Week 6 and 7 in the NFL

Quick Week 6 Thoughts

- The Romo injury is big for Dallas. But, their season was already over. Cowboys fans can look forward to Jon Kitna (I doubt they'll be as excited as Ron Jaworski though), and probably a top ten pick in next year's draft.

- Packers Left Tackle Chad Clifton really impressed me this week. He went one-on-one with Jared Allen on every snap and never looked to be in trouble. A welcome sigh of relief for Packers Quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who was sacked seven-and-a-half times by Allen last season.

- Kenny Britt abused Ellis Hobbs last Sunday. Despite being benched for the first quarter due to a scuffle in a nightclub last week, Britt had a career day, catching seven balls for 225 yards and three touchdowns. Though pundits are saying Britt is 'an elite receiver' now, I have to disagree. He beat up the unreliable Hobbs and a rookie Safety in Nate Allen. That's not very impressive. Sure, the numbers speak for themselves, but the opponent has to be evaluated. If he's elite, he should be going against the top cornerbacks and doing well against them.

- Brad Childress probably shouldn't have called out Brett Favre about his play. Yes, he played badly, but Favre has the keys to the Vikings bandwagon. If he doesn't play Sunday, the Vikes are left with Tarvaris Jackson, and that's never good.

Week 7
On to week seven, looking in-depth at the top four games.

Minnesota Vikings @ New England Patriots
Randy Moss returns to New England; slew of writers predict career day for him. It would be sod's law for Moss to go into “beast mode” against his former team, but I just can't see it. I don't think he'll do poorly, of course not, not against THAT secondary, but a career day? C'mon man. Moss's production lies solely on Brett Favre being healthy, because who knows how T-Jax will play for the first time in seemingly years and years. I think it'll be close, but I'm with the Patriots. Coach Belichick is starting to turn the young defense and it's hard to pick against Brady, who has won his last twenty-three games at Foxboro. One thing to note however, Favre's last appearance against the Patriots in 2008 – 26 for 33, 258 yards, 2 touchdowns, with a 119.4 Passer Rating.
Prediction: Vikings 28 Patriots 31

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saints
This could be completely one-sided if the Saints don't begin to pick up their play of 2009. What has happened? Are Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush that pivotal to the offense? Drew Brees threw three interceptions last week (two for touchdowns) against the lowly Browns. How many will he throw Troy Polamalu's way? The good news for the Saints is that Steelers DE Aaron Smith is out, and he's a massive piece to their defensive line. In the last three seasons, Ben Roethlisberger is 2-0 in dome games, but this is neither Detroit nor St. Louis. Brees hasn't faced Ben since 2006, when the Steelers came out 38-31 winners, but Brees has come a long way since then. He's cemented his place amongst the top tier of Quarterbacks, but to beat the Steelers he's going to have to play like one, and not like he has been recently (throwing ten interceptions this season already after he had eleven all last year).
Prediction: Steelers 27 Saints 28

Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets
It's hard to know what to expect in this game. The Packers are decimated by injury, but are still getting it done. Meanwhile, the Jets are coming off the bye, meaning coach Rex Ryan will have schemed like a mad-man to stop Aaron Rodgers. The Packers run-defense worries me, and with LT playing the way he is, he could be the deciding factor in this game. Sanchez's turnover ratio is a lot better this season, he's thrown only two interceptions in 177 pass attempts. I think the Jets force enough turnovers to win this game, as long as Sanchez doesn't start throwing in Charles Woodson's direction.
Prediction: Packers 27 Jets 30

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
I've seen writers split on this game, and it's easy to see why. The Texans ran all over the Colts in week one (257 yards rushing), yet Peyton Manning can and has, thrown all over Houston's thirty-second ranked defense (463 yards). I think it all comes down to how the Texans get to Manning. The defensive line is their strong point, and Manning won't be able to get those quick throws off to the injured Dallas Clark. Clark is a big loss, but Manning could probably beat the Texans with high-school receivers. Some unlikely names are going to come up big on Monday night, the likes of Jacob Tamme, Blair White and Brody Eldridge to name a few. This shouldn't be too competitive.
Prediction: Texans 27 Colts 37

Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers - @ Wembley Stadium
Once again, the UK plays host to probably the worst game possible. Besides, there shouldn't even be any games in the UK. It's a stupid idea that only leads to British pundits clamouring for a British franchise. Simply put, it's never going to happen.
Prediction: Broncos 23 49ers 14

Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals better hope CB Jonathan Joseph is back. Matt Ryan and Roddy White killed their secondary last week, and now Adam Jones is on IR too. This could be a big day for Chad Henne.
Prediction: Dolphins 23 Bengals 20

Washington Redskins @ Detroit Lions
Matt Stafford is back in at Quarterback after his lengthy injury. I think this'll be an ugly game. It's two teams that are struggling offensively and succumb to turnovers often, and it will likely be decided because of turnovers. DeAngelo Hall will not have four interceptions this week.
Prediction: Redskins 17 Lions 14

Carolina Panthers @ St. Louis Rams
After the Rams fizzled out last week at the Bucs, it's hard to pick against a Panthers team that may be starting to turn it around after giving Matt Moore a deserved second chance.
Prediction: Panthers 23 Rams 20

