The Final Four

Four teams remain, and the off-season is (sadly) on the horizon. This season has gone too fast for my liking. But it always does. When the Super Bowl is over, then comes possibly the most boring seven weeks of the year. No NFL and no baseball shift my focus to basketball and hockey, and they can only provide me with only so much excitement. The NFL is a different entity. Every game is different, for the better or worse, and there's always something to talk about (quiet, Panther fans).

Luckily for the NFL, the off-season pretty much only lasts two months. Soon enough you've got the college prospects holding their pro days, the draft, mini camps and training camps, and before you know it, the pre-season has come back around.

The only hitch this off-season is whether the NFL and NFLPA can formulate a new collective bargaining agreement so we don't have a lockout on our hands (what on earth will I do without the NFL for a year?)

Anyway, we have four teams left, so let's get to the games...

NFC Championship
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
They split their two divisional games this season, most recently with the Packers winning 10-3 to get into the playoffs in week 17 against a Bears team with nothing to play for. The media have spent most of the week talking about two things:

1) Soldier Field. We all know the field is ridiculously high-school-level and shouldn't be played on, but it's the NFL. These guys are pros and should be able to play on sand if called to. I think Aaron Rodgers could play on gravel and put up four touchdowns at this rate with his recent form (well, maybe not). The field has been said to be in 'better shape' this week, but you can't drastically improve a field in just over a week. If it's dry in Chicago tonight, there shouldn't really be a problem, but if the weather turns and the field becomes muddy, this could be a very defensive game.

2) Referee Terry McAulay. The first matchup between these two in week three was officiated by McAulay's crew, who called the Packers for 19 penalties (18 accepted). The media have yammered on all week about how this will impact the game, but it's a moot point. In the playoffs, head referees don't officiate with their usual crews. The best back judges, line judges, etc. get the nod and their rightful place in the playoffs. Terry McAulay didn't throw all 19 flags in that game, did he?

I think it's a difficult game to predict, obviously it's between two of the NFL's best teams, and games like this are always tough to pick. I think the Packers edge out the Bears. I just see the Packers offense and Jay Cutler's weekly brain fart to hamper the Bears. The Packers passing attack is vastly superior to the Bears' and Cutler will be throwing at Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams, who are playing like lockdown-corners right now.

Prediction: Packers 24 Bears 20

AFC Championship
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The Jets have been here before. They beat Pittsburgh in the snow in week 15. Two major factors in that game favoured the Jets considerably though:

1) Brad Smith's kickoff return touchdown to open the game. You can't bank on a KR TD every time you play the Steelers. Maybe in 2009, when their special teams unit gave up four KR TDs. Smith had no other impact in the game, rushing once for two yards being his only other contribution.

2) The absence of Troy Polamalu. With no Polamalu, there was a massive hole in the Steeler D. Mark Sanchez was sacked only once, something I expect the Steelers to do repeatedly tonight. The addition of Polamalu changes the game so much. Don't expect to see Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards team up for 14 catches and 140 yards again. Polamalu will be blitzing a lot in this game to begin with, and dropping back when the Steelers take the lead (which they will). Mark my words, Polamalu will have a huge impact on the outcome of this game.

So what do the Jets do to combat the Steelers? On offense they can't stick with the run-game, because eventually they will just end up going three-and-out constantly. The Steelers run defense gave up a staggering 62.8 yards per game, 27.3 yards less than the second-ranked Bears (the Jets were third with 90.9 ypg), and that's a wall that just isn't going to break. Dustin Keller might have to take the game on his shoulders and go up and get some balls he might not want to -- when Polamalu could be gearing up to knock his head off.

On defense, the alignment of all-world cornerback Darrelle Revis is an issue. Where do you play him? In week 15, Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders combined for 180 yards, while Revis, who was covering Hines Ward, had two catches for 34 yards. I don't see Ward as the main threat in this game. I'd line up Antonio Cromartie with Ward, and have Revis playing man on Mike Wallace. Drop safety Brodney Pool to shadow Ward/Sanders and have Eric Smith blitzing regularly. Then again, I'm not Rex Ryan, and he could surprise us with his selections.

I think this game comes down to who can sack the other team's quarterback the most, and with Troy Polamalu back on board, I can't pick against Pittsburgh.

Prediction: Jets 13 Steelers 17

Here's a reminder of what tonight is all about, courtesy of NFL.com

Divisional Round is Literal This Year

This round of the NFL playoffs is not your normal divisional escapade. Of the four matchups, we have two bitter rivalries between same-division foes (BAL-PIT, NYJ-NE), the third features the two QBs of the future (GB-ATL), and the fourth features one of the nastiest defenses in the league (SEA-CHI).

