers (QB), Green Bay Packers
He's the smart man's betting option. He's likely to put up massive numbers (maybe 35-40 Touchdowns) and lead the Packers deep into the playoffs.

Offensive Player of the Year
Ray Rice (RB), Baltimore Ravens
Normally, I'd pick Rodgers because, if he's MVP, he has to be the best offensive player too. But that's not how it works in the voting for this award, it's always someone else. I see Rice building on his impressive breakout 2009 season and leading the league in all-purpose yards in the midst of a great season for the Ravens.

Defensive Player of the Year
Patrick Willis (LB), San Francisco 49ers
The next-incarnation of the beast Middle Linebacker, Willis will lead the 49er defense to a divisional title, amassing well over 100 tackles with many force fumbles, interceptions and
sacks to boot.

Offensive Rookie of the Year
Ryan Mathews (RB), San Diego Chargers
With the Chargers shift from a vertical passing game to a power run game with an intermediate passing game, I expect Mathews to excel and prove that the Chargers were right to trade up for him. At least 1,100yds and 9 Touchdowns in my estimation.

Defensive Rookie of the Year
Ndamukong Suh (DT), Detroit Lions
He may not have the numbers that easily show DROY credentials, but those that watch him specifically this season will see how much of a disruptive force he is. Even as a Defensive Tackle he might get 10 sacks.

Coach of the Year
Mike Singletary, San Francisco 49ers
Coach of the Year either goes to a coach who leads a team to a fantastic season (see: Bill Belichick of the Patriots in 2008) or a coach that brings a team back from the brink (see: Marvin Lewis of the Bengals last year). Singletary will take the 49ers to the peak of the NFC West for the first time since 2002, and for that he'll be rewarded with the label of Coach of the Year.

Week 1 Picks
Vikings @ Saints
Browns @ Buccaneers
Dolphins @ Bills
Bengals @ Patriots
Colts @ Texans
Broncos @ Jaguars
Falcons @ Steelers
Raiders @ Titans
Panthers @ Giants
Lions @ Bears
Cardinals @ Rams
Packers @ Eagles
49ers @ Seahawks
Cowboys @ Redskins
Ravens @ Jets
Chargers @ Chiefs