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
The surprisingly dominant Chiefs won't slip up at home to the Bills, even though Buffalo forced the mighty Ravens into overtime. Jones and Charles will lead the Chiefs on the ground, and Cassel will do just enough through the air. I'm becoming a fan of Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick though, who seems to play every snap like it's fourth down.
Prediction: Bills 13 Chiefs 30

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Dallas Cowboys
Jon Kitna replaces the injured Tony Romo. No one notices because it's Jacksonville.
Prediction: Jaguars 13 Cowboys 27

Tennessee Titans @ San Diego Chargers
A tough game to pick. The Titans are rolling at the moment, but I think the Chargers are due a win. If Marc Mariani has any impact on special teams for the Titans however, Tennessee wins easily. Antonio Gates should have a big day (74 yards and a touchdown in his last appearance against the Titans).
Prediction: Titans 17 Chargers 28

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Arizona Cardinals
Ugh. This will be ugly. I have no idea. A tie is just as likely.
Prediction: Buccaneers 13 Cardinals 14

Seattle Seahawks @ Oakland Raiders
Despite the Raiders dropping fifty-nine on Denver last week, everyone knows they're not as good as the scoreboard read. This has field goal battle written all over it.
Prediction: Seahawks 18 Raiders 13

Last week: 7-7
Overall: 68-36

Rookie Watch

Top 15 Most Impressive Rookies So Far

1. Sam Bradford (QB) – St. Louis Rams – Draft Position: #1
The Rams won one game last season. They have three wins from six games already this season, and it's got a lot to do with Bradford. He's not tearing through opposing defenses, but he's getting the job done. With progression throughout the year he should be able to lead the Rams to at least two or three more wins. One man who has to be delighted to have Bradford is Running Back Steven Jackson, who's actually seeing less guys in the box (last year when asked if he kept seeing eight guys in the box, he said, "eight? I see nine.") and is being given the space to have big games on the ground. Whilst Bradford's numbers aren't spectacular, two things have to be taken into perspective. One, he is a rookie, and two, he's throwing to arguably the worst receiving corps in the league due to injuries to Mark Clayton and Donnie Avery. Rookie Danario Alexander is likely to be Bradford's number one target for the remainder of the season.

2. Ndamukong Suh (DT) – Detroit Lions – Draft Position: #2
Suh currently leads the league in sacks by Defensive Tackles with four and a half. Though the Lions rank 28th in rush defense, they rank 19th in pass defense after being dead last in 2009. This is due to the arrivals of Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch. Suh is blowing up interior Offensive Lines with twenty one combined tackles, four and a half sacks, and even an interception. Suh will be salivating for upcoming games against Buffalo and Chicago with their pitiful offensive lines.

3. Nate Allen (FS) – Philadelphia Eagles – Draft Position: #37
Although he won the starting job by default due to injury to free agent acquisition Marlin Jackson, Allen is proving he belongs in the starting lineup. Allen leads all rookies with three interceptions and all Free Safetys with nine passes defended. The Eagles pass defense has improved from 17th to 9th this season, all the while holding opposing Quarterbacks to an NFL worst 47.3 rating (per ESPN's stats and info blog), not bad for a secondary that has two other rookies getting plenty of playing time in Kurt Coleman and Trevard Lindley. I'm not saying Allen is the second coming of Brian Dawkins, but no Eagles rookie has had three picks since him in 1996.

4. Trent Williams (LT) – Washington Redskins – Draft Position: #4
Williams is playing up to his draft position so far in Washington. In his last game against the Colts and more importantly, Dwight Freeney, he kept Donovan McNabb upright with a clean uniform from start to finish. This isn't a knock on Freeney, who I still regard to be a top five pass-rusher, but a massive praise for Williams. Up next for Williams? The Bears' Julius Peppers.

5. Perrish Cox (CB) – Denver Broncos – Draft Position: #137
He might be playing alongside veterans Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins, but Cox is proving his worth. He only has one interception, but his ten passes defended at this stage of the season is remarkable for any player. He's set to be targeted a lot due to the presence of the aforementioned veterans, but he's shown that he can manage the workload. The Broncos pass defense is worse this season, but this is most likely due to the injuries to the Defensive Line (Elvis Dumervil), the secondary (Brian Dawkins), and of course the changing of Defensive Co-ordinator (from Mike Nolan to Don Martindale).

6. Alterraun Verner (CB) – Tennessee Titans – Draft Position: #104
Verner is playing great, simply put. He has nine passes defended and two interceptions, and is playing like a veteran and nothing like a twenty-one year old coming out of UCLA. It will be interesting to see how Peyton Manning attacks him this season, what with the rest of the Titans defense playing well too.

7.Chris Ivory (RB) – New Orleans Saints – Draft Position: Undrafted
With Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush out, the Saints running game has been left to Chris Ivory -- Tiffin University's finest, Ladell Betts and Julius Jones. Ivory has taken Thomas' role of the primary first and second down runner, and he has shined. Averaging 6.3 yards a carry, it will be hard for Saints coach Sean Payton to take him out of the lineup. When healthy, I see Ivory sharing carries with Thomas, and Bush reprising his third down role. Of course the flip side of the coin is that any back should produce good numbers when they have Drew Brees to support them, but Ivory has shown flashes of dominance.