The games, in order of awesomeness.

1. Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The nastiest game of the weekend is this one right here, though I'm sure Hines Ward will still be smiling at the end of it. The key to this game of course, is to score. But it's so important here, especially for the Ravens to get an early lead. I'm basing this on the differences between all-pro safeties Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu. If the Ravens can get a lead, they can expect to see Polamalu in the box more often -- and on some occasions blitzing. Now in the second game between these two, Polamalu sacked Joe Flacco, forcing a turnover, and three plays later the Steelers took the lead for good. Now, if the Ravens get the lead here, you have to think they will keep extra blockers in to combat the pass-rush of Polamalu specifically, either that, or offensive coordinator Cam Cameron needs to draw up plenty of two-step and three-step drop passes for Flacco so he can get rid of the ball as soon as possible. If he does neither, you can expect the same outcome, a Steelers win.

On the other side of the ball, if the Ravens do in fact have a lead, you can expect Ed Reed to play center field. Reed doesn't go after the QB like Polamalu does -- he watches. One errant pass, one lack of disregard, one momentary lapse of concentration by Ben Roethlisberger, and the ball will land in Reed's lap. The play of these two safeties will likely shape the game.

Prediction: Ravens 13 Steelers 16

2. Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons host a playoff game for the first time since 2004, and it couldn't come against a worse opponent. Atlanta must have been praying for an Eagles victory last week, handing them the Seahawks, but it wasn't to be. I honestly have no idea who's gonna win this. The key man for the Falcons is Matt Ryan. A lot is resting on his shoulders, because the Packers aren't just any other team. Dom Capers is gonna throw plenty of confusing looks at him. The key to the game is converting third downs. When Ryan looks to his typical third-down target in Tony Gonzalez, he might have to look elsewhere as the all-pro Tight End will likely be covered by Charles Woodson. On those plays, Tramon Williams will be on Roddy White. So taking away his top two targets (like last week with the Eagles -- taking away DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin), it's important that Ryan looks to his lesser guys. Players like Harry Douglas, Mike Jenkins, Brian Finneran and Eric Weems need to be open for the Falcons to win this.

As for the Packers, the key is to improve the run-game with James Starks and utilise the slot-game in passing downs. Why the slot-game? Nickel corner back Brian Williams is doubtful for Atlanta, and the slot-receivers will be going against the inexperienced Chris Owens. Starks big game last week can be credited in part to the Eagles, who had no game-plan for a Packers running back to be actually competent (and why should they have been? Rodgers led the team in rushing in multiple games this season.) The Eagles should have adjusted, and they did somewhat, but Starks' 23 attempts for 123 yards is still impressive. With a week of watching the film of that game, Falcons coach Mike Smith will have plenty to work with, considering Starks rushed only 29 times all season prior to last week. With the Packers new three-headed running formation, the Eagles film will be all that he needs.

Prediction: Packers 30 Falcons 27

3. New York Jets @ New England Patriots
It's easily the most hyped game of the week, and not just because of Antonio Cromartie's choice words about Tom Brady, but it's not going to be competitive. Don't get me wrong, I don't expect the Patriots drop 45 points on them like they did in week 13, but I don't see it being close either. The key man for the Patriots is of course Tom Brady. He's easily the MVP this season, and he's led New England into a new era, an era of balance. Not one skill player sticks out. But all together, they're by far the most dangerous team in the league. If Brady plays half as well as he did in week 13, the Patriots win this handily.

With the Jets, it's a lot more complicated. They need the run-pass balance they had last week against the Colts. LaDainian Tomlinson was a revelation last week, with an efficient 82 yards on 16 carries (and two scores). That 5.1 yards-per-carry is incredibly important in a game like this. The Jets have to play keep-away from the Brady Bunch, and not stray from it. Then again, it's likely the Patriots will jump out to an early lead, and the Jets won't be able to afford to just run the ball, so it could be a tough day for Mr. Mark Sanchez. Santonio Holmes needs to earn his paycheck in this game (for once).

Prediction: Jets 17 Patriots 31

4. Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears
The Seahawks had no chance to win last week, but they did. The Seahawks have no chance to win this week, and they won't. The Bears defense isn't as soft as the Saints. the Front-7 features absolute beasts like Julius Peppers, Tommy Harris, Israel Idonije, Lance Briggs, and of course Brian Urlacher. Don't expect to see Marshawn Lynch stiff-arming any of those guys. With that front-7, the Seahawks will be throwing alot, right into a strict cover-2 defense that will pray upon Matthew Hasslebeck. I can't see how Seattle scores many points in this game, and against this defense.

