Andy Carroll and Moneyball

"It's every young Geordie lad's dream to be a Newcastle United number nine and I'm so lucky to be given that chance."
- Andy Carroll, 20th July 2010

Six months later, Carroll is now with Liverpool. For £35 million, the Reds snapped up the England international, and depending on who you hear it from, he either handed in a transfer request or was forced out. I'm sure you can guess which story is Carroll's.

This is the state of football these days. There is never a transfer fee which can't be paid. The clubs simply have too much money, and the players can't resist the high wages that come with the pricetag. In 1996, Alan Shearer showed his colours as he turned down the bright lights of the red half of Manchester to join his hometown club Newcastle United (albeit for a world record of £15 million at the time). Though Newcastle bid the most for him, I bet Manchester United could have paid Shearer more in wages.

How can Carroll leave his hometown club? He claims he was forced out by coach Alan Pardew, but Pardew insists Carroll handed in a transfer request after Newcastle rejected Liverpool's first bid of £30 million. If Carroll did that, he clearly has no loyalty, and it was all for the money. Dane Whitehouse, a boyhood fan of Sheffield United, played his entire career for the Blades during the 1990s. He was sought after by many Premier League clubs throughout his tenure and not once did he ever consider leaving. That's a player staying faithful, something if Carroll handed in a transfer request, is the polar opposite of.

If Carroll was so proud to be wearing the number nine shirt for Newcastle, how can any old club come in, wave some money at him, and pry him away so easily? Carroll is reportedly now earning £80k a week.

If Andy Carroll was forced out, then my humble apologies, but his chequered past and his demeanor off the field just makes me think he was all for this move.

"Alan Shearer was my idol as a young lad and who would have thought I'd be following in his footsteps?"
- Andy Carroll, in the same interview last July

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Now, for the Liverpool side of the story. What on earth drove them to pay £35 million for a player whose only promise is his potential? He's unproven in the Premier League. Carroll managed to score 19 goals in the Championship last season, and has tallied 11 this term, but it doesn't mean he's going to set Liverpool alight and propell them to 'another title.'

Liverpool's argument for the their efforts on transfer day is simple. They only spent £2 million. They sold Fernando Torres to Chelsea for £50 million and Ryan Babel to Hoffenheim for £5.8 million. They bought Carroll for £35 million and Uruguayan international Luis Suarez from Ajax for £22.7 million. When you look at it like that, money wise, it doesn't seem so bad. But that isn't what sticks out. What sticks out is the ludicrously high price they paid for Carroll.

Prices for English football players are always hiked up these days. Why? There probably isn't one answer. I'd say it's because every big club wants to own the 'next big British talent'. Look at the likes of Wayne Rooney and Theo Walcott, each snapped up after brief playing time for their first clubs (Everton and Southampton respectively). Manchester United paid £25.6 million for the eighteen year old Rooney, and Arsenal paid an eventual £9.1 million for the sixteen year old Walcott. This is the way it works, and it will continue for years to come. If the big clubs can't nurture their own kids in their academies, they'll pay the big bucks for someone elses.

This Carroll transfer strikes me as ridiculous for the most part because when Liverpool were taken over by Boston Red Sox owner John Henry, he installed his men to control the club using the teachings of Moneyball.

Moneyball is a term coined by Boston Red Sox front-office man Bill James, who argued that clubs should use sabermetrics to evaluate players (like on-base percentage), rather than through typical stats (like runs-batted-in and batting average). The complicated look at evaluating players meant the teams that generated little revenue like the Oakland Athletics could compete with the big spenders like the New York Yankees. How this can be extrapolated to football? I'm not sure. I'm sure there are in-depth statistics PAID EMPLOYEES at Liverpool can look into. Maybe stats of how many succesful headers a centre-half wins, or the number of crosses by a winger led to a scoring opportunity. There has to be some kind of stat these new guys at Liverpool are looking into.

So they sell Torres and Babel for a combined £55.8 million and buy Carroll and Suarez for £57.7 million. How can a proven Premier League striker like Torres be replaced by someone like Andy Carroll. Since his move from Atletico Madrid, Torres has notched 65 goals, scoring once every 121 minutes -- a Premier League record. Chelsea have paid a lot of money for a quality player, something I can't knock, but Liverpool in my opinion have overpaid by far for Carroll.

Couldn't they have found a cheaper option, perhaps abroad? A similar pricetag to the one they paid for Suarez? Apparently not.