8. Earl Thomas (FS) – Seattle Seahawks – Draft Position: #14
While the Seahawks pass defense is still struggling, giving up 290 yards per game, Thomas has been instrumental in being a right-place-right-time guy for Seattle. He has three interceptions and six passes defended, and should have a good next couple of weeks against Arizona's Max Hall and whoever Oakland throw under center. His biggest game so far was the Hawks 27-20 win over the Chargers, where he picked off Philip Rivers twice.

9. Jahvid Best (RB) – Detroit Lions – Draft Position: #30
Best has started okay in the run game, but has excelled in the passing game. His future looks to be as a Reggie Bush put-him-anywhere kind of player so far. He's averaging 3.2 yards per carry, which needs to be improved if he's going to keep getting a high amount of carries, but he has 31 receptions for 285 yards already this season. If he keeps it up, he's looking at catching 82 balls for 760 yards. I see him being more like Ray Rice than Bush however, but he'll have to bulk up from 199lbs to be able to play like Rice.

10. Mike Williams (WR) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Draft Position: #101
The fourth rounder out of Syracuse opened the season as the team's number one receiver, and he's done about as good as a rookie receiver can in the circumstances. He leads all rookie Wide Receivers in receptions (23), yards (283) and touchdowns (3). The only knock against him is he's fumbled twice.

11. Tony Moeaki (TE) – Kansas City Chiefs – Draft Position: #93
Moeaki's job is to replace Tony Gonzalez essentially, but no one is expecting him to play like him. So far, he's doing enough to hold down the starting job. In a running offense, he's managed eighteen receptions, 194 yards and 2 touchdowns, and in the process he's starting to become Matt Cassel's safety blanket.

12. Aaron Hernandez (TE) – New England Patriots – Draft Position: #113
He's outplaying fellow rookie Tight End Rob Gronkowski, who was drafted 71 places ahead of him, and has become the down field threat for the Patriots even before they traded away Randy Moss. He leads all rookies in receiving yards with 301, and is averaging 13.7 yards per catch (4th amongst all Tight Ends, minimum 15 receptions).

13. T.J. Ward (SS) – Cleveland Browns – Draft Position: #38
Despite playing on a bad defense, Ward has racked up 54 tackles, tied for eight in the NFL.

14. Russell Okung (OT) – Seattle Seahawks – Draft Position: #6
Okung has only started two games, but he's looked impressive so far. He shut down Julius Peppers this past Sunday, which is enough to make this list for sure.

15. Dexter McCluster (RB/WR/KR) – Kansas City Chiefs – Draft Position: #36
McCluster burst onto the scene in the Chiefs opening game against the Chargers, taking a punt 94 yards to the house. Since then, he's largely been used on third-down, catching 10 balls for 106 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Honourable Mention
Jermaine Gresham (TE) – Cincinnati Bengals – Draft Position: #21
The Bengals offense has struggled at times despite Carson Palmer having Cedric Benson, Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens at his disposal. Meanwhile, Gresham has excelled in the intermediate passing game. While Ochocinco and Owens are stretching the field, Palmer is getting short throws off to Gresham (7.2 yards per catch), making him an important piece to their offense.

On the Cusp: Danario Alexander, Eric Berry, Dez Bryant, Joe Haden, Marc Mariani, Colt McCoy, Koa Misi.

Five First Rounders Who Need to Improve

1. Kareem Jackson (CB) – Houston Texans
He may have 6 passes defended and an interception. But, c'mon man. The Texans are on pace for surely a record setting turgid pass defense. They're giving up 306 yards to opposing Quarterbacks, and twenty seven points per game. Jackson might be the only bright spark in their secondary, but he needs to shine brighter to have any sort of impact this season.

2. Ryan Mathews (RB) – San Diego Chargers
He leads all rookies with 282 yards, but he should have so much more. If he can stay healthy, he should pass the 1,000 yard mark.

3. Gerald McCoy (DT) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs are 31st in run defense. McCoy needs to change that, starting with stopping the Rams' Steven Jackson this Sunday.

4. Devin McCourty (CB) – New England Patriots
The Patriots 29th ranked pass defense and their young secondary need to start producing. They began their progress this past Sunday, holding the Ravens to twenty points, and a banged up Chargers team should boost their spirits this week.

5. Kyle Wilson (CB) – New York Jets
Wilson's playing with All-Pro Darrelle Revis, and a good comeback player in Antonio Cromartie, so he's been targeted (and abused) regularly this season. Wilson needs to start playing a helluva lot better soon, especially if Revis' hammy continues to hinder his play.

Rookie Who Likely Has Chronic Depression
C.J. Spiller (RB) - Buffalo Bills
It's gonna be a tough few years for Spiller most likely. Playing for Buffalo isn't easy, especially when the rest of the AFC East is in a dogfight for the number one spot. At least he signed a big contract though.

Updated Awards Predictions
Offensive Rookie of the Year – Sam Bradford (QB) – St. Louis Rams
Defensive Rookie of the Year – Ndamukong Suh (DT) – Detroit Lions

Week 7 Picks
Browns @ Saints
Jaguars @ Chiefs
Redskins @ Bears
Steelers @ Dolphins
Bengals @ Falcons
Rams @ Buccaneers
Bills @ Ravens
49ers @ Panthers
Eagles @ Titans
Cardinals @ Seahawks
Raiders @ Broncos
Patriots @ Chargers
Vikings @ Packers
Giants @ Cowboys

Last week: 11-3
Overall: 61-29

And finally...