The hope for Seattle is probably their own defense and special teams. They have one of the best special team units in the league (despite giving up a punt-return touchdown to Devin Hester earlier this season) and should be able to pin Jay Cutler and the Bears offense deep in their own territory. The Seahawk defense needs to do what any other defense would do against the Bears. Blitz. Blitz like mad. When Cutler is rattled, we all know what happens. He throws interceptions, and takes way too many sacks. Obviously, sometimes he can't help it, he is behind a tremendously bad offensive line, but some blame has to be taken on his part.

Prediction: Seahawks 13 Bears 24

Media: Hit the Showers

After watching last night's BCS Title game, all I could think was "GET OUT OF THE WAY." Who was I talking to? The players? No. The coaches? No. They both had their right to be on the field to celebrate/congratulate.

I'm talking to the media.

I'm fine with cameramen getting on the field, showing the viewers at home what the people in attendance can see. That's fine. What isn't fine is the hoard of media members who immediately swarmed the field, grabbing at coaches and players so they could get their soundbytes. Oregon coach Chip Kelly and Auburn coach Gene Chizik had to fight through photographers and ESPNers just to shake hands and have a friendly word after the Auburn Tigers 22-19 National Championship victory in Arizona. It was pathetic.

Seconds later, an audible "CAM! CAM! CAM!" was heard -- an interviewer vying for Auburn Quarterback Cam Newton's attention. Newton responded by brushing the guy off as he went to talk with Oregon Quarterback Darron Thomas.

I understand that the media need to do their job. The photographers need their front page snap. The interviewers of the tv and radio stations need their soundbytes. But they should have to wait. Let the people who actually participated in the game do their business. Let the losers congratulate the winners, and vice-versa. We have to remember, it's just a game. Sure, a lot of money is made on this particular game, just like any other major sporting final, but give the participants some respect.

Can you imagine being Cam Newton last night? He's just won a National Championship, the newest best-thing-ever for him (after the Heisman trophy win), he wants to talk with Darron Thomas, Chip Kelly, etc. and he has to fight his way through photographers and interviewers just to do so. Sure enough, thirty seconds later, he was giving a live interview on ESPN.

It seems American fotball is used to this though. Maybe it's because the sidelines are blanketed by an army of media to begin with. It's easy to have an invasion when there's a lack of barriers to get through. Basketball suffers from the same too. I think that's what makes the celebrations at the end of the Stanley Cup and the World Series so great.

When the buzzer sounds at the end of the Stanley Cup, and the final out is made of a World Series, all you can see is the players celebrating with one another. That's perfect in my opinion. Let the players celebrate with each other, not with Johnny Microphone from Radio GTFO. My favourite American sports memory is the Philadelphia Phillies winning the World Series in 2008. After Brad Lidge struck out the final Tampa Bay batter, catcher Carlos Ruiz jumped into his arms and then the rest of the players piled on top of each other as fireworks lit up the sky. No media, no clutter -- Just pure elation of the players on the field, and the fans in the stands. Beautiful.

Looking across seas, you would think soccer would suffer the same fate of American football. But it doesn't. Watch the end of any major final. The FA Cup, the Champions League, the World Cup -- it just doesn't happen. When Spain defeated Holland in the World Cup final, the only people to run on the field at the end of the game were the rest of the Spanish squad and their coaches.

The bottom line is, sports are sports. They're recreational games. They make alot of money and are watched by millions, but I think sometimes the main point of the game gets lost in the hype. There will always be a winner and always be a loser, so let the winners celebrate their victory, and let the losers congratulate them.

Johnny Microphone can get his soundbyte in five minutes.

Wildcard Weekend

It's playoffs time.

AFC
Jets @ Colts
A repeat of last year's AFC Championship game, Jets coach Rex Ryan will be looking to settle the score. In that game, the Jets led 17-6, before Manning fired three touchdown passes and the Colts ran out 30-17 winners. As expected in that game, Darrelle Revis shut down Reggie Wayne (3rec, 55yds) but it didn't matter as Garcon and Collie combined for 18 catches, 274 yards and two touchdowns. With Antonio Cromartie added to the mix this season, and likely to be shadowing Garcon in this game, it leaves the Colts with a hole to fill. A hole named Austin Collie. Collie went on IR a couple of weeks ago, meaning backups Jacob Tamme and Blair White are going to have to shine for the Colts to win here.

