The games, in order of awesomeness.
1. Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The nastiest game of the weekend is this one right here, though I'm sure Hines Ward will still be smiling at the end of it. The key to this game of course, is to score. But it's so important here, especially for the Ravens to get an early lead. I'm basing this on the differences between all-pro safeties Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu. If the Ravens can get a lead, they can expect to see Polamalu in the box more often -- and on some occasions blitzing. Now in the second game between these two, Polamalu sacked Joe Flacco, forcing a turnover, and three plays later the Steelers took the lead for good. Now, if the Ravens get the lead here, you have to think they will keep extra blockers in to combat the pass-rush of Polamalu specifically, either that, or offensive coordinator Cam Cameron needs to draw up plenty of two-step and three-step drop passes for Flacco so he can get rid of the ball as soon as possible. If he does neither, you can expect the same outcome, a Steelers win.
On the other side of the ball, if the Ravens do in fact have a lead, you can expect Ed Reed to play center field. Reed doesn't go after the QB like Polamalu does -- he watches. One errant pass, one lack of disregard, one momentary lapse of concentration by Ben Roethlisberger, and the ball will land in Reed's lap. The play of these two safeties will likely shape the game.
Prediction: Ravens 13 Steelers 16
The Falcons host a playoff game for the first time since 2004, and it couldn't come against a worse opponent. Atlanta must have been praying for an Eagles victory last week, handing them the Seahawks, but it wasn't to be. I honestly have no idea who's gonna win this. The key man for the Falcons is Matt Ryan. A lot is resting on his shoulders, because the Packers aren't just any other team. Dom Capers is gonna throw plenty of confusing looks at him. The key to the game is converting third downs. When Ryan looks to his typical third-down target in Tony Gonzalez, he might have to look elsewhere as the all-pro Tight End will likely be covered by Charles Woodson. On those plays, Tramon Williams will be on Roddy White. So taking away his top two targets (like last week with the Eagles -- taking away DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin), it's important that Ryan looks to his lesser guys. Players like Harry Douglas, Mike Jenkins, Brian Finneran and Eric Weems need to be open for the Falcons to win this.
As for the Packers, the key is to improve the run-game with James Starks and utilise the slot-game in passing downs. Why the slot-game? Nickel corner back Brian Williams is doubtful for Atlanta, and the slot-receivers will be going against the inexperienced Chris Owens. Starks big game last week can be credited in part to the Eagles, who had no game-plan for a Packers running back to be actually competent (and why should they have been? Rodgers led the team in rushing in multiple games this season.) The Eagles should have adjusted, and they did somewhat, but Starks' 23 attempts for 123 yards is still impressive. With a week of watching the film of that game, Falcons coach Mike Smith will have plenty to work with, considering Starks rushed only 29 times all season prior to last week. With the Packers new three-headed running formation, the Eagles film will be all that he needs.
Prediction: Packers 30 Falcons 27
It's easily the most hyped game of the week, and not just because of Antonio Cromartie's choice words about Tom Brady, but it's not going to be competitive. Don't get me wrong, I don't expect the Patriots drop 45 points on them like they did in week 13, but I don't see it being close either. The key man for the Patriots is of course Tom Brady. He's easily the MVP this season, and he's led New England into a new era, an era of balance. Not one skill player sticks out. But all together, they're by far the most dangerous team in the league. If Brady plays half as well as he did in week 13, the Patriots win this handily.
With the Jets, it's a lot more complicated. They need the run-pass balance they had last week against the Colts. LaDainian Tomlinson was a revelation last week, with an efficient 82 yards on 16 carries (and two scores). That 5.1 yards-per-carry is incredibly important in a game like this. The Jets have to play keep-away from the Brady Bunch, and not stray from it. Then again, it's likely the Patriots will jump out to an early lead, and the Jets won't be able to afford to just run the ball, so it could be a tough day for Mr. Mark Sanchez. Santonio Holmes needs to earn his paycheck in this game (for once).
Prediction: Jets 17 Patriots 31
The Seahawks had no chance to win last week, but they did. The Seahawks have no chance to win this week, and they won't. The Bears defense isn't as soft as the Saints. the Front-7 features absolute beasts like Julius Peppers, Tommy Harris, Israel Idonije, Lance Briggs, and of course Brian Urlacher. Don't expect to see Marshawn Lynch stiff-arming any of those guys. With that front-7, the Seahawks will be throwing alot, right into a strict cover-2 defense that will pray upon Matthew Hasslebeck. I can't see how Seattle scores many points in this game, and against this defense.
The hope for Seattle is probably their own defense and special teams. They have one of the best special team units in the league (despite giving up a punt-return touchdown to Devin Hester earlier this season) and should be able to pin Jay Cutler and the Bears offense deep in their own territory. The Seahawk defense needs to do what any other defense would do against the Bears. Blitz. Blitz like mad. When Cutler is rattled, we all know what happens. He throws interceptions, and takes way too many sacks. Obviously, sometimes he can't help it, he is behind a tremendously bad offensive line, but some blame has to be taken on his part.
Prediction: Seahawks 13 Bears 24
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