Two Running Back Committees

In the NFL, teams operate many different schemes at Running Back. Some have a franchise runner, or a runner who is head and shoulders above every other Back on the roster, and he gets the vast majority of carries (see: Cedric Benson; Rashard Mendenhall). That franchise runner then has other Running Backs behind him that work in set scenarios, like a power runner on third and short, or a pass-catching back on third and long. This is the basis for many teams, especially New England and New Orleans. When healthy, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Pierre Thomas carry the load for their respective team, and they are relieved on third down by either their power runners (Fred Taylor; Julius Jones – who just signed for New Orleans this week) or their pass-catching backs (Kevin Faulk; Reggie Bush). This is their system, and it clearly works for them based on their records the past few seasons.

Other teams however, are blessed with having two Running Backs that seem to be fighting for the number one job on a week-to-week basis. That's not always the case, but my point is that some teams have two Running Backs that can seemingly get the job done. If one goes down due to injury, the other can come in and pick up from where he left off – with similar stat lines. It's arguable how many teams do operate this scheme, but in my opinion, I have identified eleven teams that could start any one of two Backs. As you're about to see, it's not always a blessing to have two equally talented guys in the backfield.

Arizona Cardinals – Beanie Wells & Tim Hightower
This is what I mean. They share carries more often and not, and the results are similarly bad. Hampered by having a no-good veteran (Anderson) and now a free-agent rookie (Hall) at Quarterback, the two Backs have combined for just 368 yards in five games. That's 73 yards per game, and they're averaging 4.3ypc (yards-per-carry) thanks to Hightower's 80-yard touchdown carry against Atlanta. Without that run, the two are averaging a horrible 3.42ypc.

Baltimore Ravens – Ray Rice & Willis McGahee
Sure, everyone knows Rice is the better back who can do it all, but McGahee is key to Baltimore offense. While Rice gets most of the carries, McGahee can be depended on if needed. The only problem with the tandem is that coach John Harbaugh seems to think McGahee is a good short-yardage runner, especially inside the five yard line, when he's not. He had a fluky season last year with red zone carries and has already proved that this season. At the moment though, the tandem work well in relief for Quarterback Joe Flacco, and should carry Baltimore to an AFC North crown.

Carolina Panthers – DeAngelo Williams & Jonathan Stewart
In my opinion, this is the best two Running Back committee in the entire league. But in the win-loss column, Carolina is 0-5. That can't be held responsible at their feet though. Both guys are seeing at least eight guys in the box when they get the ball because rookie Quarterback Jimmy Clausen seemingly can't do anything. He's young, he'll learn (hopefully, for Panthers fans), so it'll take time for the offense to come alive again. In the draft, if the Panthers can add some more depth to their offensive line and maybe a Tight End, their luck should change. Williams and Stewart are better than 0-5. Carolina shot down trade rumours for Williams this week, and it's the best thing they can do right now.

Dallas Cowboys – Marion Barber & Felix Jones
It's sad to see that through four games, Felix Jones has only thirty seven carries (averaging 5.3ypc). This is a guy that averaged 5.9ypc last season. Barber has only five more carries, averaging 3.4ypc. Is it not clear to the coaching staff that Jones should be starting AND seeing more of the ball? Tony Romo has attempted 174 passes this season. That's 137 more attempts than Jones. Everybody's coming up with ideas about why the Cowboys are 1-3. They say they've got the wrong personnel, or a bad defense, but it's not. It's the play-calling. People are idiotic if they think Jerry Jones is going to fire Wade Phillips in favour of offensive coordinator Jason Garrett. If Garrett can't see that Felix Jones isn't getting enough touches, he deserves to be fired more than anyone.

Indianapolis Colts – Joseph Addai & Donald Brown
All the Colts need are Running Backs that can make things that little bit easier for Peyton Manning. If the running game was abandoned in Indy, they would still be fine, after all Manning is arguably the best of the best right now. Thankfully, Addai and Brown play a prominent role in the passing game too, much to Manning's delight. In the Colts system, the two are interchangeable. Last season, the two combined for 62 receptions. That might only be less than 10% of Manning's passes, but with the number of active and capable receivers at his disposal, it shows how many little times he's had to check down into throwing to his Back. With the two Backs being still relatively young, Manning and the Colts should be fine for the next three seasons at least.

Kansas City Chiefs – Jamaal Charles & Thomas Jones
Through four games, the Chiefs are third in the NFL in rushing. They would probably be higher if Charles had more carries (50 to Jones's 60) as he has a staggering 6.5ypc compared to Jones's 3.9. Charles and Jones are akin to the Titans' Smash and Dash of 2008 (Chris Johnson and LenDale White). Jones is the power runner, Charles is the guy who gets into space, escapes blockers, and scored big, long touchdowns. The only hindrance to the Chiefs offense is Quarterback Matt Cassel, who is only completing 54% of his throws. If the Chiefs get improved play from him, Charles and Jones can lead this team to big things. It's not out of the question that they make the playoffs this season, but I would say next year is a must for the young franchise.