The key to the Jets winning this game is simple – play keep-away from Manning. The Jets need to run the ball with LT, Greene and McKnight against the Colts porous run defense if they're gonna stand a chance of advancing to the divisional round. You can't expect Sanchez to lead the Jets, not after the way he's collapsed this season (save for the Pittsburgh game).

Prediction: Jets 17 Colts 24

Ravens @ Chiefs
With the way the Chiefs crashed at home to the Raiders last week, it's gonna be hard to install confidence in their fans for this match-up. If any confidence is going to surface, it's through Jamaal Charles and the resurgence of a connection between Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe. The only trouble is, Ed Reed has been playing out of his skin lately (four interceptions in two games) and the Ravens D will be double covering Bowe. The hope for the Chiefs runs through Jamaal Charles breaking off big gains and Tony Moeaki playing like Tony Gonzalez (which he's accomplished at times this year).

I don't see any reason why the Ravens shouldn't win this game. Anquan Boldin will be covered by Brandon Flowers with Eric Berry shadowing behind, but it won't matter. The Ravens have too many weapons – Rice, Heap and Mason being the stand-outs in my opinion for this game.

Prediction: Ravens 31 Chiefs 21

NFC
Saints @ Seahawks
The Seahawks are the first team in NFL history to reach the playoffs with a losing record (7-9), which just shows how bad the NFC West is. On the flip side, there's the Saints (11-5), who look unbeatable right now. Reggie Bush is back and he and Brees have connected 21 times in the last four games, but that's not the big story here, that would be what the Saints are going to do on the ground. Pierre Thomas just landed on IR and Chris Ivory is done for the year, leaving the Saints backfield being run by Bush, Julius Jones and the newest addition, Joique Bell. While the backfield is beat up, just like the Colts has been this season, it likely won't matter. No one is more accurate than Brees (68.1% pass completion this season) and he's one of a small group of QBs who can operate with no run-game.

The Seahawks need a prayer. Aside from their opening drive against the Rams in the win-and-in game last Sunday (six plays, 87 yards, touchdown) they were terrible. Their hope in this game comes in playing keep-away with Justin Forsett, and not Lynch. Forsett is a much better option than Lynch, hell, even Leon Washington is a better option. Speaking of Washington, his impact in the return game will be huge if he can consistently give the Hawks good field position.

Prediction: Saints 38 Seahawks 17

Packers @ Eagles
Along with Colts-Jets, arguably the marquee game of the week. Everybody's talking about how the Packers will win based on the performance of the Vikings' Antoine Winfield two weeks ago. Winfield was sent on corner-blitzes many times against the Eagles, successfully sacking Michael Vick twice, with one resulting in a forced fumble being returned for a touchdown. Like many have said, this is the blueprint for the Packers success here. The Packers corner-blitz a lot with Charles Woodson, but it's not a foregone conclusion that his blitzes will quieten Vick. After all, it was on corner-blitzes that Vick ripped off gains of 35 and 33 against the Giants in week 15. If any defensive coordinator is gonna have a shot at shutting Vick down, stopping him from scrambling for these massive gains, it's Dom Capers. When the Eagles met the Packers in week one, and Kevin Kolb went down with a concussion, Vick stepped in and promptly ran for 103 yards on 11 carries. It's hard for a team to prepare for a running Quarterback like Vick, nevermind adjust to one within a game. With preparation, I expect the Packers to be able to stop Vick, maybe even using Clay Matthews as a spy. If he isn't a spy, I imagine he'll blitz on 90% of his snaps.

A plus for the Packers is their secondary. Tramon Williams and Charles Woodson have played expertly this season, and Williams' Pro Bowl snub is just ridiculous. With those two covering DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, it forces guys like Brent Celek and Jason Avant to step up. LeSean McCoy is my x-factor for the Eagles however. Last week, Matt Forte ripped off big gains on the Packers D on runs around right-tackle and in the screen game (8 rec, 60 yards). The Eagles maybe the best team that play the screen game in the NFL.

On the other side of the ball, Aaron Rodgers will likely have a massive game. Asante Samuel is back, and will cover Greg Jennings, but the rest of the Eagles secondary is beat up and struggling to cover anyone. Donald Driver and James Jones will shine in this game.

Prediction: Packers 34 Eagles 31

Predictions
Back in early September, I attempted an experiment where I ranked each team by evaluating each position, their coaching and their schedule. Only six of the top ten made the playoffs (Saints, Jets, Colts, Ravens, Steelers, Patriots). I whiffed on the Chiefs (23) by those evaluations, but the Seahawks ranking (28) is probably still accurate.

