Jets @ Colts
A repeat of last year's AFC Championship game, Jets coach Rex Ryan will be looking to settle the score. In that game, the Jets led 17-6, before Manning fired three touchdown passes and the Colts ran out 30-17 winners. As expected in that game, Darrelle Revis shut down Reggie Wayne (3rec, 55yds) but it didn't matter as Garcon and Collie combined for 18 catches, 274 yards and two touchdowns. With Antonio Cromartie added to the mix this season, and likely to be shadowing Garcon in this game, it leaves the Colts with a hole to fill. A hole named Austin Collie. Collie went on IR a couple of weeks ago, meaning backups Jacob Tamme and Blair White are going to have to shine for the Colts to win here.
The key to the Jets winning this game is simple – play keep-away from Manning. The Jets need to run the ball with LT, Greene and McKnight against the Colts porous run defense if they're gonna stand a chance of advancing to the divisional round. You can't expect Sanchez to lead the Jets, not after the way he's collapsed this season (save for the Pittsburgh game).
Prediction: Jets 17 Colts 24
With the way the Chiefs crashed at home to the Raiders last week, it's gonna be hard to install confidence in their fans for this match-up. If any confidence is going to surface, it's through Jamaal Charles and the resurgence of a connection between Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe. The only trouble is, Ed Reed has been playing out of his skin lately (four interceptions in two games) and the Ravens D will be double covering Bowe. The hope for the Chiefs runs through Jamaal Charles breaking off big gains and Tony Moeaki playing like Tony Gonzalez (which he's accomplished at times this year).
I don't see any reason why the Ravens shouldn't win this game. Anquan Boldin will be covered by Brandon Flowers with Eric Berry shadowing behind, but it won't matter. The Ravens have too many weapons – Rice, Heap and Mason being the stand-outs in my opinion for this game.
Prediction: Ravens 31 Chiefs 21
Saints @ Seahawks
The Seahawks are the first team in NFL history to reach the playoffs with a losing record (7-9), which just shows how bad the NFC West is. On the flip side, there's the Saints (11-5), who look unbeatable right now. Reggie Bush is back and he and Brees have connected 21 times in the last four games, but that's not the big story here, that would be what the Saints are going to do on the ground. Pierre Thomas just landed on IR and Chris Ivory is done for the year, leaving the Saints backfield being run by Bush, Julius Jones and the newest addition, Joique Bell. While the backfield is beat up, just like the Colts has been this season, it likely won't matter. No one is more accurate than Brees (68.1% pass completion this season) and he's one of a small group of QBs who can operate with no run-game.
The Seahawks need a prayer. Aside from their opening drive against the Rams in the win-and-in game last Sunday (six plays, 87 yards, touchdown) they were terrible. Their hope in this game comes in playing keep-away with Justin Forsett, and not Lynch. Forsett is a much better option than Lynch, hell, even Leon Washington is a better option. Speaking of Washington, his impact in the return game will be huge if he can consistently give the Hawks good field position.
Prediction: Saints 38 Seahawks 17
Along with Colts-Jets, arguably the marquee game of the week. Everybody's talking about how the Packers will win based on the performance of the Vikings' Antoine Winfield two weeks ago. Winfield was sent on corner-blitzes many times against the Eagles, successfully sacking Michael Vick twice, with one resulting in a forced fumble being returned for a touchdown. Like many have said, this is the blueprint for the Packers success here. The Packers corner-blitz a lot with Charles Woodson, but it's not a foregone conclusion that his blitzes will quieten Vick. After all, it was on corner-blitzes that Vick ripped off gains of 35 and 33 against the Giants in week 15. If any defensive coordinator is gonna have a shot at shutting Vick down, stopping him from scrambling for these massive gains, it's Dom Capers. When the Eagles met the Packers in week one, and Kevin Kolb went down with a concussion, Vick stepped in and promptly ran for 103 yards on 11 carries. It's hard for a team to prepare for a running Quarterback like Vick, nevermind adjust to one within a game. With preparation, I expect the Packers to be able to stop Vick, maybe even using Clay Matthews as a spy. If he isn't a spy, I imagine he'll blitz on 90% of his snaps.
A plus for the Packers is their secondary. Tramon Williams and Charles Woodson have played expertly this season, and Williams' Pro Bowl snub is just ridiculous. With those two covering DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, it forces guys like Brent Celek and Jason Avant to step up. LeSean McCoy is my x-factor for the Eagles however. Last week, Matt Forte ripped off big gains on the Packers D on runs around right-tackle and in the screen game (8 rec, 60 yards). The Eagles maybe the best team that play the screen game in the NFL.
On the other side of the ball, Aaron Rodgers will likely have a massive game. Asante Samuel is back, and will cover Greg Jennings, but the rest of the Eagles secondary is beat up and struggling to cover anyone. Donald Driver and James Jones will shine in this game.
Prediction: Packers 34 Eagles 31
Predictions
Back in early September, I attempted an experiment where I ranked each team by evaluating each position, their coaching and their schedule. Only six of the top ten made the playoffs (Saints, Jets, Colts, Ravens, Steelers, Patriots). I whiffed on the Chiefs (23) by those evaluations, but the Seahawks ranking (28) is probably still accurate.
As for my predictions, I perfectly predicted the standings in only the AFC East but wasn't too far out in many of the records. I missed big on the Cowboys (11-5), 49ers (11-5) and Chiefs (5-11).
Quick Thoughts on Changes
- The Texans hired Wade Phillips as defensive coordinator. Houston will move to a 3-4 and Mario Williams will get AT LEAST 14 sacks next season. He'll take the DeMarcus Ware beast role.
- The Browns fired Eric Mangini. GM Mike Holmgren shouldn't take the job himself, he should know better after he admitted to being burnt out when he left the Seahawks. I'd be shocked if they don't hire someone on agent Bob LaMonte's client list (Holmgren is also on there).
- The Titans are dumping QB Vince Young in favour of coach Jeff Fisher. A surprising move, considering Titans owner Bud Adams 'really liked' Young. What's next for the Titans at the QB position then? The Titans have the eighth pick in the draft, and could go with a rookie like Jake Locker or Cam Newton, or pick up a veteran FA like Donovan McNabb. Matt Leinart could be a dark horse.
- Everyone is talking about Jim Harbaugh. The Stanford coach is destined to earn the big bucks of the NFL, and the Dolphins have emerged as favourites. Most people (Panthers fans) are clamouring for a Harbaugh and QB Andrew Luck reunion (Luck is the projected number one overall pick if he declares for the draft), but I can see Harbaugh taking more money to go to Miami.
- The Raiders fired Tom Cable. A baffling decision considering the Raiders turnaround this season (6-0 vs. AFC West), but I guess it's just Al (Davis) being Al. Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is the top candidate.
- The Vikings made interim Head Coach Leslie Frazier the permanent selection. Definitely the right decision.
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