Miami Dolphins – Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams
From what I've seen of the Dolphins, these two are the exact same back. It's hard to distinguish many differences between them. They have similar running styles, except Williams seems to hit tacklers with a lot more force than Brown. I think what stops the Dolphins being more successful in the run game is their persistence to stick with the option (Wildcat) formation. When defenses see the wildcat, they almost always stuff the A gap (the middle) or do a full-house blitz. What carried the formation's success was the threat that Brown would throw the ball or hand it back to Chad Henne for a throw. In ordinary situations however, the Dolphins have a solid running attack with Brown and Williams, and they will likely get more of the ball against some good pass-defenses in the upcoming month (vs. Pittsburgh; at Cincinnati).

New York Giants – Ahmad Bradshaw & Brandon Jacobs
After Jacobs' benching, Bradshaw has thrived, becoming the fourth leading rusher in the league. If Bradshaw were to go down however, I don't think Jacobs would perform as well as he did in 2008 (the year before he was paid the big bucks). Jacobs will likely be on another team next season, so this tandem doesn't have long together. In the meantime, the Giants are steady with the two backs, but are seemingly going further towards the passing game becoming the primary attack. You can't argue against that either with the way Hakeem Nicks has started (33 receptions, 409 yards, 6 touchdowns).

New York Jets – LaDainian Tomlinson & Shonn Greene
The NFL's best rushing team so far this season, and it's mainly thanks to Tomlinson, and not Greene. Many (including myself) saw Tomlinson as the reliever, the guy who comes in on passing downs and then the fourth quarter to kill off the game, but Tomlinson has obviously worked like mad during the off-season to get to where he is now. He's at 5.7ypc with 435 yards through five games. That's unimaginable for a guy who San Diego unceremoniously dumped last season. Greene is the apparent heir to Tomlinson now, like he was last year to Thomas Jones, and the Jets should feel comfortable that he can carry that mantle based on his production this season (4.5ypc so far). Going against the Broncos and their 25th ranked rushing defense, Tomlinson and Greene should combine for a big day this Sunday.

Philadelphia Eagles – LeSean McCoy & Jerome Harrison
This week the Eagles traded Mike Bell to Cleveland for Jerome Harrison. I don't understand the Browns thinking at all. What has Harrison done to coach Eric Mangini, seriously? Harrison ran for 561 yards in the Browns final three games last season. That's 187ypg. That's insane! Cleveland have gone with Peyton Hillis though. Sure, he's started well, but how can Harrison NOT start the season as the number one back? The Eagles got rid of the unimpressive Bell, who struggled to do anything in the their system, and have replaced him with an obviously very capable back in Harrison. That now gives the Eagles two similar guys in the backfield. Harrison will likely get more carries in power running situations, but he's also a capable receiver. McCoy will still get more snaps, and he has seemingly improved by leaps and bounds this season, but this could be an interesting competition come the end of the season. Either way, it's a win-win situation for the Eagles, who now have four different Quarterback and Running Back match-ups thanks to the injury flip-flops of Kolb and Vick. Most Eagles fans should feel confident of a win with most of the match ups.

Seattle Seahawks – Marshawn Lynch & Justin Forsett
Another tandem yet to play with each other, at least in the pros, Lynch and Forsett actually formed the backfield of the California Golden Bears in college in 2005. Great friends off the field, hopefully their friendship will translate to great production for the Seahawks offense. Lord knows they need something to bolster their 29th ranked rushing attack. However, with Hasselbeck throwing more interceptions than touchdowns, it might be difficult for the pair to get anything going unless Charlie Whitehurst starts, and starts well.

Week 6 Picks
Falcons @ Eagles
Chiefs @ Texans
Saints @ Buccaneers
Dolphins @ Packers
Chargers @ Rams
Ravens @ Patriots
Lions @ Giants
Browns @ Steelers
Seahawks @ Bears
Jets @ Broncos
Raiders @ 49ers
Cowboys @ Vikings
Colts @ Redskins
Titans @ Jaguars

Last week: 9-5
Overall: 50-26

Moss, Kolb and the Bears OL

The Moss Trade
The Patriots made another big move this week, trading Randy Moss to the team that drafted him, the Minnesota Vikings. It was surprising to some, but inevitable to others. Teams don't normally trade a future Hall of Fame receiver like Moss four weeks into the season, but the Patriots aren't a normal team. You can look back to last year, when they traded all-pro Defensive Lineman Richard Seymour to the Raiders just six days before the start of the season. They saw Seymour as past his peak, and decided to get good trade value while they still could. With Moss, it's a little different. Moss was a distraction in the locker room, he used press conferences as sympathy pleas for a new contract. The Patriots have been anticipating a trade though, you can see by their play. The Patriots have been playing a lot more snaps with two Tight End formations with the emerging Aaron Hernandez and fellow rookie Rob Gronkowski. For Moss to complain though, it's ridiculous. Now in Minnesota, he has the exact same contract, the only difference being the Vikings promise not to label him with the franchise tag at the end of the season. That allows the ever so faithful Moss to bolt at the end of the year (when Favre likely retires) to the highest bidder, much like when he left the Vikings the first time around in 2004, but this time, they won't get anything in return (The Raiders gave up a first round draft pick and Linebacker Napoleon Harris for his services).

Looking at the likeliest highest bidders for Moss, is there any doubt he doesn't sign with the Redskins? Owner Dan Snyder has splashed the cash many times in the past, and he won't hesitate to sign a true elite player like Moss. The Redskins need receivers, and McNabb almost managed to get Moss to join him in Philadelphia in 2009, so they will probably gel easily (Moss and Owens comparisons a plenty).