As for my predictions, I perfectly predicted the standings in only the AFC East but wasn't too far out in many of the records. I missed big on the Cowboys (11-5), 49ers (11-5) and Chiefs (5-11).

Quick Thoughts on Changes
- The Texans hired Wade Phillips as defensive coordinator. Houston will move to a 3-4 and Mario Williams will get AT LEAST 14 sacks next season. He'll take the DeMarcus Ware beast role.

- The Browns fired Eric Mangini. GM Mike Holmgren shouldn't take the job himself, he should know better after he admitted to being burnt out when he left the Seahawks. I'd be shocked if they don't hire someone on agent Bob LaMonte's client list (Holmgren is also on there).

- The Titans are dumping QB Vince Young in favour of coach Jeff Fisher. A surprising move, considering Titans owner Bud Adams 'really liked' Young. What's next for the Titans at the QB position then? The Titans have the eighth pick in the draft, and could go with a rookie like Jake Locker or Cam Newton, or pick up a veteran FA like Donovan McNabb. Matt Leinart could be a dark horse.

- Everyone is talking about Jim Harbaugh. The Stanford coach is destined to earn the big bucks of the NFL, and the Dolphins have emerged as favourites. Most people (Panthers fans) are clamouring for a Harbaugh and QB Andrew Luck reunion (Luck is the projected number one overall pick if he declares for the draft), but I can see Harbaugh taking more money to go to Miami.

- The Raiders fired Tom Cable. A baffling decision considering the Raiders turnaround this season (6-0 vs. AFC West), but I guess it's just Al (Davis) being Al. Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is the top candidate.

- The Vikings made interim Head Coach Leslie Frazier the permanent selection. Definitely the right decision.

Week 17 is Here.

This NFL season has gone by way too quickly. It doesn't seem like we've been watching every Sunday since early September. It's just not fair. Soon enough, the playoffs will blow by and we'll be left with the worst six weeks of the year until baseball starts again. In a few days I'll preview the NFL playoffs, and look out how my predictions from the start of the season fared. To the picks!

Week 17 Picks
Dolphins @ Patriots
Patriots will bench Brady at the half and up 10, but the Dolphins SHOULD beat the Patriots backups... not that it's a lock or anything. Chad Henne has to perform well here to get a shot at starting next season.

Bills @ Jets
Bills are seeing what they have with Brian Brohm, whilst the Jets are sitting some key starters for the playoffs. However, Matt Sanchez isn't among the inactives, so I have to go with the Jets.

Bengals @ Ravens
The Ravens often struggle with Cincy, but this is Carson Palmer without T.O., Ochocinco (neither mattered last week) and Jermaine Gresham (who did). The Ravens need the win to stand a chance at getting a first round bye, so there's my pick sorted. Motivation.

Steelers @ Browns
Big Ben owns Ohio again, and they just need to win this to achieve a bye.

Raiders @ Chiefs
No McFadden (so barely a run game) and no Richard Seymour (so the Chiefs will stampede all over the Raiders D) make this an easy decision. Saying that, the Chiefs should take out their starters as early as they can as they likely face the Jets in the playoffs.

Vikings @ Lions
Complete toss up.

Panthers @ Falcons
Falcons win and they get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Also, the Panthers are terrible. #breakingnews

Buccaneers @ Saints
The Saints are going without Thomas, Colston and Shockey, but they can be just as effective with Ivory, Moore and Graham filling in for them. I think it'll be close, but the Saints should win here.

Jaguars @ Texans
Due to injuries, Trent Edwards and Rashard Jennings will lead the Jags today against the worst defense in the league. I'd go Jacksonville had it been David Garrard and MJD, but I'll take the explosive Texans offense to rout the Jags.

Cowboys @ Eagles
Stephen McGee vs. Kevin Kolb.

Giants @ Redskins
This could be an upset for the Redskins, but the Giants have a wildcard spot to play for. They have to respond to the horrible defeats they've suffered in the past two weeks.

Chargers @ Broncos
A pissed off Philip Rivers vs. a gleeful Tim Tebow. Anger will win.

Cardinals @ 49ers
Oh come on. I feel sorry for fans of each. 49ers win.

Bears @ Packers
Even though Bears coach Lovie Smith has talked up how much it means to beat Green Bay, I guarentee Jay Cutler doesn't reach the fourth quarter.

Titans @ Colts
It's a foregone conclusion.

Last week: 10-6
Overall: 157-83