Friday 15 October 2010

Two Running Back Committees

In the NFL, teams operate many different schemes at Running Back. Some have a franchise runner, or a runner who is head and shoulders above every other Back on the roster, and he gets the vast majority of carries (see: Cedric Benson; Rashard Mendenhall). That franchise runner then has other Running Backs behind him that work in set scenarios, like a power runner on third and short, or a pass-catching back on third and long. This is the basis for many teams, especially New England and New Orleans. When healthy, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Pierre Thomas carry the load for their respective team, and they are relieved on third down by either their power runners (Fred Taylor; Julius Jones – who just signed for New Orleans this week) or their pass-catching backs (Kevin Faulk; Reggie Bush). This is their system, and it clearly works for them based on their records the past few seasons.

Other teams however, are blessed with having two Running Backs that seem to be fighting for the number one job on a week-to-week basis. That's not always the case, but my point is that some teams have two Running Backs that can seemingly get the job done. If one goes down due to injury, the other can come in and pick up from where he left off – with similar stat lines. It's arguable how many teams do operate this scheme, but in my opinion, I have identified eleven teams that could start any one of two Backs. As you're about to see, it's not always a blessing to have two equally talented guys in the backfield.

Arizona Cardinals – Beanie Wells & Tim Hightower
This is what I mean. They share carries more often and not, and the results are similarly bad. Hampered by having a no-good veteran (Anderson) and now a free-agent rookie (Hall) at Quarterback, the two Backs have combined for just 368 yards in five games. That's 73 yards per game, and they're averaging 4.3ypc (yards-per-carry) thanks to Hightower's 80-yard touchdown carry against Atlanta. Without that run, the two are averaging a horrible 3.42ypc.

Baltimore Ravens – Ray Rice & Willis McGahee
Sure, everyone knows Rice is the better back who can do it all, but McGahee is key to Baltimore offense. While Rice gets most of the carries, McGahee can be depended on if needed. The only problem with the tandem is that coach John Harbaugh seems to think McGahee is a good short-yardage runner, especially inside the five yard line, when he's not. He had a fluky season last year with red zone carries and has already proved that this season. At the moment though, the tandem work well in relief for Quarterback Joe Flacco, and should carry Baltimore to an AFC North crown.

Carolina Panthers – DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart
In my opinion, this is the best two Running Back committee in the entire league. But in the win-loss column, Carolina is 0-5. That can't be held responsible at their feet though. Both guys are seeing at least eight guys in the box when they get the ball because rookie Quarterback Jimmy Clausen seemingly can't do anything. He's young, he'll learn (hopefully, for Panthers fans), so it'll take time for the offense to come alive again. In the draft, if the Panthers can add some more depth to their offensive line and maybe a Tight End, their luck should change. Williams and Stewart are better than 0-5. Carolina shot down trade rumours for Williams this week, and it's the best thing they can do right now.

Dallas Cowboys – Marion Barber & Felix Jones
It's sad to see that through four games, Felix Jones has only thirty seven carries (averaging 5.3ypc). This is a guy that averaged 5.9ypc last season. Barber has only five more carries, averaging 3.4ypc. Is it not clear to the coaching staff that Jones should be starting AND seeing more of the ball? Tony Romo has attempted 174 passes this season. That's 137 more attempts than Jones. Everybody's coming up with ideas about why the Cowboys are 1-3. They say they've got the wrong personnel, or a bad defense, but it's not. It's the play-calling. People are idiotic if they think Jerry Jones is going to fire Wade Phillips in favour of offensive coordinator Jason Garrett. If Garrett can't see that Felix Jones isn't getting enough touches, he deserves to be fired more than anyone.

Indianapolis Colts – Joseph Addai & Donald Brown
All the Colts need are Running Backs that can make things that little bit easier for Peyton Manning. If the running game was abandoned in Indy, they would still be fine, after all Manning is arguably the best of the best right now. Thankfully, Addai and Brown play a prominent role in the passing game too, much to Manning's delight. In the Colts system, the two are interchangeable. Last season, the two combined for 62 receptions. That might only be less than 10% of Manning's passes, but with the number of active and capable receivers at his disposal, it shows how many little times he's had to check down into throwing to his Back. With the two Backs being still relatively young, Manning and the Colts should be fine for the next three seasons at least.