What do the Patriots do now? Well, they need a receiver, a veteran to line up outside. They can't expect the inexperienced Brandon Tate to fill in for Moss right away, so a pick-up of someone Brady knows and trusts like Deion Branch or Reche Caldwell would certainly help. I don't think the trade really affects Welker. Welker's play is normally a six yard gain per reception. He's a player that just chips and chips away at the defence, and rarely ever stretches the field. Tight End Aaron Hernandez will likely be the guy that stretches the field, which he's already started to do (three receptions over twenty yards, two over forty yards).


Kevin Kolb's Second Half Play vs. Redskins
I decided to take a look at what Kolb did in the second half against the Redskins this past week due to the fact most people buried his play. Down 17-6, the Eagles were primed to throw a lot, and Kolb struggled to an extent. It's not all his fault though. The offensive line play has been rather woeful for the Eagles this season, so the fault is shared by a lot of different players. Also, it can be hard for a Quarterback to adjust to a game he hasn't started.

- Kolb was nearly intercepted on three plays, two were bad throws, the other he was forced to scramble due to bad blocking.
- The Redskins defensive line didn't blitz once, but still managed to sack Kolb once. Bad blocking forced him out of the pocket, he tried to scramble, but was immediately tackled by Andre Carter.
- A lot of Kolb's throws were shovel passes, screens and short dump offs to Running Backs due to the fact the Redskins were only rushing four players at most on every play. Receivers like Jackson, Maclin and Avant were tied up, leaving Kolb to throw under for small to medium gains all day long.
- Left Tackle Jason Peters was ABUSED by Brian Orakpo. Orakpo forced Peters into holding him on a Kolb thirty-two yard scramble that was brought back.
- Kolb missed a lot of wide-open guys, notably frustrating to Maclin, who showed his colours on the sidelines after a replay showed he was wide open, while Kolb threw short of a first down.
- The touchdown was Kolb's only real successful throw of the day. He went to his safety blanket, Tight End Brent Celek, and threw a tight spiral over Linebacker London Fletcher into Celek's waiting hands, who was also being covered by Rocky McIntosh.
- With thirty seconds to play, the most perplexing and poignant play of the day occurred. The Eagles were third-and-one at their own thirty-five, and looking at the play-by-play (K.Kolb pass short right to 87-B.Celek to PHI 45 for 10 yards), you would think it was just a normal play. Well it wasn't. Not by a long shot. The play demonstrated the frailties of the Eagles Offensive Line. Six players stayed in to block the Redskins THREE MAN RUSH, and all three guys got thisclose to Kolb, nearly sacking him. Alas, Kolb managed to get the throw off. The genius of the play was what the Redskins Defensive Line actually did. Albert Haynesworth lined up as the fourth rusher, so Eagles linemen Todd Herremans and Mike McGlynn went to double team him. But instead of rushing the passer, Haynesworth dropped back, catching Herremans and McGlynn off their guard. That made it three good pass-rushers on four, and the confusion amongst the Offensive Line nearly caused their Quarterback to be sacked. Had they got to him, I'd say it was the best defensive play I'd seen this season, but Kolb just got the throw off in time. Kudos to Mike Shanahan for the idea though.
- With twenty-seven seconds to go, Kolb overthrew McCoy. The incompletion? Nothing. The fact that DeSean Jackson was wide open ten-yards further down field? Disastrous.

The final play of the game is the perfect example of how pundits and writers judge a player's performance. Kolb was trashed by the media to an extent, but had the final play resulted in a touchdown, he would have been lauded for his great play. Kolb sends up a Hail Mary towards Celek and Jason Avant. Avant gets his hands on it, but drops it into the hands of DeAngelo Hall. Ballgame. If Avant completes the catch, it's a completely different story. Sure, criticism would still come in on Kolb's overall play, but the Eagles would be 3-1, and not 2-2. This has resulted in many writers picking the 49ers to beat the Eagles, when in my opinion, I see the Eagles performing well against the fledgeling Niners.

At the end of the day though, the Eagles lost, and the most important factor was the way the Redskins defence smothered the Eagles offense into short throws. Per @movingthechains (Sheil Kapadia of philly.com), “73% of Kolb's attempts travelled five yards or less from the line of scrimmage. Take away the final drive, and that's 84%.”


The Bears Offensive Line
The G-Men sacked Jay Cutler NINE times last Sunday night, setting the record for most sacks in a half of football. The ninth and final sack on Cutler put him on the sidelines for the rest of the game and this week's upcoming game against Carolina. So here's a blow-by-blow (sorry, Jay) of each sack, highlighting exactly where the play went wrong.

1. The Play: 3-10-CHI 39 (13:36) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 35 for -4 yards (72-O.Umenyiora).
Snap-to-Sack: 3.945 seconds
Blockers vs. Rushers: 6 vs. 4
What Happened: Umenyiora performs a swim move, and blows through Brandon Manumaleuna, the Tight End Chicago brought in especially for his BLOCKING.
Hilarious note: LG Roberto Garza blocked NO ONE.

2. The Play: 1-10-MIDFIELD (10:11) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 41 for -9 yards (99-C.Canty).
Snap-to-Sack: 3.160 seconds
Blockers vs. Rushers: 6 vs. 4
What Happened: Chris Canty just about kills Roberto Garza.

