Luckily for the NFL, the off-season pretty much only lasts two months. Soon enough you've got the college prospects holding their pro days, the draft, mini camps and training camps, and before you know it, the pre-season has come back around.
The only hitch this off-season is whether the NFL and NFLPA can formulate a new collective bargaining agreement so we don't have a lockout on our hands (what on earth will I do without the NFL for a year?)
Anyway, we have four teams left, so let's get to the games...
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
They split their two divisional games this season, most recently with the Packers winning 10-3 to get into the playoffs in week 17 against a Bears team with nothing to play for. The media have spent most of the week talking about two things:
1) Soldier Field. We all know the field is ridiculously high-school-level and shouldn't be played on, but it's the NFL. These guys are pros and should be able to play on sand if called to. I think Aaron Rodgers could play on gravel and put up four touchdowns at this rate with his recent form (well, maybe not). The field has been said to be in 'better shape' this week, but you can't drastically improve a field in just over a week. If it's dry in Chicago tonight, there shouldn't really be a problem, but if the weather turns and the field becomes muddy, this could be a very defensive game.
2) Referee Terry McAulay. The first matchup between these two in week three was officiated by McAulay's crew, who called the Packers for 19 penalties (18 accepted). The media have yammered on all week about how this will impact the game, but it's a moot point. In the playoffs, head referees don't officiate with their usual crews. The best back judges, line judges, etc. get the nod and their rightful place in the playoffs. Terry McAulay didn't throw all 19 flags in that game, did he?
I think it's a difficult game to predict, obviously it's between two of the NFL's best teams, and games like this are always tough to pick. I think the Packers edge out the Bears. I just see the Packers offense and Jay Cutler's weekly brain fart to hamper the Bears. The Packers passing attack is vastly superior to the Bears' and Cutler will be throwing at Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams, who are playing like lockdown-corners right now.
Prediction: Packers 24 Bears 20
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The Jets have been here before. They beat Pittsburgh in the snow in week 15. Two major factors in that game favoured the Jets considerably though:
1) Brad Smith's kickoff return touchdown to open the game. You can't bank on a KR TD every time you play the Steelers. Maybe in 2009, when their special teams unit gave up four KR TDs. Smith had no other impact in the game, rushing once for two yards being his only other contribution.
2) The absence of Troy Polamalu. With no Polamalu, there was a massive hole in the Steeler D. Mark Sanchez was sacked only once, something I expect the Steelers to do repeatedly tonight. The addition of Polamalu changes the game so much. Don't expect to see Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards team up for 14 catches and 140 yards again. Polamalu will be blitzing a lot in this game to begin with, and dropping back when the Steelers take the lead (which they will). Mark my words, Polamalu will have a huge impact on the outcome of this game.
So what do the Jets do to combat the Steelers? On offense they can't stick with the run-game, because eventually they will just end up going three-and-out constantly. The Steelers run defense gave up a staggering 62.8 yards per game, 27.3 yards less than the second-ranked Bears (the Jets were third with 90.9 ypg), and that's a wall that just isn't going to break. Dustin Keller might have to take the game on his shoulders and go up and get some balls he might not want to -- when Polamalu could be gearing up to knock his head off.
On defense, the alignment of all-world cornerback Darrelle Revis is an issue. Where do you play him? In week 15, Mike Wallace and Emmanuel Sanders combined for 180 yards, while Revis, who was covering Hines Ward, had two catches for 34 yards. I don't see Ward as the main threat in this game. I'd line up Antonio Cromartie with Ward, and have Revis playing man on Mike Wallace. Drop safety Brodney Pool to shadow Ward/Sanders and have Eric Smith blitzing regularly. Then again, I'm not Rex Ryan, and he could surprise us with his selections.
I think this game comes down to who can sack the other team's quarterback the most, and with Troy Polamalu back on board, I can't pick against Pittsburgh.
Prediction: Jets 13 Steelers 17
Here's a reminder of what tonight is all about, courtesy of NFL.com
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