Kansas City Chiefs – Jamaal Charles & Thomas Jones
Through four games, the Chiefs are third in the NFL in rushing. They would probably be higher if Charles had more carries (50 to Jones's 60) as he has a staggering 6.5ypc compared to Jones's 3.9. Charles and Jones are akin to the Titans' Smash and Dash of 2008 (Chris Johnson and LenDale White). Jones is the power runner, Charles is the guy who gets into space, escapes blockers, and scored big, long touchdowns. The only hindrance to the Chiefs offense is Quarterback Matt Cassel, who is only completing 54% of his throws. If the Chiefs get improved play from him, Charles and Jones can lead this team to big things. It's not out of the question that they make the playoffs this season, but I would say next year is a must for the young franchise.

Miami Dolphins – Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams
From what I've seen of the Dolphins, these two are the exact same back. It's hard to distinguish many differences between them. They have similar running styles, except Williams seems to hit tacklers with a lot more force than Brown. I think what stops the Dolphins being more successful in the run game is their persistence to stick with the option (Wildcat) formation. When defenses see the wildcat, they almost always stuff the A gap (the middle) or do a full-house blitz. What carried the formation's success was the threat that Brown would throw the ball or hand it back to Chad Henne for a throw. In ordinary situations however, the Dolphins have a solid running attack with Brown and Williams, and they will likely get more of the ball against some good pass-defenses in the upcoming month (vs. Pittsburgh; at Cincinnati).

New York Giants – Ahmad Bradshaw & Brandon Jacobs
After Jacobs' benching, Bradshaw has thrived, becoming the fourth leading rusher in the league. If Bradshaw were to go down however, I don't think Jacobs would perform as well as he did in 2008 (the year before he was paid the big bucks). Jacobs will likely be on another team next season, so this tandem doesn't have long together. In the meantime, the Giants are steady with the two backs, but are seemingly going further towards the passing game becoming the primary attack. You can't argue against that either with the way Hakeem Nicks has started (33 receptions, 409 yards, 6 touchdowns).

New York Jets – LaDainian Tomlinson & Shonn Greene
The NFL's best rushing team so far this season, and it's mainly thanks to Tomlinson, and not Greene. Many (including myself) saw Tomlinson as the reliever, the guy who comes in on passing downs and then the fourth quarter to kill off the game, but Tomlinson has obviously worked like mad during the off-season to get to where he is now. He's at 5.7ypc with 435 yards through five games. That's unimaginable for a guy who San Diego unceremoniously dumped last season. Greene is the apparent heir to Tomlinson now, like he was last year to Thomas Jones, and the Jets should feel comfortable that he can carry that mantle based on his production this season (4.5ypc so far). Going against the Broncos and their 25th ranked rushing defense, Tomlinson and Greene should combine for a big day this Sunday.

Philadelphia Eagles – LeSean McCoy & Jerome Harrison
This week the Eagles traded Mike Bell to Cleveland for Jerome Harrison. I don't understand the Browns thinking at all. What has Harrison done to coach Eric Mangini, seriously? Harrison ran for 561 yards in the Browns final three games last season. That's 187ypg. That's insane! Cleveland have gone with Peyton Hillis though. Sure, he's started well, but how can Harrison NOT start the season as the number one back? The Eagles got rid of the unimpressive Bell, who struggled to do anything in the their system, and have replaced him with an obviously very capable back in Harrison. That now gives the Eagles two similar guys in the backfield. Harrison will likely get more carries in power running situations, but he's also a capable receiver. McCoy will still get more snaps, and he has seemingly improved by leaps and bounds this season, but this could be an interesting competition come the end of the season. Either way, it's a win-win situation for the Eagles, who now have four different Quarterback and Running Back match-ups thanks to the injury flip-flops of Kolb and Vick. Most Eagles fans should feel confident of a win with most of the match ups.

Seattle Seahawks – Marshawn Lynch & Justin Forsett
Another tandem yet to play with each other, at least in the pros, Lynch and Forsett actually formed the backfield of the California Golden Bears in college in 2005. Great friends off the field, hopefully their friendship will translate to great production for the Seahawks offense. Lord knows they need something to bolster their 29th ranked rushing attack. However, with Hasselbeck throwing more interceptions than touchdowns, it might be difficult for the pair to get anything going unless Charlie Whitehurst starts, and starts well.

Week 6 Picks
Falcons @ Eagles
Chiefs @ Texans
Saints @ Buccaneers
Dolphins @ Packers
Chargers @ Rams
Ravens @ Patriots
Lions @ Giants
Browns @ Steelers
Seahawks @ Bears
Jets @ Broncos
Raiders @ 49ers
Cowboys @ Vikings
Colts @ Redskins
Titans @ Jaguars

Last week: 9-5
Overall: 50-26

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