3. The Play: 3-7-CHI 31 (14:27) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 22 for -9 yards (72-O.Umenyiora). FUMBLES (72-O.Umenyiora), recovered by CHI-57-O.Kreutz at CHI 23. 57-O.Kreutz to CHI 29 for 6 yards (96-B.Cofield). Officially, a sack for 2 yards.
Snap-to-Sack: 3.784 seconds
Blockers vs. Rushers: 7 vs. 4
What Happened: The Bears put GREG OLSEN on Osi Umenyiora. Why?! Olsen immediately panics and fails at a chop block.

4. The Play: 1-10-CHI 35 (11:25) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 28 for -7 yards (91-J.Tuck). FUMBLES (91-J.Tuck), recovered by CHI-22-M.Forte at CHI 23. 22-M.Forte to CHI 23 for no gain (99-C.Canty). Officially, a sack for 12 yards.
Snap-to-Sack: 3.878 seconds
Blockers vs. Rushers: 7 vs. 4
What Happened: Another failed blocking assignment by Manumaleuna. Tuck just steals his lunch money.

5. The Play: 3-19-CHI 26 (9:59) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 23 for -3 yards (72-O.Umenyiora). FUMBLES (72-O.Umenyiora), touched at CHI 25, RECOVERED by NYG-34-D.Grant at CHI 29. 34-D.Grant to CHI 29 for no gain (80-E.Bennett). Officially, a sack for 1 yard.
Snap-to-Sack: 3.845 seconds
Blockers vs. Rushers: 6 vs. 4
What Happened: Osi just blows by backup Left Tackle Frank Omiyale. He didn't have a chance.

6. The Play: 2-7-CHI 23 (7:05) 6-J.Cutler sacked ob at CHI 21 for -2 yards (sack split by 54-J.Goff and 96-B.Cofield).
Snap-to-Sack: N/A
Blockers vs. Rushers: 8 (EIGHT) vs. 4
What Happened: I didn't include the snap-to-sack time as Cutler scrambled out of the pocket. Eight guys against four though? There are no excuses for a play of negative yards.

7. The Play: 3-9-CHI 21 (6:26) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 12 for -9 yards (91-J.Tuck).
Snap-to-Sack: 3.887 seconds
Blockers vs. Rushers: 7 vs. 4
What Happened: The Offensive Line disintigrated and Right Tackle Kevin Shaffer just seemed to give up, enabling Justin Tuck to dive at Cutler.

8. The Play: 1-10-CHI 48 (5:07) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 39 for -9 yards (96-B.Cofield).
Snap-to-Sack: 2.818 seconds
Blockers vs. Rushers: 7 vs. 4
What Happened: Just an awful, awful attempt at blocking by Right Guard Lance Louis. Cofield just walks through him.

9. The Play: 1-10-CHI 19 (:58) 6-J.Cutler sacked at CHI 12 for -7 yards (31-A.Ross).
Snap-to-Sack: 3.197 seconds
Blockers vs. Rushers: 5 vs. 5
What Happened: The first play where Cutler is protected by the same number of guys coming after him? Of course he was gonna be sacked. Olsen goes into a route, leaving his man, Ross, to just go uncovered to Cutler. Ross wraps him up and dumps Cutler, smacking his head into the turf.

Result: A concussion for Cutler, and the Bears first loss of the season. On the eight timed snap-to-sacks, Cutler received on average 3.56 seconds to get the ball out. That's just not enough.

Before the season started, I wrote, “if Cutler keeps waiting and waiting behind a sieve of an offensive line, it won't be long before we see Todd Collins under center.” Boom. Week four. That didn't take long, did it?

Week 5 Picks
Jaguars @ Bills
Giants @ Texans
Chiefs @ Colts
Buccaneers @ Bengals
Packers @ Redskins
Rams @ Lions
Bears @ Panthers
Falcons @ Browns
Broncos @ Ravens
Saints @ Cardinals
Titans @ Cowboys
Chargers @ Raiders
Eagles @ 49ers
Vikings @ Jets

Last week: 11-3
Overall: 41-21

The Blindside

After reading Michael Lewis' The Blindside, I've become a lot more conscious of the presence of offensive line play in the NFL. Offensive linemen are often hidden in plain view, and the book goes into great detail of how the Left Tackle in particular goes about his business. The evolution of the Left Tackle, with more eyes on them than ever before, is because of the elite pass-rushers they have to go up against. As Lewis writes, it all started with Giants Outside Linebacker Lawrence Taylor, who made opposing coaches change their entire game-plan. Taylor was arguably the first elite, game-changing pass-rusher. He would line up opposing the Left Tackle, go around or through him, and then hit the Quarterback at his blind side (hence the name of the book). It's the point of weakness for all offences. It's the only area of the field the Quarterback can't see, so he has to be able to trust his Left Tackle to keep him safe. Obviously, this logic is based on the fact that most QBs are right handed. For left-handed QBs like Michael Vick and Matt Leinart, the best offensive tackle would then line up at Right Tackle.

Ever since reading the book, I've been intrigued by the battle between the Left Tackle and the pass rusher. I've found myself watching the battle more than actually watching the ball. So, for this week's column, I decided to look at two of the best Left Tackles in the game right now:


Jake Long (Miami Dolphins) vs. New York Jets
Long was the no1 overall pick in the 2008 draft, and he swiftly showed everyone that he was money well spent. If the Dolphins keep him happy, he should be there for fifteen years. Whether he's protecting QB Chad Henne or Running Backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams (when in the option formation, or 'wildcat'), they have nothing to worry about.

The Jets defense is renowned for being aggressive, hard-hitting and stubborn. They play the 3-4 defense and blitz a lot of men, a lot of the time, meaning Long would go up against different pass-rushers on each play. Sometimes he would be double-teamed too. I looked through every offensive play the Dolphins had in their 31-23 loss to the Jets, and this is what I found:

- On seventy-one offensive snaps, the Dolphins had double or triple protection (Running Backs, Linemen or Tight Ends) involving Long on only five of those plays.
- Those five plays came on passing downs, and not when Brown or Williams were taking the snap. The plays were decoys for run plays, but all turned into play-action. Two of the throws were deep, as they hoped the extra blocking and the hint of a run play would draw a safety so Marshall or Hartline would be one-on-one with the erratic Cromartie or the rookie Wilson. Of those five plays however, only one pass was completed, a seven yard gain to Hartline.
- He had trouble on only two plays. 1) A four yard run by Brown where Bryan Thomas managed to trip Brown. 2) On a third-and-ten, Thomas got thisclose to Henne before he got the throw off.
- Other problems on the offensive line really don't help him. On one play, Long and Incognito were lined up opposite two Jets pass-rushers. Long easily handles his man, but Incognito suffers from a lapse in concentration and lets Howard Green almost decapitate Henne.
- He lined up at Right Tackle for one snap – a wildcat play that finished with an end around the Left Tackle by Cobbs for a loss of six. The play was HORRIBLE.
- As I said, Bryan Thomas was the only Jet to give him any trouble. The other three starting Linebackers (Taylor, Harris, Scott) didn't get to breathe anywhere near Henne when Long was on them.
- There were two plays that stood out in particular when watching Long. The first was the eleven yard Touchdown pass to Brandon Marshall. The Jets blitz as it's third-and-one. Long gets matched up with two pass-rushers (Gholston and Cummings) and obliterates them, making them crash into each other, giving Henne all the time in the world to throw it to Marshall for the score. The second play was similar. On first-and-ten on the final drive of the game, the Jets blitz again. This time, Long faces Bryan Thomas, the only guy to make any sort of impact against him, and Drew Coleman. Long simply pushes Thomas back, and he stumbles into Coleman. Two birds, one stone. The result? A thirty yard pass to Marshall. Two Jets blitzes with two men on Long, two completed passes for forty one yards and a touchdown. I think the Jets can do that normally, but right now, when all-world Cornerback Darrelle Revis is out injured, they can't afford to free up those passing lanes for opposing offenses.

So what can you take from all of this? Well, for starters, despite it being only one game, everyone who watched Jake Long saw a great offensive tackle. The Dolphins are wasting their time putting in extra blockers on his side, when they could be using those guys as extra receivers. Despite the offense playing largely a good game, it's clear that the Dolphins could use an early round draft pick next year on an interior lineman to tighten things up. Richie Incognito has been playing good at Left Guard, but at times in this game he showed that he's certainly not the best Guard in the league by any measure.


Ryan Clady (Denver Broncos) vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Broncos spent their first overall pick in the 2008 draft (no12) on Boise State's Clady, and like Long, he has established himself as a very dependable NFL Left Tackle. This past Sunday he was challenged with protecting Quarterback Kyle Orton from one of the best pass-rushers in the league in the Colts' Dwight Freeney.

- On seventy-eight offensive snaps, nine featured double team protection on the left-side of the offensive line. Eight of them were passing downs, predominantly on third down. On most of those plays it was Clady and someone else blocking only Freeney, which in my eyes tells you the respect opposing coaches have for Freeney, not the frailties Denver see in Clady (at all).
- Clady handled Freeney very well, forcing him to rush the A gap (between the Center and a Guard) more often as the game progressed.
- Despite the little number of double teams, it surprised me that a considerable amount of the run plays were to the right, and not the left, where Clady is. Laurence Maroney, picked up in a trade with the Patriots is a horrible, horrible Running Back. He played a part in helping the Broncos lose this game (27-13) as he was just terrible. It wouldn't have mattered had there been five Ryan Cladys playing on the offensive line, he would have likely produced the same numbers (twelve rushes for twenty-four yards). He is a terrible runner who dances forever at the offensive line before being tackled (either by a defender, or by tripping over his own teammates).

Until Knowshon Moreno returns from injury, or the Broncos give more carries to Correll Buckhalter, the Broncos should just air it out against the Titans this week (despite the Titans having a solid group of defensive backs) because Maroney is stifling the team's potential. Clady's pass protection looks to be exquisite, so why shouldn't the Broncos play to their strengths - despite playing against their opponents best strength?

Week 4 Picks
Jets @ Bills
Bengals @ Browns
Broncos @ Titans
Panthers @ Saints
Lions @ Packers
Seahawks @ Rams
49ers @ Falcons
Ravens @ Steelers
Texans @ Raiders
Colts @ Jaguars
Redskins @ Eagles
Cardinals @ Chargers
Bears @ Giants
Patriots @ Dolphins

Last week: 10-6
Overall: 30-18